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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockThe Citadel over Navy6.9% chance · won 14-10
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Akron7.0% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Central Michigan21% chance · won 24-20

Upsets

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
UTEP@#21Air Force
8.6%
91%
26
43
✓
AF −22.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#14Alabama
21%
79%
3
15
✓
ALA −13.4
–
–
Final
#19Washington@ArizonaUpset
51%
49%
17
20
✗
WASH −0.3
–
–
Final
#18Arkansas@Ole Miss
60%
40%
24
17
✓
ARK −3.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Army
32%
68%
10
14
✓
ARMY −8.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@Baylor
15%
85%
3
46
✓
BAY −17.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
79%
21%
20
24
✗
CMU −13.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Cal State Fullerton
78%
22%
41
41
✓
SDSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@California
21%
79%
14
20
✓
CAL −13.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
65%
35%
30
14
✓
CIN −6.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@#4Clemson
18%
82%
7
31
✓
CLEM −15.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Eastern Michigan
44%
56%
35
35
✗
EMU −2.6
–
–
Final
Florida@Memphis
65%
35%
38
13
✓
FLA −6.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@#12Florida State
9.9%
90%
9
59
✓
FSU −21.4
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Fresno State
2.7%
97%
0
52
✓
FRES −32.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#25Georgia
26%
74%
6
23
✓
UGA −10.9
–
–
Final
Utah@Hawaii
25%
75%
20
67
✓
HAW −11.2
–
–
Final
#5Houston@Arizona State
76%
24%
36
7
✓
HOU −11.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Illinois
7.0%
93%
2
41
✓
ILL −24.5
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
48%
52%
31
21
✗
ISU −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Rice
29%
71%
18
3
✗
RICE −9.1
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@Missouri
98%
1.5%
38
7
✓
MIA −36.0
–
–
Final
#11Michigan@UCLA
58%
42%
24
23
✓
MICH −3.3
–
–
Final
#9Nebraska@Minnesota
75%
25%
48
0
✓
NEB −11.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UNLV
34%
66%
14
26
✓
UNLV −6.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
17%
83%
6
40
✓
NCSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kansas State
67%
33%
37
20
✓
NIU −7.1
–
–
Final
#17Michigan State@#2Notre Dame
23%
77%
13
21
✓
ND −12.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Penn State
20%
80%
3
7
✓
PSU −14.1
–
–
Final
#13Syracuse@#22Pittsburgh
49%
51%
23
30
✓
PITT −0.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Northwestern
62%
38%
38
27
✓
RUTG −5.2
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose State
3.4%
97%
32
41
✓
SJSU −30.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@South Carolina
29%
71%
10
21
✓
SC −9.1
–
–
Final
Ohio State@#10USC
26%
74%
3
42
✓
USC −10.7
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@StanfordUpset
68%
32%
17
18
✗
ORE −7.8
–
–
Final
Texas@SMU
88%
12%
45
13
✓
TEX −19.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@TCU
66%
34%
17
19
✗
USM −6.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Oklahoma State
40%
60%
31
15
✗
OKST −4.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
63%
37%
22
29
✗
BALL −5.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Tulsa
16%
84%
33
35
✓
TLSA −16.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Vanderbilt
27%
73%
10
54
✓
VAN −10.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
25%
75%
28
49
✓
UVA −11.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Virginia Tech
15%
85%
0
23
✓
VT −17.0
–
–
Final
#16Washington State@Wyoming
69%
31%
29
23
✓
WSU −8.0
–
–
Final
#3West Virginia@Louisville
81%
19%
30
21
✓
WVU −14.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
67%
33%
26
4
✓
WMU −7.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD The Citadel at Navy Navy −24.7 93%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Illinois State at East Carolina East Carolina −34.0 98%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Oregon State at Boise State Oregon State −2.5 56%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Akron at Youngstown State Akron −24.4 93%