The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 95

Wilder than 95% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 11.3 expected

  • Biggest shockAkron over Miami (OH)5.7% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upEast Carolina over Miami (FL)9.8% chance · won 31-6
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Baylor13% chance · won 28-24

Upsets

Sat, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Air Force@#8Notre DameUpset
18%
82%
20
17
✗
ND −14.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@AkronUpset
94%
5.7%
7
10
✗
M-OH −25.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Alabama
12%
88%
0
37
✓
ALA −18.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@UAB
68%
32%
29
39
✗
UL −8.1
–
–
Final
#19USC@#12Arizona State
30%
70%
35
48
✓
ASU −7.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
22%
78%
10
34
✓
ARMY −11.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
45%
55%
16
11
✗
BGSU −1.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
19%
82%
13
37
✓
BC −13.9
–
–
Final
#24BYU@Tulsa
74%
26%
55
30
✓
BYU −10.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
23%
77%
36
41
✓
CMU −11.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Cincinnati
45%
55%
20
31
✓
CIN −1.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Clemson
71%
29%
25
28
✗
GT −9.1
–
–
Final
#9Colorado@#18Kansas
49%
51%
20
7
✗
PK
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado State
5.7%
94%
13
36
✓
CSU −24.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#7Miami (FL)Upset
9.8%
90%
31
6
✗
MIA −20.2
–
–
Final
#17Auburn@#2Florida
11%
89%
10
51
✓
FLA −19.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Georgia
14%
86%
2
13
✓
UGA −17.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
23%
77%
28
38
✓
HAW −11.2
–
–
Final
Nevada@IdahoUpset
87%
13%
15
24
✗
NEV −18.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@#10Penn StateUpset
22%
78%
21
20
✗
PSU −11.8
–
–
Final
#14Kansas State@Texas A&M
53%
47%
23
20
✓
KSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#25LSU
4.4%
96%
14
41
✓
LSU −27.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Louisiana Tech
49%
51%
20
61
✓
TOL −0.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UCFUpset
16%
84%
39
38
✗
UCF −15.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Louisville
1.0%
99%
3
27
✓
LOU −37.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
23%
77%
0
52
✓
MD −11.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@#15Michigan
7.8%
92%
20
27
✓
MICH −22.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
52%
48%
27
9
✓
MSU −1.4
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@#11Texas Tech
77%
23%
24
10
✓
NEB −12.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@North Texas
29%
71%
0
13
✓
UNT −8.5
–
–
Final
#21Northwestern@#22Wisconsin
38%
62%
34
30
✗
WIS −4.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
72%
28%
24
15
✓
OHIO −9.6
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Purdue
95%
5.4%
42
14
✓
OSU −26.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@BaylorUpset
13%
87%
28
24
✗
BAY −17.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
36%
64%
27
28
✓
OKST −5.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon StateUpset
78%
22%
12
26
✗
STAN −13.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
38%
62%
17
35
✓
RICE −4.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
65%
35%
48
42
✓
SDSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas@South Carolina
27%
73%
17
23
✓
SC −9.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@#20Southern Miss
4.9%
95%
0
16
✓
USM −26.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Utah
10%
90%
7
21
✓
UTAH −20.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
70%
30%
39
14
✓
USU −8.7
–
–
Final
NC State@#13Virginia
5.5%
94%
14
62
✓
UVA −25.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@#23Washington
28%
72%
21
41
✓
WASH −8.9
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
40%
60%
18
21
✓
WSU −3.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Temple
84%
16%
30
10
✓
WVU −16.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wyoming
14%
86%
21
42
✓
WYO −16.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 19 · TBD Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −6.8 68%