The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 75 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 59

Wilder than 59% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockKentucky over Texas A&M2.9% chance · won 31-21
  • Runner-upSE Louisiana over Louisiana-Monroe12% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Virginia15% chance · won 38-27

Fallout

1.4 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Ole Miss +17Mississippi State +12Michigan +10Texas A&M -36SMU -13Boise State -11

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET

Michigan State#3Notre Dame

Final MSU 10, ND 27

ModelND −34.8MarketND −28.5

Notre Dame playoff odds
L 46%W 83%

Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET

UTSA#9Texas

Final UTSA 6, TEX 30

ModelTEX −25.5MarketTEX −29.5

Texas playoff odds
L 34%W 70%

Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET

Utah State#6Utah

Final USU 0, UTAH 33

ModelUTAH −38.8MarketUTAH −27.5

Utah playoff odds
L 34%W 69%

Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET

Kentucky#8Texas A&M

Final UK 31, TA&M 21

ModelTA&M −29.3MarketTA&M −16.5

Texas A&M playoff odds
L 21%W 54%

Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET

#7GeorgiaArkansas

Final UGA 45, ARK 17

ModelUGA −21.1MarketUGA −24.5

Georgia playoff odds
L 29%W 62%

Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET

Florida State#5Alabama

Final FSU 36, ALA 50

ModelALA −26.4MarketALA −19.5

Alabama playoff odds
L 42%W 74%

Sat, Sep 19 · 7:30 PM ET

#15LSU#12Ole Miss

Final LSU 24, MISS 32

ModelMISS −5.4MarketLSU −3.0

Ole Miss playoff odds
L 20%W 50%

Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET

Buffalo#10Penn State

Final BUF 13, PSU 55

ModelPSU −44.4MarketPSU −39.5

Penn State playoff odds
L 5.9%W 36%

The 8 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 13 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@Delaware
40%
60%
14
22
✓
DEL −4.1
DEL −4.5
0.4 → CCU
Little playoff impact
Final
Kent State@#2Ohio State
<0.1%
>99%
3
59
✓
OSU −62.0
OSU −52.5
9.5 → OSU
Little playoff impact
Final
#7Georgia@Arkansas
90%
10%
45
17
✓
UGA −21.1
UGA −24.5open UGA −17.5
3.6 → UGA
UGA playoff odds
L 29%W 62%
Final
Buffalo@#10Penn State
0.4%
>99%
13
55
✓
PSU −44.4
PSU −39.5
4.9 → PSU
PSU playoff odds
L 5.9%W 36%
Final
Tulane@#22Kansas State
16%
84%
20
31
✓
KSU −16.6
KSU −20.5
3.9 → TULN
KSU playoff odds
L 6.1%W 21%
Final
North Texas@Texas StateUpset
79%
21%
35
49
✗
UNT −13.1
TXST −3.0
16.1 → UNT
UNT playoff odds
L 5.6%W 22%
Final
Bowling Green@Iowa State
1.3%
99%
7
55
✓
ISU −36.8
ISU −23.5open ISU −22.5
14.3 → ISU
ISU playoff odds
L 1.7%W 5.2%
