The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1989

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockSMU over North Texas7.6% chance · won 35-9
  • Runner-upArizona State over Washington State19% chance · won 44-39
  • Runner-upJames Madison over Navy32% chance · won 24-20

Upsets

Sat, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
28%
72%
0
31
✓
AKR −8.6
–
–
Final
55%
45%
17
16
✓
ALA −2.6
–
–
Final
Pacific@#18Arizona
0.3%
>99%
14
38
✓
ARIZ −44.9
–
–
Final
80%
20%
39
44
✗
WSU −14.2
–
–
Final
56%
44%
39
45
✗
HOU −3.0
–
–
Final
37%
63%
14
35
✓
ARMY −4.7
–
–
Final
14%
86%
0
14
✓
AUB −16.7
–
–
Final
29%
71%
9
27
✓
BAY −8.3
–
–
Final
38%
62%
9
24
✓
CMU −4.2
–
–
Final
5.8%
94%
10
44
✓
CLEM −24.8
–
–
Final
59%
41%
20
3
✓
COLO −4.1
–
–
Final
50%
50%
50
10
✓
CSU −0.6
–
–
Final
40%
60%
19
30
✓
DUKE −3.6
–
–
Final
66%
34%
10
24
✗
MIA −7.0
–
–
Final
3.1%
97%
17
31
✓
FRES −29.5
–
–
Final
26%
74%
23
34
✓
UGA −10.0
–
–
Final
#16BYU@HawaiiUpset
57%
43%
14
56
✗
BYU −3.3
–
–
Final
8.9%
91%
9
32
✓
ILL −21.1
–
–
Final
73%
27%
35
22
✓
IOWA −10.3
–
–
Final
45%
55%
21
16
✗
KSU −1.6
–
–
Final
44%
56%
31
34
✓
LT −1.7
–
–
Final
17%
83%
0
38
✓
MD −14.9
–
–
Final
53%
47%
13
17
✗
BGSU −1.8
–
–
Final
25%
75%
10
38
✓
MICH −10.5
–
–
Final
90%
10%
28
21
✓
MSU −20.5
–
–
Final
23%
77%
16
24
✓
MISS −11.4
–
–
Final
2.1%
98%
17
49
✓
NEB −32.4
–
–
Final
40%
60%
20
10
✗
SC −3.5
–
–
Final
56%
44%
20
17
✓
NIU −3.1
–
–
Final
17%
83%
7
45
✓
ND −14.6
–
–
Final
55%
45%
41
37
✓
OSU −2.5
–
–
Final
55%
45%
31
30
✓
OKST −2.5
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@#22Oregon
1.0%
99%
10
52
✓
ORE −37.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
25
14
✗
CAL −2.9
–
–
Final
51%
49%
34
31
✓
SDSU −0.8
–
–
Final
5.1%
95%
6
34
✓
SJSU −25.8
–
–
Final
6.8%
93%
0
19
✓
USC −23.4
–
–
Final
62%
38%
31
7
✓
USM −5.5
–
–
Final
25%
75%
16
18
✓
SYR −10.4
–
–
Final
45%
55%
45
39
✗
LSU −1.7
–
–
Final
87%
13%
45
7
✓
TA&M −18.4
–
–
Final
66%
34%
47
42
✓
TOL −7.1
–
–
Final
23%
77%
15
16
✓
UVA −11.3
–
–
Final
26%
74%
13
30
✓
VT −10.1
–
–
Final
54%
46%
28
27
✓
WASH −2.1
–
–
Final
85%
15%
44
30
✓
WVU −16.8
–
–
Final
16%
84%
13
28
✓
WMU −15.5
–
–
Final
74%
26%
24
23
✓
WYO −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Oct 26 · TBD Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −35.1 99%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD James Madison at Navy Navy −6.8 68%
Sat, Oct 28 · TBD North Texas at SMU North Texas −23.4 92%