Week 1 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 99 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 56

Wilder than 56% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.9 expected

Biggest shockUMass over Rutgers3.7% chance · won 37-21
Runner-upIdaho State over Utah State4.5% chance · won 29-17
Runner-upThe Citadel over Charlotte8.7% chance · won 43-41

Upsets

UMass 37, Rutgers 21UMass won; the model gave them 5% before kickoff

Sat, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

North Carolinavs

TCU

36%
64%

15
10

✗

TCU −6.0

TCU −7.5

–

Afternoon 4 games

Final

San Jose State@

#9USC

4.7%
95%

26
42

✓

USC −27.6

USC −37.5open USC −35.5

–

Final

NC State@

Virginia

54%
46%

8
34

✗

NCSU −1.8

UVA −4.0

–

Final

Jacksonville State@

North Dakota State

63%
37%

7
33

✗

JXST −5.5

NDSU −6.5open NDSU −10.0

–

Final

Sacramento State@

Eastern Michigan

53%
47%

17
28

✗

SAC −1.3

EMU −9.5open EMU −8.5

–

Prime time 2 games

Final

Hawaii@

Stanford

45%
55%

27
37

✓

STAN −2.1

STAN −4.5open STAN −3.0

–

Final

New Mexico State@

Florida State

5.4%
95%

17
34

✓

FSU −26.6

FSU −30.5open FSU −28.5

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Memphis@

UNLV

43%
57%

27
21

✗

UNLV −2.9

UNLV −4.5open UNLV −3.0

–

Thu, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

UMass@

RutgersUpset

4.8%
95%

37
21

✗

RUTG −27.5

RUTG −29.5open RUTG −30.5

–

Prime time 3 games

Final

Akron@

Wake Forest

27%
73%

16
38

✓

WAKE −10.1

WAKE −27.5open WAKE −22.5

–

Final

Colorado@

Georgia Tech

30%
70%

14
13

✗

GT −8.8

GT −6.5open GT −7.0

–

Final

UAB@

Illinois

20%
80%

23
42

✓

ILL −14.1

ILL −25.5open ILL −27.5

–

Fri, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

San Jose State@

Eastern Michigan

43%
57%

27
21

✗

EMU −3.0

EMU −1.5open EMU −3.5

–

Prime time 4 games

Final

UTEP@

#12Oklahoma

2.4%
98%

0
51

✓

OU −32.7

OU −40.5

–

Final

Toledo@

Michigan State

48%
52%

20
30

✓

MSU −0.8

MSU −10.0open MSU −10.5

–

Final

#7Miami (FL)@

Stanford

86%
14%

45
6

✓

MIA −18.1

MIA −24.5open MIA −21.5

–

Final

Fresno State@

#9USC

8.3%
92%

0
39

✓

USC −22.8

USC −21.5open USC −23.5

–

Sat, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

East Carolina@

#8Alabama

10.0%
90%

10
48

✓

ALA −21.2

ALA −28.5open ALA −25.5

–

Final

Oregon State@

Houston

18%
82%

20
33

✓

HOU −15.0

HOU −21.0open HOU −18.5

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@

West Virginia

25%
75%

24
31

✓

WVU −11.0

WVU −21.0open WVU −17.5

–

Final

North Texas@

#14Indiana

13%
87%

16
52

✓

IU −18.7

IU −39.5open IU −40.5

–

Final

Ohio@

Nebraska

22%
78%

21
49

✓

NEB −13.0

NEB −23.5

–

Final

Liberty@

James Madison

28%
72%

13
20

✓

JMU −9.5

JMU −6.0

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

Pittsburgh

20%
80%

14
59

✓

PITT −13.8

PITT −16.5

–

Final

Ball State@

#1Ohio State

0.4%
>99%

3
56

✓

OSU −44.3

OSU −50.5open OSU −49.5

–

Final

Kent State@

#17South Carolina

4.8%
95%

0
57

✓

SC −27.4

SC −35.5open SC −33.5

–

Afternoon 9 games

Final

Baylorvs

Auburn

44%
56%

16
17

✓

AUB −2.3

AUB −6.5

–

Final

Texas State@

#5Texas

8.4%
92%

7
59

✓

TEX −22.8

TEX −29.5open TEX −30.5

–

Final

Boston College@

Cincinnati

38%
62%

15
34

✓

CIN −5.0

CIN −7.0open CIN −9.5

–

Final

Tulane@

Duke

42%
58%

3
17

✓

DUKE −3.5

DUKE −9.5open DUKE −8.5

–

Final

Boise State@

#2Oregon

7.5%
92%

27
34

✓

ORE −23.8

ORE −24.5

–

Final

Marshall@

Penn State

23%
77%

0
45

✓

PSU −12.4

PSU −23.5

–

Final

Oklahoma State@

Tulsa

42%
58%

10
24

✓

TLSA −3.5

OKST −13.5open OKST −11.5

–

Final

Northern Illinois@

Iowa

7.7%
92%

0
40

✓

IOWA −23.6

IOWA −31.5open IOWA −29.5

–

Final

Wyoming@

Colorado State

36%
64%

13
35

✓

CSU −6.1

CSU −2.5open CSU −4.0

–

Prime time 8 games

Final

Missouri State@

#6Texas A&M

2.6%
97%

0
50

✓

TA&M −32.0

TA&M −38.5

–

Final

Arkansas State@

Memphis

29%
71%

24
42

✓

MEM −9.2

MEM −10.5

–

Final

FIU@

USF

13%
87%

9
19

✓

USF −18.3

USF −14.5open USF −12.5

–

Final

Sam Houston@

Troy

28%
72%

21
24

✓

TROY −9.6

TROY −15.5open TROY −17.5

–

Final

#20Clemson@

#19LSU

42%
58%

10
51

✓

LSU −3.1

LSU −10.0

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@

Mississippi State

11%
89%

13
62

✓

MSST −19.9

MSST −28.5

–

Final

Western Michigan@

#11Michigan

14%
86%

12
13

✓

MICH −18.0

MICH −27.5open MICH −26.5

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@

#15Florida

8.9%
91%

21
66

✓

FLA −22.2

FLA −26.5open FLA −25.5

–

Late night 4 games

Final

UNLV@

Hawaii

43%
57%

21
6

✗

HAW −2.9

UNLV −2.5open UNLV −1.5

–

Final

Central Michigan@

New Mexico

33%
67%

7
38

✓

UNM −7.3

UNM −11.5open UNM −12.5

–

Final

UCLA@

California

45%
55%

45
24

✗

CAL −2.0

UCLA −2.5open CAL −1.5

–

Final

Western Kentucky@

Nevada

66%
34%

14
49

✗

WKU −6.7

WKU −1.5open WKU −4.5

–

Sun, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Washington State@

#21Washington

26%
74%

10
24

✓

WASH −10.4

WASH −23.5open WASH −21.5

–

