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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2026

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: This week · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 16.9 expected

  • Biggest shockWisconsin over Penn State17% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upWake Forest over Louisville21% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Kansas State26% chance · won 31-26

Fallout

1.9 playoff spots’ worth of probability changed hands.

Oregon +29Florida +26LSU +24Ole Miss -25Michigan -23Penn State -18

Upsets

Thu, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Prime time 1 game

Final
Liberty@Coastal Carolina
53%
47%
34
17
✓
LIB −1.3
LIB −2.5open CCU −1.5
–
Little playoff impact

Fri, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Army@Temple
70%
30%
21
17
✓
ARMY −8.9
ARMY −4.0open ARMY −3.0
–
Little playoff impact

Prime time 2 games

Final
Navy@UAB
60%
40%
20
24
✗
NAVY −4.2
NAVY −6.5open NAVY −11.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Northwestern@#11Indiana
19%
80%
23
29
✓
IU −14.2
IU −20.5open IU −23.5
–
Little playoff impact

Late night 1 game

Final
Clemson@California
66%
34%
24
10
✓
CLEM −6.8
CLEM −2.5open CLEM −1.5
–
Little playoff impact

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge Playoff stake

Early 14 games

Final
Illinois@#3Ohio State
4.4%
96%
19
42
✓
OSU −28.2
OSU −25.5open OSU −27.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#4Texas@#14Tennessee
74%
26%
20
17
✓
TEX −10.7
TEX −5.5open TEX −6.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Sam Houston@#19Texas Tech
3.3%
97%
14
49
✓
TTU −30.3
TTU −34.5open TTU −37.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Wake Forest@LouisvilleUpset
21%
79%
30
27
✗
LOU −13.4
LOU −11.5open LOU −13.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Colorado@Baylor
19%
81%
13
23
✓
BAY −14.5
BAY −8.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Colorado State@UTSA
19%
81%
45
59
✓
UTSA −14.5
UTSA −14.5open UTSA −11.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Virginia Tech@Boston College
82%
18%
21
14
✓
VT −14.8
VT −14.5open VT −14.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
San Diego State@Toledo
42%
58%
16
41
✓
TOL −3.2
TOL −2.5open SDSU −1.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
UNLV@Akron
64%
36%
38
10
✓
UNLV −5.7
UNLV −13.5open UNLV −14.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Ball State@Kent State
31%
69%
13
26
✓
KENT −8.3
KENT −2.5open KENT −4.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
South Alabama@Kentucky
16%
84%
21
45
✓
UK −16.6
UK −20.5open UK −19.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#20UCLA@Maryland
53%
47%
54
3
✓
UCLA −1.3
UCLA −2.5open UCLA −1.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#2Notre Dame@Purdue
97%
2.6%
49
10
✓
ND −32.0
ND −27.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Northern Illinois@Georgia State
21%
79%
14
35
✓
GAST −13.2
GAST −8.5
–
Little playoff impact

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
74%
26%
10
27
✗
HAW −10.4
HAW −2.5open HAW −5.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#18Oklahoma@#1Georgia
19%
81%
13
41
✓
UGA −14.5
UGA −11.5open UGA −10.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#15Ole Miss@#9Florida
50%
50%
28
52
✗
MISS −0.1
FLA −4.0open FLA −1.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#10Utah@Iowa State
80%
20%
31
17
✓
UTAH −13.6
UTAH −7.5open UTAH −11.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#25Iowa@#17Michigan
27%
73%
20
19
✗
MICH −10.1
MICH −4.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Boise State@Western Michigan
47%
53%
32
7
✗
WMU −1.3
BOIS −8.5open BOIS −7.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
TCU@UCF
54%
46%
13
21
✗
TCU −1.7
TCU −3.5open TCU −3.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
83%
17%
42
18
✓
UNM −15.6
UNM −11.5open UNM −12.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
UConn@Miami (OH)
54%
46%
21
24
✗
CONN −1.9
M-OH −2.5open M-OH −3.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Houston@Georgia Southern
86%
14%
42
28
✓
HOU −17.7
HOU −17.5open HOU −19.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Vanderbilt@#24Auburn
35%
65%
15
21
✓
AUB −6.2
AUB −10.0open AUB −8.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Wisconsin@#22Penn StateUpset
17%
83%
24
20
✗
PSU −15.8
PSU −9.5open PSU −11.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#23Nebraska@Michigan State
58%
42%
31
13
✓
NEB −3.4
NEB −6.0open NEB −5.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
USF@Bowling Green
97%
2.7%
14
6
✓
USF −31.7
USF −17.5open USF −15.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Delaware@Virginia
17%
83%
3
42
✓
UVA −16.0
UVA −19.5open UVA −20.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
James Madison@Old Dominion
72%
28%
46
20
✓
JMU −9.9
JMU −7.0open JMU −4.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Central Michigan@#7Miami (FL)
0.3%
>99%
3
52
✓
MIA −44.7
MIA −41.5open MIA −42.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Louisiana@Charlotte
77%
23%
34
7
✓
UL −12.1
UL −9.5open UL −14.5
–
Little playoff impact

