The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 39 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 70

Wilder than 70% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 8.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMichigan over Ohio State9.8% chance · won 13-9
  • Runner-upOle Miss over Georgia15% chance · won 31-27
  • Runner-upToledo over Ohio22% chance · won 24-23

Upsets

Thu, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@SMU
26%
74%
24
27
✓
SMU −9.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 37 games

Final
Auburn@#21Alabama
31%
69%
23
24
✓
ALA −7.6
–
–
Final
#8Arizona State@Arizona
70%
30%
56
14
✓
ASU −8.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Mississippi State
32%
68%
16
13
✗
MSST −6.8
–
–
Final
#16BYU@Utah
67%
33%
37
17
✓
BYU −7.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Cincinnati
4.5%
96%
13
35
✓
CIN −26.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
69%
31%
20
10
✓
ECU −8.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@#4Florida State
0.8%
99%
10
48
✓
FSU −38.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@Boise State
52%
48%
64
19
✓
Idaho −1.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
32%
68%
33
16
✗
PUR −6.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
70%
30%
43
24
✓
IOWA −9.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#13Kansas State
4.7%
95%
20
35
✓
KSU −26.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@LSU
12%
88%
17
35
✓
LSU −18.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@#19Miami (FL)
7.3%
93%
26
43
✓
MIA −22.9
–
–
Final
#17Michigan@#2Ohio StateUpset
9.8%
90%
13
9
✗
OSU −20.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@GeorgiaUpset
15%
85%
31
27
✗
UGA −16.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
66%
34%
25
42
✗
KU −7.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Georgia Tech
40%
60%
36
26
✗
GT −3.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
11%
89%
17
44
✓
UNM −19.0
–
–
Final
#5North Carolina@Duke
98%
2.3%
27
10
✓
UNC −32.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
19%
81%
22
37
✓
NCSU −13.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#7Notre Dame
0.7%
99%
0
62
✓
ND −39.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
64%
36%
17
37
✗
BAY −6.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
78%
22%
49
13
✓
ORE −12.9
–
–
Final
#23Michigan State@#10Penn State
23%
77%
29
32
✓
PSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Rice
20%
80%
14
42
✓
RICE −13.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
12%
88%
21
31
✓
SDSU −18.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
34%
66%
28
31
✓
SJSU −6.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Clemson
41%
59%
34
31
✗
CLEM −3.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
34%
66%
42
21
✗
CAL −5.9
–
–
Final
#6Syracuse@Temple
97%
3.1%
36
15
✓
SYR −30.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#9Tennessee
2.5%
98%
10
56
✓
TENN −31.0
–
–
Final
#15Texas Tech@Oklahoma
85%
15%
22
12
✓
TTU −17.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@OhioUpset
22%
78%
24
23
✗
OHIO −11.7
–
–
Final
#24USC@UCLAUpset
50%
50%
41
48
✓
USC −0.3
–
–
Final
#25West Virginia@#18Virginia Tech
30%
70%
14
31
✓
VT −7.9
–
–
Final
#12Washington@Washington State
78%
22%
31
24
✓
WASH −12.5
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
70%
30%
35
15
✓
WIS −8.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Nov 21 · TBD Charleston Southern at UAB UAB −8.2 71%