The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 94

Wilder than 94% of weeks in the archive.

25 upsets against 17.0 expected

  • Biggest shockOregon State over Colorado5.7% chance · won 41-34
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Washington16% chance · won 12-10
  • Runner-upKansas over TCU19% chance · won 27-26

Upsets

Wed, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Troy@South Alabama
72%
28%
38
17
✓
TROY −9.9
–
–

Thu, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final
Baylor@#23West Virginia
21%
79%
14
58
✓
WVU −12.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Ohio
27%
73%
14
52
✓
OHIO −9.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
36%
64%
51
24
✗
WMU −5.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech
34%
66%
49
28
✗
VT −6.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia SouthernUpset
78%
22%
14
34
✗
APP −12.8
–
–

Fri, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Florida Atlantic
42%
58%
21
13
✗
FAU −2.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22Miami (FL)@Boston CollegeUpset
52%
48%
14
27
✗
MIA −1.4
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
48%
52%
34
21
✗
CSU −0.1
–
–
Final
Utah@UCLA
68%
32%
41
10
✓
UTAH −7.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Arkansas
58%
42%
45
31
✓
VAN −3.6
–
–
Final
#17Purdue@Michigan StateUpset
51%
49%
13
23
✗
PUR −1.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
36%
64%
31
40
✓
ISU −5.4
–
–
Final
#2Clemson@Florida State
87%
13%
59
10
✓
CLEM −18.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Louisville
49%
51%
56
35
✗
WAKE −0.2
–
–
Final
#11Wisconsin@NorthwesternUpset
69%
31%
17
31
✗
WIS −8.3
–
–
Final
UMass@UConn
57%
42%
22
17
✓
MASS −3.5
–
–
Final
Army@Eastern Michigan
67%
33%
37
22
✓
ARMY −7.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Akron
37%
63%
10
17
✓
AKR −4.9
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia
22%
78%
21
31
✓
UVA −11.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Charlotte
62%
38%
17
20
✗
USM −5.4
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia State
45%
55%
37
34
✗
GAST −1.4
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Oregon State@ColoradoUpset
5.7%
94%
41
34
✗
COLO −24.9
–
–
Final
TCU@KansasUpset
81%
19%
26
27
✗
TCU −14.5
–
–
Final
#14Floridavs#4Georgia
27%
73%
17
36
✓
UGA −9.2
–
–
Final
Arizona State@USC
41%
59%
38
35
✗
USC −3.2
–
–
Final
Illinois@Maryland
15%
85%
33
63
✓
MD −16.2
–
–
Final
#12Iowa@#7Penn State
30%
70%
24
30
✓
PSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#5Oklahoma
4.9%
95%
14
51
✓
OU −26.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Pittsburgh
66%
34%
45
54
✗
DUKE −6.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Old Dominion
66%
34%
51
17
✓
MTSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@BYU
31%
68%
7
6
✗
BYU −7.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@SMU
69%
31%
26
20
✓
CIN −8.3
–
–
Final
USF@Houston
31%
70%
36
57
✓
HOU −7.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Missouri
42%
58%
15
14
✗
MIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
Rice@North Texas
3.0%
97%
17
41
✓
UNT −29.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Utah State
14%
86%
19
61
✓
USU −16.8
–
–
Final
#10Washington@CaliforniaUpset
84%
16%
10
12
✗
WASH −16.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
65%
35%
37
50
✗
UNLV −6.8
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#19Texas A&M@#18Mississippi State
41%
59%
13
28
✓
MSST −3.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#20StanfordUpset
36%
64%
41
38
✗
STAN −5.4
–
–
Final
#21NC State@SyracuseUpset
58%
42%
41
51
✗
NCSU −3.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Texas State
42%
58%
20
27
✓
TXST −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
55%
45%
24
17
✓
TULN −2.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana
55%
44%
43
47
✗
ARST −2.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@Air Force
65%
35%
48
38
✓
BOIS −6.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#25South Carolina
23%
77%
24
27
✓
SC −11.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Western Kentucky
74%
26%
38
17
✓
FIU −10.6
–
–
Final
UAB@UTEP
92%
7.7%
19
0
✓
UAB −23.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Oregon@Arizona
65%
35%
15
44
✗
ORE −6.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#24Fresno State
5.0%
95%
20
50
✓
FRES −26.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Nevada
61%
39%
24
28
✗
SDSU −4.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Indiana@Minnesota
45%
55%
31
38
✓
MINN −1.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#8Notre DamevsNavy
95%
4.8%
44
22
✓
ND −27.1
–
–
Final
#15Texas@Oklahoma StateUpset
59%
41%
35
38
✗
TEX −4.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 27 · 12:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Nebraska Nebraska −39.2 99%