The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 4

Wilder than 4% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia Tech over West Virginia10% chance · won 12-10
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Texas A&M39% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upWashington State over Oregon44% chance · won 51-38

Upsets

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
#16Air Force@Navy
91%
9.1%
35
7
✓
AF −22.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Akron
46%
54%
24
31
✓
AKR −1.9
–
–
Final
#18Alabama@Ole Miss
59%
41%
62
27
✓
ALA −3.7
–
–
Final
#13Arkansas@TCU
86%
14%
41
19
✓
ARK −17.8
–
–
Final
#12Auburn@Kentucky
70%
30%
24
12
✓
AUB −8.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
7.7%
92%
9
37
✓
BALL −23.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
45%
55%
31
28
✗
OHIO −2.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#25BYU
20%
80%
20
36
✓
BYU −13.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
35%
65%
21
26
✓
CAL −6.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
15%
86%
0
38
✓
CMU −17.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@#10Clemson
17%
84%
20
34
✓
CLEM −16.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@#5Colorado
4.8%
95%
3
49
✓
COLO −27.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
59%
41%
34
20
✓
CSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Army@Duke
48%
52%
29
35
✓
DUKE −1.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
33%
67%
14
31
✓
EMU −7.2
–
–
Final
#23Florida@LSU
47%
53%
16
13
✗
LSU −1.5
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@#20Syracuse
52%
48%
41
10
✓
FSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Fresno State
23%
77%
18
35
✓
FRES −12.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
24
28
✗
MD −2.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#22Hawaii
13%
87%
24
31
✓
HAW −18.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@#3Houston
9.3%
91%
10
66
✓
HOU −22.0
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Illinois
36%
64%
14
34
✓
ILL −6.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
7.3%
93%
11
43
✓
IU −24.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
70%
30%
24
20
✓
ISU −8.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Long Beach State
42%
58%
48
55
✓
Long Beach State −3.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisiana
47%
53%
13
21
✓
UL −1.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Memphis
49%
51%
10
13
✓
MEM −0.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#1Miami (FL)
0.2%
>99%
0
56
✓
MIA −46.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#11Michigan
5.0%
95%
0
24
✓
MICH −27.4
–
–
Final
#14Michigan State@Iowa
70%
30%
17
14
✓
MSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Minnesota
32%
68%
15
35
✓
MINN −7.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#4Nebraska
0.4%
>99%
7
58
✓
NEB −44.3
–
–
Final
Pacific@UNLV
27%
73%
7
30
✓
UNLV −10.3
–
–
Final
#2Notre Dame@Stanford
87%
13%
27
17
✓
ND −18.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#8Oklahoma
12%
88%
15
37
✓
OU −19.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Rutgers
54%
46%
17
0
✓
PSU −1.4
–
–
Final
#19Pittsburgh@Temple
93%
7.2%
27
3
✓
PITT −24.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
36%
64%
14
47
✓
SC −6.2
–
–
Final
Washington@#7USC
21%
78%
16
24
✓
USC −13.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
25%
75%
21
30
✓
USM −11.5
–
–
Final
Georgia@#24Tennessee
40%
60%
14
17
✓
TENN −4.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
23%
77%
30
31
✓
TEX −12.2
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@Texas TechUpset
61%
39%
24
27
✗
TA&M −4.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UCLA
24%
76%
14
33
✓
UCLA −12.1
–
–
Final
Utah@UTEP
46%
54%
50
45
✗
UTEP −1.9
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Utah State
50%
50%
23
34
✓
USU −0.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#6West VirginiaUpset
10%
90%
12
10
✗
WVU −21.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@North Carolina
61%
39%
17
16
✓
WAKE −4.6
–
–
Final
#17Washington State@#21Oregon
44%
56%
51
38
✗
ORE −2.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Mississippi State Mississippi State −24.6 93%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Middle Tennessee at NC State NC State −24.9 93%
Sat, Oct 7 · TBD Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −21.3 90%