The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 39 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas over Georgia18% chance · won 28-21
  • Runner-upFlorida over Michigan26% chance · won 41-15
  • Runner-upKentucky over Penn State26% chance · won 27-24

Upsets

Sat, Dec 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
TulanevsLouisiana
60%
40%
41
24
✓
TULN −4.7
–
–
Final
Utah StatevsNorth Texas
72%
28%
52
13
✓
USU −10.0
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Arizona Statevs#24Fresno State
40%
60%
20
31
✓
FRES −3.4
–
–
Final
Georgia SouthernvsEastern Michigan
51%
49%
23
21
✓
GASO −0.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsAppalachian State
27%
73%
13
45
✓
APP −9.2
–
–

Wed, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
San Diego StatevsOhio
37%
63%
0
27
✓
OHIO −4.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UABvsNorthern Illinois
49%
51%
37
13
✗
PK
–
–

Thu, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@USF
48%
52%
38
20
✗
USF −0.4
–
–

Fri, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
FIUvsToledo
39%
61%
35
32
✗
TOL −4.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Western MichiganvsBYU
29%
71%
18
49
✓
BYU −8.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
MemphisvsWake Forest
57%
43%
34
37
✗
MEM −3.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
HoustonvsArmy
49%
51%
14
70
✓
ARMY −0.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
HawaiivsLouisiana Tech
40%
60%
14
31
✓
LT −3.5
–
–

Sun, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BuffalovsTroy
54%
46%
32
42
✗
BUF −2.3
–
–

Wed, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
MinnesotavsGeorgia Tech
42%
58%
34
10
✗
GT −2.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
CaliforniavsTCU
43%
57%
7
10
✓
TCU −2.4
–
–

Thu, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
TemplevsDuke
48%
52%
27
56
✓
DUKE −0.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)vs#25Wisconsin
48%
52%
3
35
✓
WIS −0.4
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
BaylorvsVanderbilt
33%
67%
45
38
✗
VAN −6.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Purduevs#16Auburn
37%
63%
14
63
✓
AUB −4.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#15West VirginiavsSyracuseUpset
63%
37%
18
34
✗
WVU −5.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Iowa Statevs#20Washington State
38%
62%
26
28
✓
WSU −4.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#17Floridavs#4Michigan
26%
74%
41
15
✗
MICH −10.0
–
–
Final
South CarolinavsVirginia
65%
35%
0
28
✗
SC −6.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas StatevsNevada
53%
47%
13
16
✗
ARST −1.8
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#6Notre Damevs#2Clemson
30%
70%
3
30
✓
CLEM −7.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#7Oklahomavs#1Alabama
19%
81%
34
45
✓
ALA −13.4
–
–

Mon, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
CincinnativsVirginia Tech
60%
40%
35
31
✓
CIN −4.4
–
–
Final
#21StanfordvsPittsburgh
67%
33%
14
13
✓
STAN −7.5
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Michigan StatevsOregon
54%
46%
6
7
✗
MSU −1.9
–
–
Final
#13MissourivsOklahoma StateUpset
67%
33%
33
38
✗
MIZ −7.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23NC Statevs#18Texas A&M
46%
54%
13
52
✓
TA&M −1.0
–
–

Tue, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#9Mississippi Statevs#14Iowa
55%
45%
22
27
✗
MSST −2.4
–
–
Final
#12LSUvs#10UCF
47%
53%
40
32
✗
UCF −0.5
–
–
Final
Kentuckyvs#8Penn StateUpset
26%
74%
27
24
✗
PSU −9.9
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#11Washingtonvs#5Ohio State
32%
68%
23
28
✓
OSU −7.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#19Texasvs#3GeorgiaUpset
18%
82%
28
21
✗
UGA −14.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwesternvs#22UtahUpset
37%
63%
31
20
✗
UTAH −4.7
–
–

Mon, Jan 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Clemsonvs#1Alabama
37%
63%
44
16
✗
ALA −4.8
–
–