Week 1 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 88 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 14.0 expected

Biggest shockVillanova over Temple4.1% chance · won 19-17
Runner-upNicholls over Kansas5.7% chance · won 26-23
Runner-upNorthern Arizona over UTEP10% chance · won 30-10

Upsets

Hawaii 43, Colorado State 34Hawaii won; the model gave them 22% before kickoff
Texas 29, Maryland 34#16 Texas lost to unranked Maryland
Cincinnati 26, UCLA 17Cincinnati won; the model gave them 21% before kickoff
Navy 41, Hawaii 59Hawaii won; the model gave them 20% before kickoff

Sat, Aug 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Hawaii@

Colorado StateUpset

22%
78%

43
34

✗

CSU −11.4

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Wyoming@

New Mexico State

61%
39%

29
7

✓

WYO −4.7

–

Thu, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

New Mexico State@

Minnesota

12%
88%

10
48

✓

MINN −18.0

–

Final

#23UCF@

UConn

86%
14%

56
17

✓

UCF −17.2

–

Fri, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Syracuse@

Western Michigan

47%
53%

55
42

✗

WMU −0.7

–

Prime time 5 games

Final

Utah State@

#20Michigan State

12%
88%

31
38

✓

MSU −18.0

–

Final

Army@

Duke

26%
74%

14
34

✓

DUKE −9.7

–

Final

Western Kentucky@

#10Wisconsin

2.4%
98%

3
34

✓

WIS −30.7

–

Final

San Diego State@

#12Stanford

11%
89%

10
31

✓

STAN −18.2

–

Final

Coloradovs

Colorado State

64%
36%

45
13

✓

COLO −6.0

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Wake Forest@

Tulane

56%
44%

23
17

✓

WAKE −3.0

–

Final

Northwestern@

Purdue

48%
52%

31
27

✗

PUR −0.1

–

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

Ole Missvs

Texas Tech

65%
35%

47
27

✓

MISS −6.6

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@

#18South Carolina

2.5%
98%

15
49

✓

SC −30.3

–

Final

Oregon State@

#2Ohio State

2.0%
98%

31
77

✓

OSU −31.9

–

Final

Kent State@

Illinois

22%
78%

24
31

✓

ILL −11.3

–

Final

Texas State@

Rutgers

12%
88%

7
35

✓

RUTG −17.4

–

Final

#16Texasvs

MarylandUpset

72%
28%

29
34

✗

TEX −9.2

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@

#9Oklahoma

13%
87%

14
63

✓

OU −17.3

–

Final

Houston@

Rice

76%
24%

45
27

✓

HOU −11.3

–

Final

UMass@

Boston College

13%
87%

21
55

✓

BC −17.1

–

Afternoon 11 games

Final

#7Washingtonvs

#5Auburn

44%
56%

16
21

✓

AUB −1.7

–

Final

Central Michigan@

Kentucky

17%
83%

20
35

✓

UK −14.0

–

Final

West Virginiavs

Tennessee

48%
52%

40
14

✗

TENN −0.1

–

Final

Washington State@

Wyoming

65%
35%

41
19

✓

WSU −6.3

–

Final

Appalachian State@

#6Penn State

9.3%
91%

38
45

✓

PSU −20.1

–

Final

Northern Illinois@

#22Iowa

15%
86%

7
33

✓

IOWA −15.9

–

Final

UNLV@

#13USC

6.6%
93%

21
43

✓

USC −23.0

–

Final

North Carolina@

California

41%
59%

17
24

✓

CAL −3.0

–

Final

Old Dominion@

Liberty

23%
77%

10
52

✓

LIB −11.0

–

Final

Marshall@

Miami (OH)

