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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 44 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 30

Wilder than 30% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 10.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Boise State8.1% chance · won 20-16
  • Runner-upSouthern Miss over Louisville35% chance · won 24-7
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Louisiana Tech35% chance · won 37-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
16%
84%
22
48
✓
GT −16.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 40 games

Final
Rice@Air Force
10%
90%
17
45
✓
AF −21.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Akron
62%
38%
7
27
✗
WMU −5.1
–
–
Final
Oregon@#16Arizona State
22%
78%
27
48
✓
ASU −12.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas
6.9%
93%
21
38
✓
ARK −24.6
–
–
Final
Army@North Texas
92%
8.0%
27
10
✓
ARMY −23.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Boston College
45%
55%
38
43
✓
BC −2.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
36%
64%
27
31
✓
BGSU −5.8
–
–
Final
SMU@BYU
21%
79%
3
31
✓
BYU −13.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
6.3%
94%
42
48
✓
CAL −25.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
62%
38%
23
30
✗
M-OH −4.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Clemson
39%
61%
10
21
✓
CLEM −4.8
–
–
Final
#13Colorado@Texas A&M
57%
43%
24
10
✓
COLO −3.0
–
–
Final
UCF@East Carolina
6.2%
94%
7
28
✓
ECU −25.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#2Florida
1.8%
98%
0
65
✓
FLA −34.7
–
–
Final
#14North Carolina@#3Florida State
23%
77%
0
13
✓
FSU −12.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
29%
71%
0
20
✓
FRES −9.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Iowa State
46%
54%
31
45
✓
ISU −1.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
35%
65%
37
31
✗
LT −6.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@LSU
1.7%
98%
7
63
✓
LSU −35.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#6Miami (FL)
1.9%
98%
0
45
✓
MIA −34.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@#18Michigan
29%
71%
9
38
✓
MICH −9.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
17%
83%
0
47
✓
MSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
36%
64%
14
10
✗
SC −6.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#4Nebraska
5.1%
95%
9
65
✓
NEB −27.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Nevada
5.3%
95%
42
63
✓
NEV −26.8
–
–
Final
TCU@New Mexico
42%
58%
7
27
✓
UNM −3.7
–
–
Final
#21Northwestern@Indiana
57%
43%
35
17
✓
NU −2.8
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#11Notre Dame
64%
36%
29
16
✓
OSU −5.9
–
–
Final
#5Penn State@#23Wisconsin
69%
31%
23
20
✓
PSU −8.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Purdue
37%
63%
21
42
✓
PUR −5.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisville
35%
65%
24
7
✗
LOU −6.4
–
–
Final
#20Virginia Tech@SyracuseUpset
57%
43%
21
52
✗
VT −2.7
–
–
Final
Utah State@#22Texas Tech
15%
85%
20
58
✓
TTU −17.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Northern Illinois
56%
44%
37
6
✓
UTEP −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma
40%
60%
31
24
✗
OU −4.3
–
–
Final
#12Kansas@UtahUpset
61%
39%
42
45
✗
KU −4.6
–
–
Final
#19Texas@#7Virginia
29%
71%
13
37
✓
UVA −9.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington State
4.9%
95%
16
52
✓
WSU −27.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#24West Virginia
22%
78%
0
13
✓
WVU −12.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
95%
5.1%
33
21
✓
WYO −27.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Northwestern State at Boise State Boise State −23.3 92%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Idaho at Texas State Texas State −8.5 69%
Sat, Sep 28 · TBD Weber State at Toledo Toledo −32.2 97%