The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1996

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 15

Wilder than 15% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 10.3 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma over Texas12% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upNavy over Air Force14% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upBoston College over Cincinnati33% chance · won 24-17

Upsets

Thu, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Southern Miss@East Carolina
45%
55%
28
7
✗
ECU −1.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
3.7%
96%
8
56
✓
SDSU −28.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
Alabama@NC State
73%
27%
24
19
✓
ALA −10.4
–
–
Final
#10Arizona State@UCLA
61%
39%
42
34
✓
ASU −5.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Arkansas
36%
64%
21
38
✓
ARK −5.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Army
10%
90%
21
42
✓
ARMY −19.8
–
–
Final
#19Auburn@Mississippi State
77%
23%
49
15
✓
AUB −12.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
22%
78%
27
30
✓
BALL −12.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Cincinnati
33%
67%
24
17
✗
CIN −6.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
5.6%
94%
24
31
✓
BGSU −25.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@BYU
0.3%
>99%
28
63
✓
BYU −43.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
12%
88%
0
42
✓
CMU −18.3
–
–
Final
Clemson@Duke
54%
46%
13
6
✓
CLEM −2.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#7Colorado
3.7%
96%
13
35
✓
COLO −28.2
–
–
Final
#21LSU@#3Florida
11%
89%
13
56
✓
FLA −19.1
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@#5Miami (FL)
44%
56%
34
16
✗
MIA −2.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
12%
88%
18
28
✓
FRES −18.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
26%
74%
20
37
✓
HOU −10.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
54%
46%
31
10
✓
IOWA −2.0
–
–
Final
#17Kansas State@Missouri
86%
14%
35
10
✓
KSU −17.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
8.5%
92%
31
42
✓
UL −21.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Tulane
57%
42%
23
20
✓
LOU −3.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
82%
18%
35
25
✓
M-OH −15.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Michigan State
17%
83%
14
42
✓
MSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Navy@#24Air ForceUpset
14%
86%
20
17
✗
AF −16.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@#1Nebraska
3.1%
97%
0
49
✓
NEB −29.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Nevada
11%
89%
28
66
✓
NEV −19.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#8North Carolina
4.1%
96%
7
38
✓
UNC −27.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#20Northwestern
16%
84%
24
26
✓
NU −15.7
–
–
Final
#16Washington@#14Notre Dame
36%
64%
20
54
✓
ND −5.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#2Ohio State
4.8%
95%
14
17
✓
OSU −26.4
–
–
Final
#23Texas@OklahomaUpset
88%
12%
27
30
✗
TEX −19.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#9Penn State
5.7%
94%
14
31
✓
PSU −25.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
66%
34%
25
14
✓
SC −6.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@#18USC
27%
73%
7
14
✓
USC −9.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
39%
61%
24
27
✓
STAN −4.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#22Syracuse
4.0%
96%
7
55
✓
SYR −27.7
–
–
Final
#6Tennessee@Georgia
70%
30%
29
17
✓
TENN −9.0
–
–
Final
#25Texas A&M@Iowa State
80%
20%
24
21
✓
TA&M −13.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@TCU
36%
64%
0
18
✓
TCU −5.4
–
–
Final
#15Texas Tech@#13Kansas
36%
64%
30
17
✗
KU −5.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Tulsa
48%
52%
14
20
✓
TLSA −0.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
76%
24%
53
21
✓
USU −11.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@North Texas
70%
30%
19
7
✓
VAN −9.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Virginia Tech
10%
90%
0
38
✓
VT −19.9
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
82%
18%
24
3
✓
WSU −15.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Wyoming
3.9%
96%
28
42
✓
WYO −27.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 12 · TBD Samford at UCF UCF −11.0 76%