The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 40 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 48

Wilder than 48% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 9.9 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Illinois over Western Michigan7.9% chance · won 28-20
  • Runner-upCentral Michigan over Boise State19% chance · won 42-21
  • Runner-upTulane over Cincinnati20% chance · won 34-14

Upsets

Thu, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Ball State@#21Kansas
23%
77%
10
35
✓
KU −11.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
49%
51%
28
7
✗
UNM −0.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
35%
65%
14
44
✓
OHIO −5.4
–
–

Fri, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Tulane@CincinnatiUpset
20%
80%
34
14
✗
CIN −12.5
–
–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 26 games

Final
San Jose State@Air Force
12%
88%
0
45
✓
AF −17.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#24Alabama
23%
77%
7
21
✓
ALA −10.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Arizona
16%
84%
3
23
✓
ARIZ −15.2
–
–
Final
UAB@#15Auburn
5.2%
95%
0
29
✓
AUB −24.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Hawaii
58%
42%
24
21
✓
BC −3.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@BYU
34%
66%
9
58
✓
BYU −5.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#23Boise StateUpset
19%
81%
42
21
✗
BOIS −12.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@#6Colorado
19%
81%
19
37
✓
COLO −12.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#2Florida
11%
89%
21
55
✓
FLA −18.6
–
–
Final
#17Texas Tech@#8Kansas State
31%
69%
14
21
✓
KSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
47%
53%
38
14
✗
UK −0.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Maryland
22%
78%
6
30
✓
MD −11.2
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@Memphis
78%
22%
30
7
✓
MIA −12.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
9.4%
91%
6
64
✓
M-OH −20.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#11Michigan
31%
69%
8
20
✓
MICH −7.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
45%
55%
14
52
✓
MSU −1.5
–
–
Final
Clemson@North Carolina
41%
59%
0
45
✓
UNC −3.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@Fresno State
57%
43%
30
27
✓
ORE −3.1
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
50%
50%
10
17
✓
TLSA −0.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Georgia
40%
60%
11
7
✗
UGA −3.5
–
–
Final
Temple@Eastern Michigan
36%
64%
28
24
✗
EMU −4.8
–
–
Final
UNLV@#7Tennessee
3.2%
97%
3
62
✓
TENN −28.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@#16Texas
20%
80%
10
40
✓
TEX −12.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Utah State
60%
40%
17
20
✗
UTAH −4.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
53%
47%
34
0
✓
WVU −1.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Wyoming
3.8%
96%
38
40
✓
WYO −27.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 29 · TBD William & Mary at UCF UCF −29.8 97%
Thu, Aug 29 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Western Michigan Western Michigan −21.6 92%
Thu, Aug 29 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −16.9 87%
Thu, Aug 29 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Appalachian State −0.6 50%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Chattanooga at Colorado State Colorado State −43.3 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Sam Houston at Houston Houston −10.9 77%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −9.9 75%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Idaho State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −35.6 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Missouri State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −13.3 81%
Sat, Aug 31 · TBD Villanova at Rutgers Rutgers −22.8 93%