The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 28

Wilder than 28% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockCalifornia over USC12% chance · won 22-15
  • Runner-upNC State over Maryland17% chance · won 34-8
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Virginia26% chance · won 13-7

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
8.2%
92%
3
41
✓
TENN −23.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
69%
31%
45
17
✓
BYU −7.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 43 games

Final
7.5%
92%
7
35
✓
ALA −24.0
–
–
Final
31%
69%
26
34
✓
ARIZ −8.4
–
–
Final
2.3%
98%
7
56
✓
ASU −33.3
–
–
Final
11%
89%
24
28
✓
AUB −20.2
–
–
Final
69%
31%
28
5
✓
BALL −7.9
–
–
Final
California@#10USCUpset
12%
88%
22
15
✗
USC −19.4
–
–
Final
76%
24%
28
16
✓
CSU −11.4
–
–
Final
94%
5.7%
42
7
✓
FLA −26.1
–
–
Final
1.5%
98%
3
34
✓
FSU −36.1
–
–
Final
46%
54%
38
19
✗
MSST −1.8
–
–
Final
74%
26%
7
13
✗
UVA −10.4
–
–
Final
35%
65%
31
24
✗
UL −6.4
–
–
Final
50%
50%
43
46
✗
IU −0.1
–
–
Final
40%
60%
30
37
✓
IOWA −4.3
–
–
Final
87%
13%
52
24
✓
KU −18.7
–
–
Final
56%
44%
17
32
✗
AKR −2.6
–
–
Final
9.9%
90%
0
35
✓
LSU −21.4
–
–
Final
52%
48%
16
18
✗
CIN −0.9
–
–
Final
23%
77%
14
46
✓
M-OH −12.6
–
–
Final
32%
68%
27
26
✗
SMU −7.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
27
64
✓
NAVY −12.0
–
–
Final
62%
38%
39
3
✓
NEB −4.9
–
–
Final
86%
14%
54
17
✓
NEV −17.7
–
–
Final
90%
10%
45
6
✓
UNC −20.8
–
–
Final
17%
83%
34
8
✗
MD −15.8
–
–
Final
45%
55%
24
21
✗
NIU −2.0
–
–
Final
44%
56%
16
17
✓
NU −2.7
–
–
Final
30%
70%
0
7
✓
OHIO −9.0
–
–
Final
26%
74%
7
38
✓
OSU −10.9
–
–
Final
48%
52%
52
53
✓
PITT −1.1
–
–
Final
52%
48%
27
30
✗
MINN −0.8
–
–
Final
58%
42%
21
38
✗
UNM −3.5
–
–
Final
6.6%
93%
0
42
✓
SYR −25.1
–
–
Final
20%
80%
14
71
✓
TEX −14.3
–
–
Final
18%
82%
13
63
✓
TA&M −15.2
–
–
Final
30%
70%
24
45
✓
TTU −8.9
–
–
Final
45%
55%
16
24
✓
TOL −2.3
–
–
Final
40%
60%
7
35
✓
TULN −4.3
–
–
Final
42%
58%
41
22
✗
ORE −3.6
–
–
Final
82%
18%
34
27
✓
UTAH −15.1
–
–
Final
17%
83%
6
27
✓
WASH −15.8
–
–
Final
12%
88%
17
34
✓
WVU −19.6
–
–
Final
89%
11%
45
22
✓
WYO −20.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Western Kentucky at UAB UAB −2.4 56%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Central Arkansas at Arkansas State Arkansas State −6.1 64%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Yale at Army Army −30.5 97%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Cal Poly at Idaho Idaho −6.3 64%
Sat, Oct 5 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −11.8 76%