Final
Arizona StatevsKansas
62%
38%
24
17
✓
ASU −5.2
ASU −5.5
0.3 → KU
ASU playoff odds
L 0.2%W 3.4%
Final
North Carolina@Clemson
24%
76%
20
28
✓
CLEM −11.4
CLEM −3.0open CLEM −9.5
1.9 → CLEM
Little playoff impact
Final
Akron@Minnesota
10%
90%
7
41
✓
MINN −20.7
MINN −22.5open MINN −26.5
5.8 → AKR
Little playoff impact
Final
Eastern Michigan@Wisconsin
7.4%
93%
10
54
✓
WIS −23.9
WIS −23.5open WIS −24.5
0.6 → EMU
Little playoff impact
Final
NC State@#25Vanderbilt
22%
78%
31
35
✓
VAN −12.6
VAN −3.0open VAN −4.0
8.6 → VAN
VAN playoff odds
L 2.2%W 12%
Final
Wyoming@Central Michigan
44%
56%
10
24
✓
CMU −2.6
WYO −1.5open CMU −2.5
0.1 → CMU
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Temple@Toledo
13%
87%
48
49
✓
TOL −18.6
TOL −5.5open TOL −4.0
14.6 → TOL
Little playoff impact
Final
Florida State@#5Alabama
5.5%
94%
36
50
✓
ALA −26.4
ALA −19.5open ALA −15.5
10.9 → ALA
ALA playoff odds
L 42%W 74%
Final
Utah State@#6Utah
0.9%
99%
0
33
✓
UTAH −38.8
UTAH −27.5
11.3 → UTAH
UTAH playoff odds
L 34%W 69%
Final
Kentucky@#8Texas A&MUpset
3.8%
96%
31
21
✗
TA&M −29.3
TA&M −16.5open TA&M −15.5
13.8 → TA&M
TA&M playoff odds
L 21%W 54%
Final
#16USC@Rutgers
92%
7.6%
42
35
✓
USC −23.6
USC −21.0open USC −24.5
0.9 → RUTG
USC playoff odds
L 4.7%W 24%
Final
#19SMU@#23Louisville
46%
54%
31
41
✓
LOU −1.7
LOU −2.5open LOU −1.5
0.2 → LOU
SMU playoff odds
L 10%W 38%
Final
UTEP@Michigan
0.9%
99%
17
52
✓
MICH −38.8
MICH −34.5open MICH −36.5
2.3 → MICH
MICH playoff odds
L 2.0%W 10%
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
16%
84%
31
35
✓
CIN −16.1
CIN −14.5open CIN −15.5
0.6 → CIN
CIN playoff odds
L 0.3%W 2.5%
Final
Western Kentucky@#1Indiana
<0.1%
>99%
0
38
✓
IU −54.6
IU −44.5
10.1 → IU
Little playoff impact
Final
Stanford@Duke
6.4%
94%
7
35
✓
DUKE −25.1
DUKE −10.0
15.1 → DUKE
DUKE playoff odds
L 0.7%W 8.5%
Final
Louisiana Tech@Baylor
16%
84%
19
36
✓
BAY −16.1
BAY −19.5open BAY −17.5
1.4 → LT
Little playoff impact
Final
Ball State@Liberty
21%
79%
15
51
✓
LIB −13.1
LIB −14.0open LIB −14.5
1.4 → BALL
Little playoff impact
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
40%
60%
41
34
✗
SC −4.1
SC −3.5open SC −7.5
3.4 → MSST
MSST playoff odds
L 2.0%W 11%
Final
East Carolina@Old Dominion
40%
60%
20
17
✗
ODU −4.2
ODU −2.5
1.7 → ODU
Little playoff impact
Final
Charlotte@Appalachian State
7.4%
93%
21
26
✓
APP −23.9
APP −17.5open APP −19.5
4.4 → APP
Little playoff impact
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
52%
48%
10
16
✗
FIU −0.7
FAU −6.5open FAU −7.5
8.2 → FIU
Little playoff impact
Final
Marshall@Missouri State
44%
56%
30
24
✗
MOST −2.3
MRSH −4.0open MRSH −4.5
6.8 → MOST
Little playoff impact

