The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 13.9 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona State over Nebraska12% chance · won 19-0
  • Runner-upCal State Northridge over New Mexico State14% chance · won 33-0
  • Runner-upTulsa over Iowa15% chance · won 27-20

Upsets

Thu, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#4Florida State@NC State
92%
8.2%
51
17
✓
FSU −23.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Alabama@Arkansas
69%
31%
17
7
✓
ALA −8.2
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Arizona StateUpset
88%
12%
0
19
✗
NEB −19.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Army
17%
83%
17
35
✓
ARMY −15.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Ball State
24%
76%
10
31
✓
BALL −11.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Baylor
5.1%
95%
10
42
✓
BAY −27.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)Upset
17%
83%
14
10
✗
M-OH −16.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
21%
79%
14
17
✓
BYU −13.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@California
36%
64%
15
33
✓
CAL −6.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
25%
75%
28
38
✓
CMU −11.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
2.7%
97%
16
35
✓
CSU −32.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@South Carolina
38%
62%
23
7
✗
SC −5.3
–
–
Final
#3Florida@#7Tennessee
55%
45%
35
29
✓
FLA −2.0
–
–
Final
#18Texas Tech@GeorgiaUpset
69%
31%
12
15
✗
TTU −8.1
–
–
Final
Boise State@Hawaii
66%
34%
14
20
✗
BOIS −6.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Illinois
15%
85%
7
38
✓
ILL −17.2
–
–
Final
#11Kansas State@Rice
86%
14%
34
7
✓
KSU −18.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@KentuckyUpset
78%
22%
0
3
✗
IU −12.8
–
–
Final
LSU@#8AuburnUpset
20%
80%
19
15
✗
AUB −14.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Mississippi StateUpset
23%
77%
38
23
✗
MSST −12.3
–
–
Final
Louisville@Michigan State
40%
60%
30
20
✗
MSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
49%
51%
10
17
✓
MEM −0.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@#16Michigan
7.0%
93%
14
20
✓
MICH −24.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Minnesota
54%
46%
33
35
✗
SYR −1.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
41%
59%
20
9
✗
VAN −4.0
–
–
Final
Clemson@Missouri
48%
52%
24
38
✓
MIZ −1.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
37%
63%
17
19
✓
NAVY −5.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#15North Carolina
21%
78%
0
16
✓
UNC −13.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Arkansas State
33%
67%
31
30
✗
ARST −7.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@#20Northwestern
7.7%
92%
7
28
✓
NU −23.7
–
–
Final
#9Notre Dame@#17Texas
49%
51%
27
24
✗
TEX −0.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#2Ohio State
1.9%
98%
0
72
✓
OSU −34.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@Oklahoma State
45%
55%
17
31
✓
OKST −2.3
–
–
Final
Temple@#6Penn State
3.9%
96%
0
41
✓
PSU −29.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@San Diego State
27%
73%
31
51
✓
SDSU −10.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@San Jose State
61%
39%
25
26
✗
UTEP −4.5
–
–
Final
#13USC@Houston
81%
19%
26
9
✓
USC −14.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
31%
69%
27
52
✓
USM −8.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas A&M
2.9%
97%
0
55
✓
TA&M −31.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
50%
50%
24
7
✗
EMU −0.2
–
–
Final
#23Iowa@TulsaUpset
85%
15%
20
27
✗
IOWA −16.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah
16%
84%
17
45
✓
UTAH −16.6
–
–
Final
#14Virginia@Wake Forest
86%
14%
42
7
✓
UVA −17.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#19Virginia Tech
6.3%
94%
14
30
✓
VT −25.4
–
–
Final
#22Arizona@#24Washington
42%
58%
17
31
✓
WASH −3.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@Washington State
56%
44%
44
55
✗
ORE −2.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Purdue
74%
26%
20
6
✓
WVU −10.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@#25Wisconsin
27%
73%
0
14
✓
WIS −10.3
–
–
Final
#21Air Force@WyomingUpset
60%
40%
19
22
✗
AF −3.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Jacksonville State at UAB UAB −1.3 53%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Cal State Northridge at New Mexico State New Mexico State −17.9 86%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −18.4 86%
Sat, Sep 21 · TBD Sam Houston at Louisiana-Monroe Sam Houston −1.2 53%