The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockClemson over Virginia5.6% chance · won 24-16
  • Runner-upMemphis over Tennessee6.2% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upPurdue over Michigan16% chance · won 9-3

Upsets

Thu, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
37%
63%
24
28
✓
SDSU −4.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
#24Alabama@LSU
42%
58%
26
0
✗
LSU −2.9
–
–
Final
California@#9Arizona State
11%
89%
7
35
✓
ASU −19.0
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
34%
66%
7
13
✓
ARK −5.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Arkansas State
70%
30%
38
55
✗
LT −8.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Army
46%
54%
7
23
✓
ARMY −1.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#18Auburn
0.3%
>99%
24
28
✓
AUB −44.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
4.2%
96%
6
50
✓
BALL −27.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#19BYU
17%
83%
0
49
✓
BYU −14.6
–
–
Final
UCF@UAB
41%
59%
35
13
✗
UAB −3.3
–
–
Final
Clemson@#12VirginiaUpset
5.6%
94%
24
16
✗
UVA −25.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7Colorado
2.8%
97%
42
49
✓
COLO −30.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno State
62%
38%
42
20
✓
CSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
24%
76%
17
20
✓
EMU −10.8
–
–
Final
#2Florida@Vanderbilt
99%
0.9%
28
21
✓
FLA −38.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#4Florida State
0.1%
>99%
7
44
✓
FSU −51.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Houston
71%
29%
49
56
✗
USM −9.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
17%
83%
19
34
✓
Idaho −14.5
–
–
Final
#16Kansas State@Kansas
56%
44%
38
12
✓
KSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Kentucky
57%
43%
21
24
✗
MSST −3.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Louisiana
4.2%
96%
31
45
✓
UL −27.3
–
–
Final
#6Tennessee@MemphisUpset
94%
6.2%
17
21
✗
TENN −25.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
28%
72%
8
24
✓
M-OH −8.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@#22Michigan State
12%
88%
15
38
✓
MSU −18.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@#1Nebraska
0.1%
>99%
7
51
✓
NEB −51.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
55%
45%
54
27
✓
NEV −2.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@#5North Carolina
7.2%
93%
10
28
✓
UNC −23.0
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
23%
77%
22
44
✓
NCSU −11.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Boise State
38%
62%
30
27
✗
BOIS −4.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#23IowaUpset
33%
67%
40
13
✗
IOWA −6.5
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@Boston College
87%
13%
48
21
✓
ND −18.4
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Illinois
97%
2.6%
48
0
✓
OSU −31.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
41%
59%
27
17
✗
OKST −3.0
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon
62%
38%
31
49
✗
ARIZ −5.5
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@PurdueUpset
84%
16%
3
9
✗
MICH −16.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
30%
70%
38
17
✗
HAW −8.1
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
60%
40%
30
0
✓
SMU −4.4
–
–
Final
#20USC@StanfordUpset
76%
24%
20
24
✗
USC −11.7
–
–
Final
#8Syracuse@Tulane
89%
11%
31
7
✓
SYR −20.2
–
–
Final
Texas@#14Texas TechUpset
26%
74%
38
32
✗
TTU −9.7
–
–
Final
#25Texas A&M@Baylor
53%
47%
24
7
✓
TA&M −1.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Tulsa
34%
66%
31
24
✗
TLSA −6.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
46%
54%
20
23
✓
TOL −0.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@UCLA
36%
64%
14
38
✓
UCLA −5.3
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
58%
42%
31
24
✓
UTAH −3.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#21Virginia Tech
30%
70%
14
35
✓
VT −7.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#15Washington
1.6%
98%
3
42
✓
WASH −34.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Rutgers
85%
15%
55
14
✓
WVU −17.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Bowling GreenUpset
20%
80%
16
13
✗
BGSU −13.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Wisconsin
18%
82%
28
45
✓
WIS −14.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 9 · TBD Delaware at Navy Navy −21.9 92%