Prime time 2 games

Final

Louisvillevs

#10Ole Miss

28%
72%

38
41

✓

MISS −9.8

MISS −6.5

–

Final

Wisconsinvs

#4Notre Dame

12%
88%

13
41

✓

ND −19.4

ND −21.0

–

Mon, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

#22SMU@

Florida State

51%
49%

27
24

✓

SMU −0.6

SMU −3.0

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at UCF	UCF −33.1	98%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Merrimack at Delaware	Delaware −21.5	90%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	West Georgia at Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State −11.9	76%
Thu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	UAlbany at Buffalo	Buffalo −18.1	86%
Thu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM ET	Arkansas-Pine Bluff at #24 Missouri	Missouri −45.6	>99%
Thu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at Minnesota	Minnesota −37.5	99%
Thu, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET	Idaho at #18 Utah	Utah −31.2	97%
Fri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Indiana State at Purdue	Purdue −35.0	98%
Fri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	North Carolina A&T at Georgia State	Georgia State −27.3	95%
Fri, Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ET	Long Island University at Kansas	Kansas −33.0	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	New Hampshire at Syracuse	Syracuse −33.6	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Lafayette at UConn	UConn −29.6	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Bryant at Army	Army −31.2	97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET	Tarleton State at Bowling Green	Bowling Green −14.1	80%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET	Youngstown State at Kentucky	Kentucky −34.4	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State	Iowa State −34.9	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET	Duquesne at Air Force	Air Force −36.0	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 2:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Temple	Temple −26.5	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:00 PM ET	Tennessee State at #3 Georgia	Georgia −46.9	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Furman at #16 Tennessee	Tennessee −42.7	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	The Citadel at Charlotte	Charlotte −20.6	90%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Towson at Navy	Navy −33.0	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA	UTSA −27.0	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Fordham at North Dakota State	North Dakota State −20.2	89%
Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET	Maine at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −27.4	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 4:15 PM ET	North Alabama at Arkansas	Arkansas −38.3	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 5:00 PM ET	Alcorn State at Southern Miss	Southern Miss −34.7	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM ET	Norfolk State at Old Dominion	Old Dominion −35.1	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Austin Peay at #25 Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt −33.2	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Abilene Christian at #13 Texas Tech	Texas Tech −44.6	>99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Kansas State	Kansas State −38.2	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Idaho State at Utah State	Utah State −26.1	94%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Houston Christian at Rice	Rice −26.8	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Murray State at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee −22.9	92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State −27.8	95%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern −22.7	92%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET	SE Louisiana at South Alabama	South Alabama −28.8	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET	VMI at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech −37.5	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM ET	Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech −36.0	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET	Utah Tech at #23 BYU	BYU −35.0	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET	Hampton at Maryland	Maryland −25.7	94%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET	South Dakota State at Northwestern	Northwestern −30.1	97%
Sat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM ET	Lamar at Louisiana	Louisiana −29.9	96%
Sat, Sep 5 · 9:00 PM ET	Mercyhurst at New Mexico State	New Mexico State −8.0	69%
Sat, Sep 5 · 9:30 PM ET	Northern Arizona at Arizona	Arizona −37.4	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 9:30 PM ET	Portland State at San Diego State	San Diego State −33.4	98%
Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET	Morgan State at Arizona State	Arizona State −37.7	99%
Sat, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET	Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State	Sacramento State −20.5	89%