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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 93

Wilder than 93% of weeks in the archive.

23 upsets against 18.3 expected

  • Biggest shockBuffalo over Toledo5.0% chance · won 23-8
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Texas19% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upWyoming over San Jose State22% chance · won 16-13

Fallout

1.4 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

UCLA +22Oklahoma +13Ole Miss +13Oregon -24LSU -20Florida -18

Upsets

Most riding on it

Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

#19UCLA#7Oregon

Final UCLA 17, ORE 15

ModelORE −11.7MarketORE −10.5

Oregon playoff odds
L 29%now 56%W 65%

Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

Stanford#4Notre Dame

Final STAN 7, ND 58

ModelND −44.3MarketND −39.5

Notre Dame playoff odds
L 56%now 91%W 92%

Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM ET

Kansas#10Utah

Final KU 24, UTAH 41

ModelUTAH −23.2MarketUTAH −15.5

Utah playoff odds
L 24%now 55%W 58%

Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET

#9Indiana#21Nebraska

Final IU 20, NEB 17

ModelIU −3.5MarketIU −8.5

Indiana playoff odds
L 30%now 50%W 65%

Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET

Maryland#3Ohio State

Final MD 16, OSU 45

ModelOSU −35.9MarketOSU −31.5

Ohio State playoff odds
L 54%now 85%W 85%

Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET

Boise StateFresno State

Final BOIS 38, FRES 31

ModelBOIS −3.3MarketBOIS −8.5

Boise State playoff odds
L 16%now 34%W 47%

Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET

#8LSUKentucky

Final LSU 34, UK 35

ModelLSU −9.5MarketLSU −9.5

LSU playoff odds
L 24%now 47%W 56%

Sat, Oct 10 · 12:45 PM ET

South Carolina#13Florida

Final SC 38, FLA 19

ModelFLA −9.8MarketFLA −10.5

Florida playoff odds
L 8.0%now 24%W 31%

Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET

#12TennesseeArkansas

Final TENN 24, ARK 17

ModelTENN −15.7MarketTENN −13.5

Tennessee playoff odds
L 7.2%now 25%W 29%

Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET

#14USCPenn State

Final USC 31, PSU 23

ModelUSC −2.0MarketPSU −1.5

USC playoff odds
L 7.8%now 19%W 29%

The 10 games that week that moved a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation. The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.

