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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 29

Wilder than 29% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockLong Beach State over Boise State2.7% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upNorthern Iowa over Kansas State25% chance · won 10-8
  • Runner-upAkron over Central Michigan30% chance · won 27-26

Upsets

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
#15Air Force@Northwestern
80%
20%
48
31
✓
AF −13.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
30%
70%
27
26
✗
CMU −7.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@#24Alabama
20%
80%
7
35
✓
ALA −12.3
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@#21Arizona
64%
36%
3
6
✗
OU −6.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Arizona State
26%
74%
21
28
✓
ASU −9.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#23Arkansas
32%
68%
7
26
✓
ARK −6.7
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#8Auburn
17%
83%
3
24
✓
AUB −14.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
72%
28%
28
3
✓
BALL −9.5
–
–
Final
#25BYU@Navy
68%
32%
31
10
✓
BYU −7.8
–
–
Final
#9Clemson@Virginia Tech
70%
30%
27
7
✓
CLEM −8.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#11Colorado
23%
77%
7
38
✓
COLO −10.9
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Colorado State
14%
86%
14
42
✓
CSU −16.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
67%
33%
21
14
✓
ECU −7.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
62%
38%
30
25
✓
EMU −5.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Florida
29%
71%
7
34
✓
FLA −8.1
–
–
Final
#12Florida State@LSU
54%
46%
31
21
✓
FSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Pacific
98%
1.5%
27
14
✓
FRES −34.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Georgia
23%
77%
3
15
✓
UGA −10.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@#18Indiana
20%
80%
7
24
✓
IU −12.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kansas
42%
58%
21
28
✓
KU −2.6
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Kentucky
17%
83%
6
13
✓
UK −14.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Maryland
32%
68%
0
23
✓
MD −6.5
–
–
Final
California@#1Miami (FL)
0.5%
>99%
3
31
✓
MIA −40.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Michigan State
4.8%
95%
0
49
✓
MSU −25.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa State
36%
64%
30
20
✗
ISU −5.1
–
–
Final
Utah@#6Nebraska
7.4%
93%
30
42
✓
NEB −22.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
55%
44%
27
17
✓
NCSU −2.6
–
–
Final
#2Notre Dame@#13Michigan
65%
35%
24
19
✓
ND −6.6
–
–
Final
#16Oklahoma State@Ohio StateUpset
61%
39%
13
37
✗
OKST −4.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@Iowa
43%
57%
44
6
✗
IOWA −2.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
17%
83%
3
42
✓
PSU −14.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Rutgers
29%
71%
7
9
✓
RUTG −7.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@#10USC
1.7%
98%
10
66
✓
USC −32.9
–
–
Final
Army@#5Syracuse
7.7%
92%
7
10
✓
SYR −21.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Tennessee
26%
74%
6
28
✓
TENN −9.4
–
–
Final
#22Texas A&M@TCU
63%
37%
44
7
✓
TA&M −5.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
7.0%
93%
20
27
✓
TTU −22.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
85%
15%
29
27
✓
UTEP −16.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulane
34%
66%
10
17
✓
TULN −5.9
–
–
Final
#20UCLA@San Diego State
75%
25%
28
25
✓
UCLA −11.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
53%
47%
17
10
✓
UVA −1.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@#17Washington
12%
88%
9
38
✓
WASH −17.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#19Washington State
25%
75%
3
41
✓
WSU −10.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#7West Virginia
16%
84%
21
45
✓
WVU −15.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Wisconsin
51%
49%
10
23
✗
TOL −0.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
55%
45%
15
20
✗
HAW −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Long Beach State at Boise State Boise State −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Arkansas State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −5.3 65%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Northern Iowa at Kansas State Kansas State −10.0 75%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD UConn at SMU UConn −6.6 65%