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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 33 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 60

Wilder than 60% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 8.6 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over USC18% chance · won 14-13
  • Runner-upCincinnati over Rutgers21% chance · won 17-17
  • Runner-upLouisville over Wyoming22% chance · won 28-21

Upsets

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@#2Notre Dame
15%
85%
13
36
✓
ND −15.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 26 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
27%
73%
36
52
✓
AF −8.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
38%
62%
3
19
✓
ARIZ −4.0
–
–
Final
BYU@New Mexico
79%
21%
24
3
✓
BYU −12.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
41%
59%
7
30
✓
EMU −2.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Fresno State
33%
67%
22
52
✓
FRES −6.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Hawaii
24%
76%
26
31
✓
HAW −10.4
–
–
Final
#13Houston@UNLV
81%
19%
69
0
✓
HOU −14.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@LouisianaUpset
23%
77%
40
14
✗
UL −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@#15WyomingUpset
22%
78%
28
21
✗
WYO −11.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
43%
57%
20
13
✗
MEM −2.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Mississippi State
48%
52%
7
42
✓
MSST −0.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
34%
66%
6
10
✓
NCSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Northern Illinois
24%
76%
17
26
✓
NIU −10.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#10Oklahoma
4.8%
95%
3
73
✓
OU −25.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@#23Pittsburgh
1.9%
98%
3
38
✓
PITT −32.1
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
63%
37%
35
6
✓
RICE −5.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Rutgers
21%
79%
17
17
✗
RUTG −12.1
–
–
Final
Duke@South Carolina
33%
67%
21
27
✓
SC −6.3
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Southern MissUpset
66%
34%
26
30
✗
FSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Tennessee
25%
75%
14
17
✓
TENN −9.7
–
–
Final
#21LSU@#25Texas A&M
44%
56%
16
28
✓
TA&M −2.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
35%
65%
18
27
✓
TOL −5.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
32%
68%
23
14
✗
UTEP −6.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Virginia Tech
34%
66%
3
29
✓
VT −6.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#5West Virginia
17%
83%
10
35
✓
WVU −14.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Western Michigan
35%
65%
24
31
✓
WMU −5.6
–
–

Mon, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Texas@#24Colorado
29%
71%
6
27
✓
COLO −7.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@#4USCUpset
19%
82%
14
13
✗
USC −13.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Furman at #12 Clemson Clemson −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Montana State at Kansas Kansas −30.9 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Long Beach State Long Beach State −2.2 57%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Idaho at #22 Washington State Washington State −37.2 99%