Sat, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 13 games

Final
#9Indiana@#21Nebraska
58%
42%
20
17
✓
IU −3.5
IU −8.5open IU −9.5
6.0 → NEB
IU playoff odds
L 30%now 50%W 65%
Final
#11Texas A&M@#20Missouri
53%
47%
6
27
✗
TA&M −1.3
MIZ −4.5open MIZ −1.5
2.8 → TA&M
MIZ playoff odds
L 5.5%now 13%W 23%
Final
Arizona@West Virginia
73%
27%
52
31
✓
ARIZ −10.0
ARIZ −3.5open ARIZ −3.0
7.0 → ARIZ
ARIZ playoff odds
L 0.5%now 3.2%W 4.2%
Final
North Carolina@PittsburghUpset
25%
75%
21
17
✗
PITT −11.2
PITT −3.5
7.7 → PITT
PITT playoff odds
L 1.7%now 7.2%W 9.2%
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
48%
52%
38
14
✗
NCSU −0.6
WAKE −3.5open WAKE −4.0
4.6 → NCSU
WAKE playoff odds
L 0.8%now 3.6%W 6.6%
Final
UCF@Oklahoma State
54%
46%
28
42
✗
UCF −1.6
OKST −10.5open OKST −9.5
11.1 → UCF
Little playoff impact
Final
Tulane@Army
30%
70%
17
20
✓
ARMY −8.7
ARMY −5.5open ARMY −3.0
5.7 → ARMY
ARMY playoff odds
L 0.1%now 1.5%W 2.1%
Final
Sacramento State@Bowling Green
51%
49%
10
38
✗
SAC −0.2
BGSU −9.5open BGSU −7.5
7.7 → SAC
Little playoff impact
Final
Ball State@#23Northwestern
0.7%
99%
14
45
✓
NU −40.9
NU −34.5open NU −36.5
4.4 → NU
NU playoff odds
L <0.1%now 4.8%W 4.9%
Final
South Carolina@#13FloridaUpset
28%
72%
38
19
✗
FLA −9.8
FLA −10.5open FLA −14.5
4.6 → SC
FLA playoff odds
L 8.0%now 24%W 31%
Final
Rice@East Carolina
25%
75%
12
28
✓
ECU −11.2
ECU −10.0
1.2 → ECU
Little playoff impact
Final
Old Dominion@Appalachian StateUpset
24%
76%
10
3
✗
APP −11.4
APP −8.5open APP −9.5
1.9 → APP
Little playoff impact
Final
Miami (OH)@UMass
51%
49%
20
19
✓
M-OH −0.2
M-OH −6.0open M-OH −2.5
2.3 → MASS
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Stanford@#4Notre Dame
0.4%
>99%
7
58
✓
ND −44.3
ND −39.5open ND −38.5
5.8 → ND
ND playoff odds
L 56%now 91%W 92%
Final
#5Texasvs#18OklahomaUpset
81%
19%
24
27
✗
TEX −14.7
TEX −7.5open TEX −6.0
8.7 → TEX
OU playoff odds
L 7.6%now 12%W 28%
Final
#19UCLA@#7OregonUpset
24%
76%
17
15
✗
ORE −11.7
ORE −10.5open ORE −12.5
0.8 → UCLA
ORE playoff odds
L 29%now 56%W 65%
Final
#16Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
65%
35%
52
17
✓
MISS −6.2
MISS −9.5open MISS −10.0
3.8 → VAN
MISS playoff odds
L 8.0%now 21%W 28%
Final
Houston@Kansas State
47%
53%
35
16
✗
KSU −1.1
KSU −2.5
1.4 → HOU
HOU playoff odds
L 1.5%now 5.8%W 11%
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
64%
36%
25
28
✗
DUKE −5.8
DUKE −4.5open DUKE −7.0
1.3 → GT
DUKE playoff odds
L 1.0%now 4.1%W 5.9%
Final
Virginia Tech@California
60%
40%
20
25
✗
VT −4.4
VT −10.0open VT −9.5
5.1 → CAL
Little playoff impact
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
49%
51%
38
37
✗
MSU −0.4
ILL −2.5
2.9 → MSU
Little playoff impact
Final
Buffalo@ToledoUpset
5.0%
95%
23
8
✗
TOL −27.2
TOL −18.5open TOL −20.5
6.7 → TOL
Little playoff impact
Final
Charlotte@North Texas
4.2%
96%
10
50
✓
UNT −28.5
UNT −27.5open UNT −28.5
0.0 → CLT
Little playoff impact
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
13%
87%
7
38
✓
WMU −18.4
WMU −14.0open WMU −13.5
4.9 → WMU
Little playoff impact
Final
Tulsa@Navy
36%
64%
26
34
✓
NAVY −6.0
NAVY −3.0open NAVY −2.5
3.5 → NAVY
Little playoff impact
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
28%
72%
14
31
✓
OHIO −9.7
OHIO −2.5open OHIO −3.0
6.7 → OHIO
Little playoff impact
Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
58%
42%
25
23
✓
EMU −3.4
EMU −5.5open EMU −7.0
3.6 → AKR
Little playoff impact
Final
UConn@Temple
39%
61%
34
20
✗
TEM −4.6
TEM −3.5
1.1 → TEM
Little playoff impact
Final
Maryland@#3Ohio State
1.5%
98%
16
45
✓
OSU −35.9
OSU −31.5open OSU −34.5
1.4 → OSU
OSU playoff odds
L 54%now 85%W 85%
Final
#12Tennessee@Arkansas
83%
17%
24
17
✓
TENN −15.7
TENN −13.5
2.2 → TENN
TENN playoff odds
L 7.2%now 25%W 29%
Final
San Diego State@Oregon State
31%
69%
14
66
✓
ORST −8.1
ORST −16.5open ORST −14.5
6.4 → SDSU
ORST playoff odds
L 0.3%now 1.9%W 2.6%