Prime time 19 games

Final
Troy@#21Missouri
2.9%
97%
17
27
✓
MIZ −31.3
MIZ −27.5
3.8 → MIZ
MIZ playoff odds
L 3.9%W 19%
Final
Florida@Auburn
40%
60%
44
39
✗
AUB −4.1
FLA −2.5open AUB −1.5
2.6 → AUB
FLA playoff odds
L 2.3%W 13%
Final
Georgia State@UCF
12%
88%
30
44
✓
UCF −19.4
UCF −17.5open UCF −21.0
1.6 → GAST
Little playoff impact
Final
Western Michigan@Rice
83%
17%
28
21
✓
WMU −15.7
WMU −8.5open WMU −11.5
4.2 → WMU
Little playoff impact
Final
Ohio@South Alabama
45%
55%
36
41
✓
USA −2.0
USA −7.0open USA −3.5
1.5 → OHIO
Little playoff impact
Final
UConn@Southern Miss
55%
45%
48
20
✓
CONN −2.2
CONN −3.0open CONN −2.5
0.3 → USM
Little playoff impact
Final
Georgia Southern@Jacksonville State
46%
54%
27
31
✓
JXST −1.7
JXST −3.5open JXST −2.5
0.8 → GASO
Little playoff impact
Final
Nevada@Middle Tennessee
52%
48%
20
27
✗
NEV −0.9
NEV −3.5open NEV −6.5
5.6 → MTSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Michigan State@#3Notre Dame
1.7%
98%
10
27
✓
ND −34.8
ND −28.5open ND −29.5
5.3 → ND
ND playoff odds
L 46%W 83%
Final
#15LSU@#12Ole Miss
37%
63%
24
32
✓
MISS −5.4
LSU −3.0open MISS −1.5
3.9 → MISS
MISS playoff odds
L 20%W 50%
Final
#14BYU@Colorado State
94%
6.1%
41
23
✓
BYU −25.6
BYU −17.5open BYU −21.0
4.6 → BYU
BYU playoff odds
L 15%W 39%
Final
New Mexico@#20Oklahoma
12%
88%
6
14
✓
OU −19.6
OU −21.5open OU −23.5
3.9 → UNM
OU playoff odds
L 3.1%W 17%
Final
West Virginiavs#24VirginiaUpset
17%
83%
38
27
✗
UVA −15.6
UVA −10.5open UVA −8.5
7.1 → UVA
UVA playoff odds
L 4.5%W 13%
Final
Virginia Tech@Maryland
31%
69%
35
26
✗
MD −8.2
VT −2.5open VT −1.5
9.7 → MD
MD playoff odds
L 0.2%W 2.9%
Final
Colorado@Northwestern
40%
60%
7
41
✓
NU −4.3
NU −3.5open NU −4.5
0.2 → COLO
COLO playoff odds
L 0.4%W 2.5%
Final
Kennesaw State@#13Tennessee
1.2%
99%
9
42
✓
TENN −37.4
TENN −35.5open TENN −34.5
2.9 → TENN
TENN playoff odds
L 9.1%W 32%
Final
UTSA@#9Texas
6.1%
94%
6
30
✓
TEX −25.5
TEX −29.5
4.0 → UTSA
TEX playoff odds
L 34%W 70%
Final
Arkansas State@TCU
9.5%
90%
7
31
✓
TCU −21.6
TCU −18.5open TCU −20.5
1.1 → TCU
Little playoff impact
Final
UAB@Louisiana
18%
82%
14
21
✓
UL −15.3
UL −7.0open UL −10.0
5.3 → UL
Little playoff impact

Late night 5 games

Final
James Madison@San Diego State
66%
34%
26
13
✓
JMU −6.9
SDSU −2.5open SDSU −1.5
8.4 → JMU
JMU playoff odds
L 4.6%W 20%
Final
Northern Illinois@Arizona
1.6%
98%
17
42
✓
ARIZ −35.4
ARIZ −33.5open ARIZ −35.5
0.1 → NIU
ARIZ playoff odds
L <0.1%W 4.1%
Final
North Dakota State@Sacramento State
57%
43%
31
10
✓
NDSU −2.8
NDSU −26.5open NDSU −23.5
20.7 → SAC
Little playoff impact
Final
Purdue@UCLA
14%
86%
38
52
✓
UCLA −17.8
UCLA −14.0
3.8 → UCLA
UCLA playoff odds
L 0.2%W 2.5%
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
68%
32%
26
10
✓
FRES −7.8
FRES −5.5open FRES −7.5
0.3 → FRES
Little playoff impact

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Thu, Sep 17Syracuse 13, Pittsburgh 27 Pittsburgh −22.9 ✓8.93.5
Fri, Sep 18Miami (FL) 33, Wake Forest 20 Miami (FL) −21.5 ✓8.57.5
Fri, Sep 18Houston 26, Texas Tech 28 Texas Tech −18.7 ✓16.75.5

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 18 · 10:30 PM ET Portland State at #11 Oregon Oregon −59.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET Mercer at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −40.8 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 2:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −47.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 2:00 PM ET Maine at Boston College Boston College −31.6 97%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Duquesne at Washington State Washington State −40.0 99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Wagner at California California −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET Stonehill at UMass UMass −16.4 84%
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at #18 Iowa Iowa −56.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 4:30 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −15.0 82%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Delaware State at USF USF −47.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Memphis Memphis −43.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −28.6 96%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Sam Houston Sam Houston −14.5 81%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:15 PM ET Eastern Washington at Washington Washington −51.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 7:15 PM ET North Dakota at Nebraska Nebraska −49.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM ET East Texas A&M at Tulsa Tulsa −24.9 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · 10:00 PM ET South Dakota at Boise State Boise State −50.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ET Montana at Oregon State Oregon State −27.4 95%