45%
55%

35
28

✗

M-OH −1.4

–

Final

Boise State@

Troy

60%
40%

56
20

✓

BOIS −4.6

–

Prime time 6 games

Final

Cincinnati@

UCLAUpset

21%
78%

26
17

✗

UCLA −11.7

–

Final

Indiana@

FIU

64%
36%

38
28

✓

IU −6.2

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@

South Alabama

60%
40%

30
26

✓

LT −4.5

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@

Vanderbilt

27%
73%

7
35

✓

VAN −8.8

–

Final

#11Michigan@

#8Notre Dame

38%
62%

17
24

✓

ND −4.2

–

Final

SMU@

North Texas

53%
46%

23
46

✗

SMU −1.9

–

Late night 3 games

Final

UTSA@

Arizona State

7.9%
92%

7
49

✓

ASU −21.6

–

Final

BYU@

Arizona

30%
70%

28
23

✗

ARIZ −7.8

–

Final

Navy@

HawaiiUpset

80%
20%

41
59

✗

NAVY −13.4

–

Sun, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

#19Miami (FL)vs

#17LSU

46%
54%

17
33

✓

LSU −1.1

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Louisvillevs

#1Alabama

11%
89%

14
51

✓

ALA −18.7

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Oregon

8.3%
92%

24
58

✓

ORE −21.1

–

Tue, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#21Virginia Tech@

#14Florida State

34%
66%

24
3

✗

FSU −5.8

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 1 · 4:00 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at Arkansas	Arkansas −35.9	99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET	Charleston Southern at Florida	Florida −43.0	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:30 PM ET	Austin Peay at #3 Georgia	Georgia −56.6	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at #15 Mississippi State	Mississippi State −52.7	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 4:00 PM ET	UT Martin at Missouri	Missouri −39.6	99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 8:30 PM ET	Northwestern State at Texas A&M	Texas A&M −45.7	>99%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD	Weber State at Utah	Utah −40.6	>99%
Sun, Sep 2 · TBD	Abilene Christian at Baylor	Baylor −37.9	99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Kansas	Kansas −24.2	94%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	South Dakota at Kansas State	Kansas State −37.1	99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:00 PM ET	Southern at #24 TCU	TCU −50.6	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:20 PM ET	Furman at #4 Clemson	Clemson −52.7	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:30 PM ET	Alcorn State at Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech −42.9	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:00 PM ET	James Madison at #25 NC State	NC State −14.6	83%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:30 PM ET	UAlbany at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −36.2	99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	Richmond at Virginia	Virginia −23.0	93%
Sat, Aug 25 · 5:30 PM ET	Duquesne at UMass	UMass −16.4	86%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD	Missouri State at Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State −21.9	92%
Sat, Aug 25 · 7:00 PM ET	Prairie View A&M at Rice	Rice −11.0	77%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	Fordham at Charlotte	Charlotte −23.8	94%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Jackson State at Southern Miss	Southern Miss −29.3	97%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD	Savannah State vs UAB	UAB −33.3	98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET	Northern Arizona at UTEP	UTEP −19.2	90%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	Elon at USF	USF −47.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:00 PM ET	Villanova at Temple	Temple −26.7	96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Mercer at Memphis	Memphis −24.7	95%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Tulsa	Tulsa −24.7	95%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Connecticut at Ball State	Ball State −17.7	88%
Fri, Aug 31 · 6:30 PM ET	Monmouth at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan −15.2	84%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	Delaware State at Buffalo	Buffalo −31.5	98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 2:00 PM ET	Howard at Ohio	Ohio −32.5	98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	VMI at Toledo	Toledo −42.2	>99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET	Kennesaw State at Georgia State	Georgia State −9.5	74%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State	Arkansas State −36.0	99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET	South Carolina State at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern −12.3	80%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET	Grambling at Louisiana	Louisiana −28.5	97%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD	SE Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe	Louisiana-Monroe −26.8	96%
Thu, Aug 30 · 10:00 PM ET	UC Davis at San Jose State	San Jose State −16.9	87%
Sat, Sep 1 · 2:00 PM ET	Stony Brook at Air Force	Air Force −25.3	95%
Sun, Sep 2 · TBD	Incarnate Word at New Mexico	New Mexico −31.2	98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 10:00 PM ET	Idaho at Fresno State	Fresno State −21.8	92%
Fri, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET	Portland State at Nevada	Nevada −22.4	93%
Sun, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	North Carolina A&T at East Carolina	East Carolina −17.6	88%