The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 47 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 36

Wilder than 36% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.0 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Washington over Boise State9.1% chance · won 27-21
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Texas A&M26% chance · won 29-22
  • Runner-upRice over Tulane27% chance · won 21-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#6Miami (FL)@Rutgers
91%
9.3%
33
0
✓
MIA −21.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 42 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#23Alabama
17%
83%
26
36
✓
ALA −16.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@UAB
62%
38%
17
42
✗
ARST −4.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Arizona
27%
73%
0
41
✓
ARIZ −10.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arizona State
6.8%
93%
7
52
✓
ASU −24.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Army
31%
69%
20
37
✓
ARMY −8.5
–
–
Final
#10Auburn@Ole Miss
79%
21%
45
28
✓
AUB −13.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Louisville
43%
57%
14
13
✗
LOU −3.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Bowling Green
41%
59%
16
20
✓
BGSU −3.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@California
48%
52%
37
42
✓
CAL −0.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
49%
51%
19
12
✗
WMU −0.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Georgia Tech
27%
73%
10
30
✓
GT −10.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Pittsburgh
44%
56%
42
35
✗
PITT −2.5
–
–
Final
#25Miami (OH)@IndianaUpset
51%
49%
14
21
✗
M-OH −0.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
15%
85%
13
38
✓
IOWA −17.1
–
–
Final
#20Kansas@TCU
61%
39%
52
17
✓
KU −4.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#15Kansas State
18%
82%
0
35
✓
KSU −15.6
–
–
Final
#22Texas A&M@LouisianaUpset
74%
26%
22
29
✗
TA&M −10.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Central Michigan
36%
64%
38
37
✗
CMU −6.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Missouri
38%
62%
19
16
✗
MIZ −5.2
–
–
Final
#16Michigan@#7Colorado
29%
71%
20
13
✗
COLO −9.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Minnesota
24%
76%
23
26
✓
MINN −11.7
–
–
Final
UCF@New Mexico
21%
79%
7
17
✓
UNM −13.5
–
–
Final
#24Northwestern@Duke
75%
25%
38
13
✓
NU −10.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@#14Notre Dame
15%
85%
0
35
✓
ND −17.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
42%
58%
9
30
✓
OKST −3.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Oregon
31%
68%
28
35
✓
ORE −8.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#5Penn State
0.3%
>99%
0
49
✓
PSU −44.9
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
27%
73%
21
14
✗
TULN −10.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
39%
61%
14
23
✓
SC −4.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#9USC
2.3%
98%
17
46
✓
USC −33.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@Southern Miss
32%
68%
24
31
✓
USM −7.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
5.7%
94%
2
25
✓
STAN −26.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
42%
58%
7
14
✓
UTEP −3.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Akron
72%
28%
27
10
✓
TOL −9.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UCLA
3.4%
97%
0
44
✓
UCLA −30.3
–
–
Final
Utah@SMU
65%
35%
21
17
✓
UTAH −6.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@#13Virginia
19%
81%
3
21
✓
UVA −14.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Boston College
58%
42%
45
7
✓
VT −3.3
–
–
Final
#21BYU@WashingtonUpset
50%
50%
17
29
✓
WASH −0.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#17West Virginia
20%
80%
9
10
✓
WVU −13.9
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@UNLV
96%
3.6%
52
17
✓
WIS −29.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
24%
76%
0
66
✓
WYO −11.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Eastern Washington at Boise State Boise State −22.2 91%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Saint Mary's (CA) at Idaho Idaho −0.2 50%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Youngstown State at Kent State Youngstown State −0.6 52%
Sat, Sep 14 · TBD Montana State at Nevada Nevada −27.9 95%