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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 74

Wilder than 74% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas State over North Texas7.9% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upDuke over Clemson9.7% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Stanford20% chance · won 40-33

Upsets

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
#23Air Force@Colorado State
74%
26%
46
21
✓
AF −10.4
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
65%
35%
38
24
✓
AKR −6.1
–
–
Final
#14Alabama@Vanderbilt
79%
21%
20
14
✓
ALA −13.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Arizona State
38%
62%
3
19
✓
ASU −5.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@#13Arkansas
5.8%
94%
7
39
✓
ARK −26.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
53%
47%
15
29
✗
TTU −1.2
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah State
95%
4.7%
37
10
✓
BYU −27.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Cal State Fullerton
44%
56%
20
34
✓
Cal State Fullerton −2.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
77%
23%
20
7
✓
CMU −12.1
–
–
Final
#10Colorado@#22Washington
54%
46%
45
28
✓
COLO −1.4
–
–
Final
#5Clemson@DukeUpset
90%
9.7%
17
21
✗
CLEM −21.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
34%
66%
21
20
✗
WMU −6.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Florida
26%
74%
0
21
✓
FLA −10.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
8.4%
92%
14
60
✓
HAW −23.0
–
–
Final
Temple@#3Houston
0.8%
99%
7
65
✓
HOU −40.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@#24Indiana
10.0%
90%
12
32
✓
IU −21.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Iowa
37%
63%
22
30
✓
IOWA −5.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Tulane
40%
60%
25
24
✗
TULN −4.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@LSU
3.9%
96%
6
57
✓
LSU −29.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Louisiana Tech
62%
38%
29
29
✓
ECU −5.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
26%
74%
17
37
✓
LOU −10.9
–
–
Final
#1Miami (FL)@#16Michigan State
90%
10%
26
20
✓
MIA −20.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#12Michigan
21%
79%
21
41
✓
MICH −13.4
–
–
Final
Navy@North Carolina
26%
74%
12
7
✗
UNC −11.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#4Nebraska
6.1%
94%
7
35
✓
NEB −25.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@NC State
2.4%
98%
22
42
✓
NCSU −32.7
–
–
Final
#2Notre Dame@Purdue
95%
5.1%
40
7
✓
ND −27.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Ohio State
31%
70%
29
34
✓
OSU −8.6
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Kansas
98%
2.5%
45
6
✓
OU −32.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Oklahoma State
46%
54%
7
27
✓
OKST −1.7
–
–
Final
#25Arizona@#19Oregon
35%
65%
10
16
✓
ORE −6.4
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Pacific
45%
55%
25
26
✓
Pacific −2.2
–
–
Final
Penn State@Texas
49%
51%
16
12
✗
TEX −0.4
–
–
Final
#7West Virginia@#21Pittsburgh
57%
43%
31
31
✓
WVU −2.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Rice
54%
46%
17
17
✓
WAKE −1.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Utah
37%
63%
38
27
✗
UTAH −5.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@StanfordUpset
20%
80%
40
33
✗
STAN −14.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#20GeorgiaUpset
21%
79%
24
20
✗
UGA −13.6
–
–
Final
#6USC@#15Washington State
55%
45%
18
17
✓
USC −1.8
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@TennesseeUpset
63%
37%
14
21
✗
AUB −5.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#17Texas A&M
20%
80%
14
31
✓
TA&M −14.3
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
6.6%
93%
10
28
✓
TCU −25.1
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
28%
72%
6
24
✓
UCLA −10.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Harvard at Army Army −25.2 94%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD North Texas at Kansas State North Texas −23.3 92%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana −5.1 62%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Indiana State at Minnesota Minnesota −26.3 94%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −22.8 92%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −33.2 98%