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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 38

Wilder than 38% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockOld Dominion over Virginia Tech2.9% chance · won 49-35
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Oklahoma State10% chance · won 41-17
  • Runner-upIllinois State over Colorado State22% chance · won 35-19

Upsets

Thu, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulsa@Temple
34%
66%
17
31
✓
TEM −6.8
–
–

Fri, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@#21UCF
15%
85%
36
56
✓
UCF −17.4
–
–
Final
#4Penn State@Illinois
96%
4.5%
63
24
✓
PSU −28.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington State@USC
35%
65%
36
39
✓
USC −6.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Kent State@Ole Miss
9.3%
91%
17
38
✓
MISS −22.0
–
–
Final
#3Georgia@Missouri
84%
16%
43
29
✓
UGA −16.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Rutgers
56%
44%
42
13
✓
BUF −2.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Maryland
53%
47%
13
42
✗
MINN −1.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#8Michigan
7.5%
92%
10
56
✓
MICH −24.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Iowa State
12%
88%
13
26
✓
ISU −19.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Purdue
61%
39%
13
30
✗
BC −4.7
–
–
Final
#11Notre Dame@Wake Forest
81%
19%
56
27
✓
ND −14.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Cincinnati
23%
77%
30
34
✓
CIN −12.5
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
65%
35%
30
31
✗
NAVY −6.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@Toledo
38%
62%
44
63
✓
TOL −5.4
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@North Carolina
51%
49%
35
38
✗
PITT −0.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@Virginia
47%
53%
3
27
✓
UVA −1.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Georgia State
69%
31%
34
15
✓
WMU −8.1
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Ball State
32%
68%
28
20
✗
BALL −7.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
61%
39%
38
23
✓
M-OH −4.4
–
–
Final
#23Texas A&M@#1Alabama
5.3%
95%
23
45
✓
ALA −26.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Baylor
33%
67%
7
26
✓
BAY −7.5
–
–
Final
Kansas State@West Virginia
19%
81%
6
35
✓
WVU −14.5
–
–
Final
#6Clemson@Georgia Tech
84%
16%
49
21
✓
CLEM −16.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Florida State
24%
76%
19
37
✓
FSU −12.0
–
–
Final
FIU@Miami (FL)
12%
88%
17
31
✓
MIA −19.3
–
–
Final
#17Virginia Tech@Old DominionUpset
97%
2.9%
35
49
✗
VT −31.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@#2Ohio State
1.1%
99%
6
49
✓
OSU −37.8
–
–
Final
Charlotte@UMass
42%
58%
31
49
✓
MASS −3.3
–
–
Final
#22South Carolina@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
37
14
✓
SC −0.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Oregon State
62%
38%
35
14
✓
ARIZ −5.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Syracuse
4.1%
96%
21
51
✓
SYR −29.0
–
–
Final
#24TCU@#18Texas
39%
61%
16
31
✓
TEX −4.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Liberty
53%
47%
47
7
✓
UNT −1.1
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
#14Mississippi State@KentuckyUpset
73%
27%
7
28
✗
MSST −10.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#15LSU
8.9%
91%
21
38
✓
LSU −22.4
–
–
Final
Florida@Tennessee
60%
40%
47
21
✓
FLA −4.2
–
–
Final
Army@#5Oklahoma
7.5%
92%
21
28
✓
OU −24.0
–
–
Final
#20NC State@Marshall
85%
15%
37
20
✓
NCSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#10Oklahoma StateUpset
10%
90%
41
17
✗
OKST −21.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Southern Miss
23%
77%
22
40
✓
USM −12.5
–
–
Final
Texas State@UTSA
32%
68%
21
25
✓
UTSA −8.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Arkansas State
36%
64%
20
27
✓
ARST −5.8
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Louisiana
52%
48%
30
28
✓
CCU −0.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-Monroe
68%
32%
35
27
✓
TROY −7.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#7Auburn
4.2%
96%
3
34
✓
AUB −28.7
–
–
Final
#25Michigan State@Indiana
61%
39%
35
21
✓
MSU −4.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
58%
42%
27
20
✓
NMSU −3.2
–
–
Final
#13Wisconsin@#19Iowa
53%
47%
28
17
✓
WIS −1.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona State@#9Washington
25%
75%
20
27
✓
WASH −11.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@San Diego State
24%
76%
20
23
✓
SDSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Utah State
37%
63%
32
42
✓
USU −5.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#12Stanford@Oregon
68%
32%
38
31
✓
STAN −7.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@USF
13%
87%
13
20
✓
USF −18.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Memphis
9.6%
90%
35
52
✓
MEM −21.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET North Carolina Central at #16 Duke Duke −53.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 6:00 PM ET McNeese at BYU BYU −28.1 95%
Sun, Sep 23 · TBD Texas Southern at Houston Houston −35.8 98%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:00 PM ET Maine at Central Michigan Central Michigan −22.5 91%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Appalachian State Appalachian State −45.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:00 PM ET Illinois State at Colorado State Colorado State −13.0 78%
Sat, Sep 22 · 11:59 PM ET Duquesne at Hawaii Hawaii −30.4 97%