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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 97

Wilder than 97% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockYoungstown State over Central Michigan2.1% chance · won 30-3
  • Runner-upTexas over Arkansas11% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upMurray State over Akron13% chance · won 31-31

Upsets

Sat, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
#25Tennessee@#12Alabama
28%
72%
30
47
✓
ALA −8.9
–
–
Final
#21Arizona@#13Washington State
31%
68%
23
21
✗
WSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
31%
70%
13
14
✓
BALL −7.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@#17BYU
6.0%
94%
24
49
✓
BYU −24.6
–
–
Final
NC State@#15Clemson
28%
72%
10
30
✓
CLEM −9.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@#4Colorado
0.3%
>99%
17
49
✓
COLO −44.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Colorado StateUpset
77%
23%
16
31
✗
HAW −12.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Maryland
29%
71%
46
25
✗
MD −8.3
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@East Carolina
46%
54%
10
14
✓
ECU −0.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Eastern Michigan
17%
83%
13
21
✓
EMU −14.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#19Florida
2.5%
98%
21
27
✓
FLA −31.2
–
–
Final
#14Auburn@#6Florida State
26%
74%
14
22
✓
FSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Fresno State
2.9%
97%
19
33
✓
FRES −30.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
35
16
✓
UGA −10.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
12%
88%
14
17
✓
GT −18.5
–
–
Final
SMU@#2Houston
<0.1%
>99%
21
95
✓
HOU −55.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#18Michigan StateUpset
29%
71%
14
10
✗
MSU −8.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
14%
86%
18
28
✓
IU −16.6
–
–
Final
LSU@Kentucky
58%
42%
21
27
✗
LSU −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
32%
68%
24
21
✗
USM −7.2
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Iowa
76%
24%
26
12
✓
MICH −11.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
64%
36%
32
28
✓
MISS −6.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
33%
67%
10
35
✓
MSST −6.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
66%
34%
21
9
✓
MIZ −7.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Boston CollegeUpset
16%
84%
27
24
✗
BC −15.5
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Oklahoma State
89%
11%
48
23
✓
NEB −20.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Northern Illinois
28%
72%
24
42
✓
NIU −8.7
–
–
Final
#7USC@#3Notre Dame
31%
69%
24
28
✓
ND −7.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
47%
53%
14
37
✓
OHIO −0.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Ohio State
14%
86%
3
21
✓
OSU −16.7
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Iowa State
91%
9.2%
43
40
✓
OU −21.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona State
66%
34%
27
7
✓
ORE −7.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon State
65%
35%
17
18
✗
UCLA −6.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Diego State
4.5%
96%
7
35
✓
SDSU −26.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Long Beach State
84%
16%
21
10
✓
SJSU −16.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Rutgers
57%
43%
49
28
✓
SYR −3.3
–
–
Final
Texas@#8ArkansasUpset
10%
90%
24
20
✗
ARK −19.6
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@Baylor
67%
33%
14
11
✓
TA&M −7.6
–
–
Final
#20Air Force@TCUUpset
81%
19%
9
27
✗
AF −14.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas Tech
19%
81%
25
41
✓
TTU −13.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
18%
82%
14
17
✓
TOL −14.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulsa
46%
54%
24
31
✓
TLSA −1.0
–
–
Final
Utah@StanfordUpset
23%
77%
27
24
✗
STAN −11.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
54%
46%
28
13
✓
USU −2.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
16%
84%
28
47
✓
UVA −15.2
–
–
Final
#24Washington@California
71%
29%
29
16
✓
WASH −9.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#11West Virginia
2.6%
97%
3
69
✓
WVU −31.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Wisconsin
33%
67%
31
35
✓
WIS −6.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Murray State at Akron Akron −17.5 87%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −30.9 97%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Louisiana Tech at Arkansas State Arkansas State −10.5 75%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Western Carolina at South Carolina South Carolina −39.8 99%
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Youngstown State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −32.4 98%