Week 7 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Wed, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Appalachian State@Arkansas State

75%
25%

35
9

✓

APP −11.0

–

–

Thu, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Texas Tech@TCU

33%
67%

17
14

✗

TCU −7.5

–

–

Final

Georgia Southern@Texas State

88%
12%

15
13

✓

GASO −19.5

–

–

Fri, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

USF@Tulsa

74%
26%

25
24

✓

USF −10.6

–

–

Final

Air Force@San Diego State

38%
62%

17
21

✓

SDSU −5.2

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Arizona@Utah

30%
70%

10
42

✓

UTAH −8.9

–

–

Sat, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final

Tennessee@#11AuburnUpset

13%
87%

30
24

✗

AUB −18.7

–

–

Final

#15Florida@Vanderbilt

73%
27%

37
27

✓

FLA −9.9

–

–

Final

Rutgers@Maryland

7.8%
92%

7
34

✓

MD −23.6

–

–

Final

#17Iowa@Indiana

71%
29%

42
16

✓

IOWA −9.0

–

–

Final

#24Oklahoma State@Kansas StateUpset

75%
25%

12
31

✗

OKST −11.0

–

–

Final

Minnesota@#2Ohio State

4.8%
95%

14
30

✓

OSU −27.7

–

–

Final

Nebraska@Northwestern

22%
78%

31
34

✓

NU −12.8

–

–

Final

Akron@Buffalo

26%
74%

6
24

✓

BUF −10.8

–

–

Final

Toledo@Eastern Michigan

52%
48%

26
28

✗

TOL −0.9

–

–

Final

Duke@Georgia Tech

56%
44%

28
14

✓

DUKE −2.4

–

–

Final

Louisville@Boston College

19%
81%

20
38

✓

BC −14.5

–

–

Final

UAB@Rice

84%
16%

42
0

✓

UAB −16.5

–

–

Final

Troy@Liberty

55%
45%

16
22

✗

TROY −2.1

–

–

Final

Southern Miss@North Texas

27%
73%

7
30

✓

UNT −10.4

–

–

Final

Pittsburgh@#8Notre Dame

6.2%
94%

14
19

✓

ND −25.7

–

–

Final

Kent State@Miami (OH)

29%
71%

6
31

✓

M-OH −9.2

–

–

Afternoon 18 games

Final

Ball State@Central Michigan

54%
46%

24
23

✓

BALL −1.7

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Bowling Green

83%
17%

42
35

✓

WMU −16.0

–

–

Final

#3Georgia@#12LSU

71%
29%

16
36

✗

UGA −9.1

–

–

Final

#23Texas A&M@#21South Carolina

44%
56%

26
23

✗

SC −2.8

–

–

Final

#9Washington@OregonUpset

70%
30%

27
30

✗

WASH −8.4

–

–

Final

Purdue@Illinois

70%
30%

46
7

✓

PUR −8.7

–

–

Final

Michigan State@#4Penn StateUpset

12%
88%

21
17

✗

PSU −19.4

–

–

Final

Baylor@#14Texas

15%
85%

17
23

✓

TEX −17.0

–

–

Final

ArmyvsSan Jose State

96%
4.3%

52
3

✓

ARMY −28.4

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@Charlotte

60%
40%

14
40

✗

WKU −4.2

–

–

Final

Marshall@Old Dominion

63%
37%

42
20

✓

MRSH −5.5

–

–

Final

#13UCF@Memphis

75%
25%

31
30

✓

UCF −11.2

–

–

Final

Temple@Navy

58%
42%

24
17

✓

TEM −3.4

–

–

Final

Ohio@Northern Illinois

40%
60%

21
24

✓

NIU −4.2

–

–

Final

New Mexico@Colorado State

63%
37%

18
20

✗

UNM −5.3

–

–

Final

UNLV@Utah State

14%
86%

28
59

✓

USU −18.2

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@Louisiana

27%
73%

38
66

✓

UL −10.5

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Coastal Carolina

28%
72%

45
20

✗

CCU −10.0

–

–

Prime time 10 games

Final

Missouri@#1Alabama

5.0%
95%

10
39

✓

ALA −27.4

–

–

Final

UCLA@California

42%
58%

37
7

✗

CAL −3.7

–

–

Final

#19West Virginia@Iowa StateUpset

58%
42%

14
30

✗

WVU −3.3

–

–

Final

#20Miami (FL)@VirginiaUpset

69%
31%

13
16

✗

MIA −8.2

–

–

Final

Virginia Tech@North Carolina

78%
22%

22
19

✓

VT −13.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@UTSA

70%
30%

31
3

✓

LT −8.6

–

–

Final

Houston@East Carolina

85%
15%

42
20

✓

HOU −17.0

–

–

Final

Ole Miss@Arkansas

72%
28%

37
33

✓

MISS −9.4

–

–

Final

#10Wisconsin@#7Michigan

34%
66%

13
38

✓

MICH −7.1

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@FIU

39%
61%

21
24

✓

FIU −4.8

–

–

Late night 4 games

Final

Hawaii@BYU

28%
72%

23
49

✓

BYU −9.7

–

–

Final

Colorado@USC

40%
60%

20
31

✓

USC −4.2

–

–

Final

Boise State@Nevada

81%
19%

31
27

✓

BOIS −14.6

–

–

Final

Wyoming@Fresno State

7.9%
92%

3
27

✓

FRES −23.5

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 13 · 5:00 PM ET	Alabama State at South Alabama	South Alabama −15.2	82%