The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockCincinnati over Louisville21% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upKentucky over Georgia22% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upUCLA over California37% chance · won 38-29

Upsets

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
1.2%
99%
7
34
✓
AF −35.9
–
–
Final
48%
52%
34
17
✗
NIU −0.5
–
–
Final
4.1%
96%
7
33
✓
ARIZ −27.5
–
–
Final
84%
16%
41
9
✓
ASU −16.4
–
–
Final
44%
56%
27
7
✗
M-OH −1.8
–
–
Final
50%
50%
24
17
✗
BALL −0.3
–
–
Final
20%
80%
21
49
✓
BAY −12.9
–
–
Final
#21BYU@TCU
84%
16%
45
21
✓
BYU −16.4
–
–
Final
21%
79%
10
7
✗
LOU −12.4
–
–
Final
18%
82%
24
28
✓
COLO −14.1
–
–
Final
63%
37%
18
27
✗
SDSU −5.6
–
–
Final
18%
82%
10
51
✓
EMU −14.2
–
–
Final
20%
80%
24
31
✓
FSU −12.8
–
–
Final
77%
23%
34
23
✓
FRES −12.4
–
–
Final
5.7%
94%
20
27
✓
GT −24.9
–
–
Final
4.2%
96%
35
42
✓
KSU −27.4
–
–
Final
78%
22%
17
24
✗
UGA −12.7
–
–
Final
26%
74%
9
13
✓
UL −9.6
–
–
Final
8.0%
92%
20
28
✓
LSU −22.1
–
–
Final
22%
78%
31
35
✓
LT −11.7
–
–
Final
68%
32%
22
19
✓
MD −8.2
–
–
Final
43%
57%
10
7
✗
WVU −2.3
–
–
Final
70%
30%
44
10
✓
MICH −9.0
–
–
Final
35%
65%
13
30
✓
MSU −5.5
–
–
Final
16%
84%
21
38
✓
MISS −15.3
–
–
Final
48%
52%
28
35
✓
MIZ −0.3
–
–
Final
77%
23%
47
18
✓
NAVY −12.4
–
–
Final
4.6%
95%
7
63
✓
NEB −26.7
–
–
Final
83%
17%
40
13
✓
NEV −15.7
–
–
Final
86%
14%
42
14
✓
UNC −18.0
–
–
Final
8.2%
92%
24
27
✓
NU −21.9
–
–
Final
42%
58%
0
38
✓
OHIO −2.6
–
–
Final
79%
21%
38
26
✓
OSU −13.1
–
–
Final
79%
21%
48
26
✓
PSU −13.4
–
–
Final
60%
40%
48
21
✓
RICE −4.7
–
–
Final
45%
55%
17
28
✓
RUTG −1.5
–
–
Final
58%
42%
27
0
✓
SC −3.8
–
–
Final
57%
43%
29
24
✓
USC −3.2
–
–
Final
48%
52%
31
52
✓
SMU −0.1
–
–
Final
78%
22%
31
28
✓
USM −12.7
–
–
Final
76%
24%
45
17
✓
SYR −11.9
–
–
Final
21%
79%
13
20
✓
TENN −12.5
–
–
Final
54%
46%
13
10
✓
TTU −1.9
–
–
Final
19%
82%
7
10
✓
TOL −13.9
–
–
Final
37%
63%
38
29
✗
CAL −4.6
–
–
Final
14%
86%
19
45
✓
UTAH −17.2
–
–
Final
11%
89%
28
35
✓
USU −18.9
–
–
Final
4.3%
96%
17
34
✓
VT −27.2
–
–
Final
69%
31%
33
14
✓
WASH −8.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 26 · TBD Southern Utah at New Mexico State Southern Utah −0.6 50%