Prime time 17 games

Final
South Carolina@#5Alabama
15%
85%
18
49
✓
ALA −16.9
ALA −12.5open ALA −11.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Kansas State@Cincinnati
74%
26%
26
31
✗
KSU −10.7
KSU −6.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Oklahoma State@West Virginia
29%
71%
41
24
✗
WVU −9.1
WVU −1.5open OKST −2.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Southern Miss@Tulane
18%
82%
21
24
✓
TULN −15.0
TULN −17.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Middle Tennessee@Jacksonville State
33%
67%
13
23
✓
JXST −7.1
JXST −7.0open JXST −9.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Kennesaw State@Arkansas State
33%
67%
14
17
✓
ARST −7.3
ARST −6.5open ARST −5.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#12Texas A&M@#6LSU
47%
53%
6
35
✓
LSU −1.2
LSU −8.5open LSU −3.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
#8Oregon@#13USC
43%
57%
41
27
✗
USC −2.9
ORE −3.5open ORE −5.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Arizona@Washington State
63%
37%
34
24
✓
ARIZ −5.4
ARIZ −11.5open ARIZ −13.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Appalachian State@NC State
19%
81%
31
41
✓
NCSU −14.6
NCSU −12.5open NCSU −14.0
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Troy@Utah State
48%
52%
10
21
✓
USU −0.8
USU −3.0open USU −2.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Missouri@#21Mississippi State
32%
68%
24
31
✓
MSST −7.7
MSST −3.5open MSST −1.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
37%
63%
6
34
✓
ARK −5.3
ARK −7.0open ARK −8.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Florida Atlantic@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
45
17
✓
FAU −10.8
FAU −11.5open FAU −13.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Missouri State@SMU
4.5%
96%
24
34
✓
SMU −27.9
SMU −30.5open SMU −34.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
Oregon State@UTEP
76%
24%
33
7
✓
ORST −11.4
ORST −11.5open ORST −12.5
–
Little playoff impact
Final
UMass@Sacramento State
39%
61%
35
6
✗
SAC −4.5
MASS −6.0
–
Little playoff impact

Late night 4 games

Final
Rice@Fresno State
15%
85%
24
38
✓
FRES −16.9
FRES −12.5open FRES −13.5
3.4 → FRES
FRES playoff odds
L 0.5%now 3.3%W 3.8%
Final
Georgia Tech@Stanford
63%
37%
27
34
✗
GT −5.5
GT −3.0open GT −4.5
1.0 → GT
Little playoff impact
Final
Air Force@Nevada
62%
38%
36
33
✓
AF −5.2
AF −5.5open AF −4.5
0.7 → AF
Little playoff impact
Final
Minnesota@Washington
32%
68%
27
24
✗
WASH −7.9
WASH −11.5open WASH −9.5
1.6 → MINN
WASH playoff odds
L 1.1%now 4.2%W 5.8%

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ET Howard at Rutgers Rutgers −31.4 97%
Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET Bucknell at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −46.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 1:00 PM ET Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −19.9 89%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Florida State Florida State −45.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET William & Mary at Duke Duke −44.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET Stonehill at Ohio Ohio −27.6 95%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Marshall Marshall −29.9 96%
Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET Robert Morris at Buffalo Buffalo −15.0 82%
Sat, Sep 26 · 4:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at East Carolina East Carolina −31.3 97%
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET Incarnate Word at Texas State Texas State −36.6 99%
Sat, Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET Long Island University at FIU FIU −27.7 95%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −23.7 92%
Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET Houston Christian at North Texas North Texas −35.2 98%