The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.0 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona State over Washington16% chance · won 34-32
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Arizona24% chance · won 29-28
  • Runner-upBall State over Central Michigan33% chance · won 13-13

Upsets

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Army@Air Force
18%
82%
3
29
✓
AF −14.0
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#12Alabama
12%
88%
10
23
✓
ALA −18.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#17WashingtonUpset
16%
84%
34
32
✗
WASH −15.6
–
–
Final
#9Arkansas@Rice
93%
7.3%
38
17
✓
ARK −23.7
–
–
Final
Florida@#14Auburn
28%
72%
7
10
✓
AUB −8.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
31%
69%
28
51
✓
BGSU −7.6
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@#25BYU
43%
57%
41
45
✓
BYU −2.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Cal State Fullerton
19%
81%
10
45
✓
Cal State Fullerton −13.5
–
–
Final
#19Arizona@CaliforniaUpset
76%
24%
28
29
✗
ARIZ −11.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
33%
67%
13
13
✗
CMU −6.4
–
–
Final
#11Clemson@North Carolina
95%
5.3%
35
3
✓
CLEM −26.3
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@#3Colorado
38%
62%
21
27
✓
COLO −4.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
66%
34%
52
35
✓
DUKE −7.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
12%
88%
7
20
✓
EMU −18.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#4Florida State
8.1%
92%
10
35
✓
FSU −22.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
20%
80%
30
31
✓
FRES −12.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#23Georgia
2.4%
98%
10
37
✓
UGA −31.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@#20Hawaii
6.6%
93%
7
26
✓
HAW −23.7
–
–
Final
#6Houston@TCU
91%
8.9%
55
10
✓
HOU −22.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
60%
40%
31
7
✓
ILL −4.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
13%
87%
11
36
✓
ISU −17.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Kentucky
8.1%
92%
0
31
✓
UK −22.0
–
–
Final
LSU@Ole Miss
53%
47%
35
30
✓
LSU −1.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#1Miami (FL)
1.9%
98%
10
40
✓
MIA −33.0
–
–
Final
Purdue@#8Michigan
2.0%
98%
27
42
✓
MICH −32.7
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@Indiana
50%
50%
51
20
✓
MSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
27%
73%
22
24
✓
MINN −9.3
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@UNLV
30%
70%
21
43
✓
UNLV −8.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Northern Illinois
67%
33%
20
23
✗
UL −7.3
–
–
Final
Navy@#2Notre Dame
0.5%
>99%
0
41
✓
ND −41.3
–
–
Final
Ohio State@Northwestern
76%
24%
52
27
✓
OSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#15Oklahoma
5.7%
94%
14
52
✓
OU −24.9
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Kansas
76%
24%
37
24
✓
OKST −11.6
–
–
Final
#10West Virginia@#24Penn State
55%
44%
9
19
✗
WVU −2.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
23%
77%
28
45
✓
SDSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#7USC
6.6%
93%
6
48
✓
USC −23.8
–
–
Final
UCLA@Stanford
59%
41%
14
17
✗
UCLA −4.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
20%
80%
11
23
✓
SYR −12.8
–
–
Final
SMU@#13Texas A&M
0.5%
>99%
14
63
✓
TA&M −41.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas
36%
64%
24
17
✗
TEX −5.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
55%
45%
18
19
✗
WMU −2.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
35%
65%
34
38
✓
TULN −5.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
63%
37%
38
10
✓
USU −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC State
39%
61%
20
9
✗
NCSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Virginia Tech
23%
77%
0
18
✓
VT −11.2
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
44%
56%
35
56
✓
WYO −1.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Northern Arizona at Akron Akron −18.5 88%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Western Carolina at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −37.3 99%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −19.0 89%
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −17.9 87%