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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana Tech over North Texas25% chance · won 29-27
  • Runner-upTulane over Memphis26% chance · won 40-24
  • Runner-upNevada over Air Force31% chance · won 28-25

Upsets

Fri, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@Colorado
31%
69%
16
38
✓
COLO −8.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Miami (FL)
18%
82%
10
47
✓
MIA −15.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Louisiana@#1Alabama
<0.1%
>99%
14
56
✓
ALA −55.5
–
–
Final
Arkansasvs#22Texas A&M
14%
86%
17
24
✓
TA&M −18.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Rutgers
81%
19%
24
17
✓
IU −14.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#19Michigan State
2.9%
97%
20
31
✓
MSU −31.4
–
–
Final
#18Oklahoma State@Kansas
85%
15%
48
28
✓
OKST −17.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Boston College
27%
73%
35
45
✓
BC −10.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#6Clemson
13%
87%
23
27
✓
CLEM −18.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Georgia Tech
7.8%
92%
17
63
✓
GT −23.6
–
–
Final
#17West Virginia@Texas Tech
62%
38%
42
34
✓
WVU −5.1
–
–
Final
Army@Buffalo
57%
43%
42
13
✓
ARMY −2.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#20NC State
23%
77%
21
35
✓
NCSU −12.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Ohio
30%
70%
42
58
✓
OHIO −8.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia State
47%
53%
14
46
✓
GAST −1.2
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Kent State@Ball State
45%
55%
24
52
✓
BALL −2.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#4Georgia
4.3%
96%
12
38
✓
UGA −28.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@#7Oklahoma
9.3%
91%
33
66
✓
OU −22.0
–
–
Final
#13Texas@Kansas State
86%
14%
19
14
✓
TEX −18.0
–
–
Final
Florida State@Louisville
58%
42%
28
24
✓
FSU −3.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#16UCF
16%
84%
14
45
✓
UCF −16.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Wake Forest
8.6%
91%
24
56
✓
WAKE −22.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Nebraska
66%
34%
42
28
✓
PUR −6.7
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@East Carolina
37%
63%
35
37
✓
ECU −5.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UConn
86%
14%
49
7
✓
CIN −18.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Miami (OH)
65%
35%
40
39
✓
WMU −6.1
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Appalachian State
8.6%
91%
7
52
✓
APP −22.7
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Troy
33%
67%
21
45
✓
TROY −7.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#8Auburn
2.4%
98%
13
24
✓
AUB −32.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@Air Force
31%
69%
28
25
✗
AF −8.4
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@Northwestern
85%
15%
20
17
✓
MICH −17.3
–
–
Final
#23Florida@#24Mississippi State
45%
55%
13
6
✗
MSST −2.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington State
37%
63%
24
28
✓
WSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Liberty@New Mexico
51%
49%
52
43
✓
LIB −0.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
41%
59%
26
23
✗
EMU −4.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia Southern
60%
40%
21
28
✗
ARST −3.9
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Iowa State@TCU
36%
64%
14
17
✓
TCU −6.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#21DukeUpset
33%
67%
31
14
✗
DUKE −7.4
–
–
Final
Charlotte@UAB
25%
75%
7
28
✓
UAB −11.5
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
60%
40%
24
25
✗
FAU −4.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@UTSA
17%
83%
21
30
✓
UTSA −15.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Wyoming
87%
13%
34
14
✓
BOIS −18.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
79%
21%
44
41
✓
HAW −13.3
–
–
Final
#15South Carolina@KentuckyUpset
62%
38%
10
24
✗
SC −4.8
–
–
Final
#12Stanford@#9Notre Dame
39%
61%
17
38
✓
ND −4.7
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#3Penn State
50%
50%
27
26
✗
PSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@North TexasUpset
25%
75%
29
27
✗
UNT −11.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Western Kentucky
65%
35%
20
17
✓
MRSH −6.3
–
–
Final
BYU@#10Washington
15%
85%
7
35
✓
WASH −17.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#14LSU
27%
73%
16
45
✓
LSU −10.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
7.3%
93%
24
52
✓
ASU −24.2
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona
70%
30%
24
20
✓
USC −8.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@California
54%
46%
42
24
✓
ORE −1.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Fresno State
25%
75%
27
49
✓
FRES −11.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Memphis@Tulane
74%
26%
24
40
✗
MEM −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · 4:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −32.0 97%
Sat, Sep 29 · 7:30 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at FIU FIU −27.1 95%
Sat, Sep 29 · 7:00 PM ET Houston Christian at SMU SMU −25.8 94%