The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 68

Wilder than 68% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockMontana over Oregon State6.5% chance · won 35-14
  • Runner-upWestern Illinois over Northern Illinois6.5% chance · won 17-0
  • Runner-upSMU over Arkansas21% chance · won 23-10

Upsets

Thu, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#25Notre Dame@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
14
7
✓
ND −9.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
#23Air Force@UNLV
96%
4.4%
65
17
✓
AF −27.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#24Alabama
32%
68%
10
20
✓
ALA −6.9
–
–
Final
Washington@Arizona State
48%
52%
42
45
✓
ASU −0.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#18Auburn
16%
84%
0
62
✓
AUB −15.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@Louisiana Tech
60%
40%
24
16
✓
BAY −4.5
–
–
Final
California@San Jose State
78%
22%
45
25
✓
CAL −12.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Cincinnati
34%
66%
3
24
✓
CIN −5.7
–
–
Final
#5Colorado@Colorado State
73%
27%
48
34
✓
COLO −10.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#11Florida State
9.8%
90%
7
44
✓
FSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
43%
57%
28
16
✗
NCSU −2.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Toledo
29%
72%
40
6
✗
TOL −8.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Iowa
42%
58%
20
21
✓
IOWA −2.6
–
–
Final
Houston@LSU
18%
82%
34
35
✓
LSU −14.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Maryland
3.4%
97%
15
39
✓
MD −28.0
–
–
Final
#20Miami (OH)@Ball State
76%
24%
16
6
✓
M-OH −11.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Louisiana-Monroe
80%
20%
30
3
✓
MINN −13.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
44%
56%
31
10
✗
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Rutgers
45%
55%
10
6
✗
RUTG −1.6
–
–
Final
#12Michigan State@#6Nebraska
27%
73%
14
55
✓
NEB −8.8
–
–
Final
#10North Carolina@Syracuse
57%
43%
27
10
✓
UNC −3.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Hawaii
36%
64%
21
10
✗
HAW −4.8
–
–
Final
Rice@#14Ohio State
9.7%
90%
7
70
✓
OSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Oregon
23%
77%
30
44
✓
ORE −10.8
–
–
Final
#21Louisville@#4Penn State
21%
79%
7
24
✓
PSU −12.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Pittsburgh
12%
88%
14
52
✓
PITT −17.6
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Diego State
2.5%
98%
21
40
✓
SDSU −30.3
–
–
Final
UCF@South Carolina
17%
83%
14
33
✓
SC −14.5
–
–
Final
#22USC@Illinois
47%
53%
55
3
✗
ILL −0.8
–
–
Final
SMU@ArkansasUpset
21%
79%
23
10
✗
ARK −12.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@#3Tennessee
11%
89%
20
35
✓
TENN −18.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#9Texas
3.0%
97%
7
41
✓
TEX −29.1
–
–
Final
TCU@Oklahoma
35%
65%
20
7
✗
OU −5.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#19Texas Tech
14%
86%
3
31
✓
TTU −16.4
–
–
Final
Utah@Stanford
45%
55%
17
10
✗
STAN −1.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Virginia
34%
66%
21
55
✓
UVA −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Akron
93%
6.6%
21
18
✓
VT −23.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Wake Forest
72%
28%
27
28
✗
NU −9.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@Temple
52%
48%
38
34
✓
WSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#16West Virginia
7.0%
93%
9
34
✓
WVU −22.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Wisconsin
22%
78%
3
24
✓
WIS −11.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Iowa State
49%
51%
41
38
✗
WYO −0.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Austin Peay at Arkansas State Arkansas State −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Portland State at Boise State Boise State −26.7 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Furman at Clemson Clemson −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD East Tennessee State at East Carolina East Carolina −41.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Georgia Southern at #1 Florida Florida −42.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Indiana State at #7 Kansas State Kansas State −57.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD The Citadel at #2 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −46.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD VMI at Ole Miss Ole Miss −23.7 94%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Montana at Oregon State Oregon State −23.2 94%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Northern Arizona at New Mexico New Mexico −33.8 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Illinois State at North Texas North Texas −18.3 89%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Utah State Utah State −23.1 93%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD Western Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −23.1 94%