The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 14

Wilder than 14% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMaryland over Penn State21% chance · won 13-13
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Washington State21% chance · won 38-26
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Western Michigan22% chance · won 31-30

Upsets

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
#11Alabama@LSU
61%
39%
32
16
✓
ALA −4.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona State
40%
60%
22
30
✓
ASU −3.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@#8Arkansas
15%
85%
10
19
✓
ARK −15.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#14Auburn
9.4%
91%
23
38
✓
AUB −20.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
38%
62%
17
23
✓
BALL −4.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
37%
63%
24
17
✗
ARMY −4.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western MichiganUpset
22%
78%
31
30
✗
WMU −11.8
–
–
Final
#21Air Force@#25BYU
42%
58%
35
44
✓
BYU −2.8
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Cal State Fullerton
21%
79%
13
31
✓
Cal State Fullerton −12.6
–
–
Final
#17Washington State@CaliforniaUpset
79%
21%
26
38
✗
WSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Central Michigan
9.9%
90%
15
24
✓
CMU −20.2
–
–
Final
#5Colorado@Oklahoma State
92%
8.0%
41
17
✓
COLO −22.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
63%
37%
52
0
✓
CSU −5.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
46%
54%
26
35
✓
DUKE −1.1
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
10%
90%
24
31
✓
ECU −19.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@New Mexico State
97%
2.8%
45
5
✓
FRES −30.9
–
–
Final
Florida@#23Georgia
40%
60%
10
17
✓
UGA −3.5
–
–
Final
Pacific@#20Hawaii
0.3%
>99%
26
34
✓
HAW −43.8
–
–
Final
Texas@#3Houston
6.6%
93%
9
47
✓
HOU −23.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Wisconsin
72%
28%
45
17
✓
IU −10.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Missouri
50%
50%
35
21
✗
ISU −0.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
65%
35%
15
11
✓
UK −6.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Memphis
66%
34%
40
10
✓
LOU −7.3
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
87%
13%
24
3
✓
MIA −18.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
47%
53%
15
13
✗
KENT −0.8
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@#18Illinois
52%
48%
24
10
✓
MICH −1.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#16Michigan State
9.0%
91%
7
21
✓
MSU −21.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Mississippi State
24%
76%
7
27
✓
MSST −10.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@#6Nebraska
0.3%
>99%
14
51
✓
NEB −43.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
35%
65%
27
39
✓
NIU −5.6
–
–
Final
SMU@#2Notre Dame
0.1%
>99%
6
59
✓
ND −51.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@Ohio State
32%
68%
0
28
✓
OSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#15Oklahoma
0.6%
99%
19
42
✓
OU −39.7
–
–
Final
#22Oregon@UCLA
53%
47%
38
20
✓
ORE −1.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#19Penn State
21%
79%
13
13
✗
PSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Purdue
29%
71%
15
46
✓
PUR −8.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
54%
46%
17
27
✗
WYO −2.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
73%
27%
33
7
✓
SJSU −10.1
–
–
Final
South Carolina@North Carolina
83%
17%
27
20
✓
SC −15.7
–
–
Final
#7USC@Arizona
69%
31%
24
3
✓
USC −8.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Navy
84%
16%
38
17
✓
SYR −16.2
–
–
Final
Akron@#24Tennessee
11%
89%
9
52
✓
TENN −18.8
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
22%
78%
7
37
✓
TTU −11.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah
31%
69%
39
41
✓
UTAH −7.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
30%
70%
25
32
✓
UVA −8.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Wake Forest
58%
42%
17
29
✗
TLSA −3.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
72%
28%
51
14
✓
WASH −9.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#13West Virginia
5.4%
95%
20
21
✓
WVU −25.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Lamar at Louisiana Louisiana −31.5 98%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Morehead State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −7.5 69%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD UNLV at Nevada Nevada −4.9 63%