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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 9.7 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over UCLA15% chance · won 21-20
  • Runner-upColorado State over Air Force15% chance · won 42-41
  • Runner-upAkron over Bowling Green35% chance · won 21-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
64%
36%
13
20
✗
BC −6.3
–
–

Sat, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
Bowling Green@Akron
65%
35%
14
21
✗
BGSU −6.6
–
–
Final
#6Arizona State@Oregon State
97%
2.7%
29
14
✓
ASU −31.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#18Auburn
9.6%
90%
7
28
✓
AUB −20.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
63%
37%
39
25
✓
BALL −5.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@#19BYU
1.8%
98%
18
40
✓
BYU −33.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@California
52%
48%
55
56
✗
ARIZ −1.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Kent State
81%
19%
52
51
✓
CMU −14.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Clemson
48%
52%
3
35
✓
CLEM −0.4
–
–
Final
#8Colorado@Missouri
93%
7.3%
41
13
✓
COLO −23.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#23Air ForceUpset
15%
85%
42
41
✗
AF −16.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@East Carolina
2.6%
97%
16
34
✓
ECU −31.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@#2Florida
1.8%
98%
7
47
✓
FLA −33.4
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Georgia Tech
88%
12%
49
3
✓
FSU −19.0
–
–
Final
Boise State@Fresno State
20%
80%
7
41
✓
FRES −12.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
38%
62%
20
17
✗
TULN −4.2
–
–
Final
#24Iowa@Illinois
75%
25%
31
21
✓
IOWA −11.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
80%
20%
34
31
✓
KU −13.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Northern Illinois
87%
13%
40
14
✓
LT −18.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
14%
86%
10
13
✓
LOU −16.9
–
–
Final
#16Miami (FL)@Temple
92%
7.5%
57
26
✓
MIA −23.4
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
65%
35%
27
7
✓
M-OH −6.8
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@#11Michigan
29%
72%
29
45
✓
MICH −8.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Mississippi State
8.0%
92%
0
59
✓
MSST −22.1
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@Oklahoma
99%
0.8%
73
21
✓
NEB −38.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Nevada
3.2%
97%
14
63
✓
NEV −29.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Tulsa
44%
56%
34
23
✗
TLSA −2.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#5North Carolina
2.5%
98%
20
52
✓
UNC −31.1
–
–
Final
Navy@#10Notre Dame
13%
87%
27
54
✓
ND −17.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
70%
30%
38
0
✓
OHIO −8.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#3Ohio State
1.5%
98%
0
45
✓
OSU −34.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#13Penn State
25%
75%
9
34
✓
PSU −10.5
–
–
Final
Utah@Rice
61%
39%
10
51
✗
UTAH −5.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
94%
5.5%
49
20
✓
SDSU −26.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Southern Miss
13%
87%
17
21
✓
USM −17.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLAUpset
15%
85%
21
20
✗
UCLA −16.0
–
–
Final
#12Syracuse@West Virginia
54%
46%
30
7
✓
SYR −2.2
–
–
Final
#7Tennessee@South Carolina
77%
23%
31
14
✓
TENN −12.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#25Texas
26%
74%
23
28
✓
TEX −10.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Oklahoma State
77%
23%
38
19
✓
TA&M −12.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@TCU
8.4%
92%
34
42
✓
TCU −21.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Utah State
7.0%
93%
13
21
✓
USU −23.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Vanderbilt
33%
67%
15
31
✓
VAN −6.6
–
–
Final
#9Virginia@Duke
96%
4.0%
27
3
✓
UVA −28.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Virginia Tech
11%
89%
16
47
✓
VT −19.1
–
–
Final
#17Washington@#20USC
43%
57%
21
10
✗
USC −2.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@Wisconsin
17%
83%
25
33
✓
WIS −15.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Wyoming
20%
80%
17
59
✓
WYO −12.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 2 · TBD Lafayette at Army Army −34.9 99%
Sat, Nov 2 · TBD Illinois State at UCF UCF −24.8 94%
Sat, Nov 2 · TBD Eastern Washington at Idaho Idaho −11.9 78%