Prime time 13 games

Final
#8LSU@KentuckyUpset
72%
28%
34
35
✗
LSU −9.5
LSU −9.5open LSU −10.5
1.0 → UK
LSU playoff odds
L 24%now 47%W 56%
Final
UAB@Memphis
17%
83%
13
38
✓
MEM −15.7
MEM −14.5open MEM −14.0
1.7 → MEM
MEM playoff odds
L 0.5%now 3.7%W 4.4%
Final
North Dakota State@UNLV
38%
62%
7
13
✓
UNLV −5.0
NDSU −2.5open NDSU −3.0
8.1 → UNLV
Little playoff impact
Final
Coastal Carolina@Marshall
31%
68%
27
21
✗
MRSH −7.9
MRSH −4.5open MRSH −3.0
4.9 → MRSH
Little playoff impact
Final
Nevada@UTEP
64%
36%
30
13
✓
NEV −5.7
NEV −10.0open NEV −9.5
3.8 → UTEP
Little playoff impact
Final
#1Georgia@#2Alabama
42%
58%
20
17
✗
ALA −3.2
ALA −2.5open UGA −3.0
6.2 → ALA
UGA playoff odds
L 88%now 92%W 98%
Final
#14USC@Penn State
55%
45%
31
23
✓
USC −2.0
PSU −1.5
3.5 → USC
USC playoff odds
L 7.8%now 19%W 29%
Final
James Madison@Georgia Southern
78%
22%
27
24
✓
JMU −12.8
JMU −7.5
5.3 → JMU
JMU playoff odds
L 5.8%now 20%W 24%
Final
Syracuse@Virginia
28%
72%
25
28
✓
UVA −9.4
UVA −14.0open UVA −9.5
0.1 → SYR
Little playoff impact
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
46%
54%
31
32
✓
LT −1.8
LT −3.0
1.2 → UL
Little playoff impact
Final
Air Force@Northern Illinois
77%
23%
28
7
✓
AF −12.3
AF −7.0open AF −7.5
4.8 → AF
Little playoff impact
Final
Kansas@#10Utah
7.9%
92%
24
41
✓
UTAH −23.2
UTAH −15.5
7.7 → UTAH
UTAH playoff odds
L 24%now 55%W 58%
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
61%
39%
13
41
✗
MINN −4.7
MINN −2.5
2.2 → MINN
MINN playoff odds
L 0.4%now 2.2%W 3.3%

Late night 2 games

Final
Boise State@Fresno State
58%
42%
38
31
✓
BOIS −3.3
BOIS −8.5open BOIS −6.5
3.2 → FRES
BOIS playoff odds
L 16%now 34%W 47%
Final
Hawaii@Arizona State
18%
82%
12
30
✓
ASU −15.4
ASU −21.0open ASU −20.5
5.1 → HAW
Little playoff impact

Played before this page was saved

DayFinalModel (entering the week)Called it Model missMarket miss
Tue, Oct 6Southern Miss 34, Troy 55 Troy −5.8 ✓15.211.5
Wed, Oct 7Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26 Jacksonville State −0.9 ✓0.12.0
Wed, Oct 7New Mexico State 3, FIU 22 FIU −7.9 ✓11.112.0
Thu, Oct 8Sam Houston 3, Liberty 35 Liberty −13.8 ✓18.218.5
Thu, Oct 8Missouri State 13, Western Kentucky 34 Western Kentucky −2.7 ✓18.322.5
Thu, Oct 8USF 24, UTSA 31 UTSA −2.9 ✓4.11.5
Thu, Oct 8South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49 Arkansas State −0.3 ✗7.310.0
Fri, Oct 9Florida State 20, Louisville 44 Louisville −1.4 ✓22.620.0
Fri, Oct 9Iowa 41, Washington 24 Washington −0.2 ✗17.220.0
Fri, Oct 9Washington State 16, Utah State 17 Washington State −1.3 ✗2.33.0
Fri, Oct 9Wyoming 16, San Jose State 13 San Jose State −12.8 ✗15.87.5
Fri, Oct 9Iowa State 10, BYU 24 BYU −16.4 ✓2.42.5