The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 40

Wilder than 40% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 16.6 expected

  • Biggest shockCharlotte over Florida Atlantic15% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upWestern Kentucky over Louisiana Tech17% chance · won 30-15
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Wisconsin18% chance · won 37-15

Upsets

Wed, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
20%
80%
21
42
✓
M-OH −13.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
55%
45%
21
28
✗
NIU −2.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
14%
86%
19
27
✓
AF −16.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#11Mississippi State@Ole Miss
72%
28%
35
3
✓
MSST −9.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Nebraska@#10Iowa
15%
85%
28
31
✓
IOWA −16.2
–
–
Final
#17Texas@Kansas
88%
12%
24
17
✓
TEX −19.0
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
46%
54%
31
52
✓
MEM −1.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
10%
90%
28
49
✓
OHIO −19.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
82%
18%
44
14
✓
BUF −14.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
12%
88%
13
51
✓
TOL −18.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
76%
24%
28
20
✓
EMU −11.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#16Missouri
8.1%
92%
0
38
✓
MIZ −22.0
–
–

Afternoon 5 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@South Alabama
52%
48%
28
31
✗
CCU −1.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
53%
47%
31
34
✗
UVA −1.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Cincinnati
8.6%
91%
6
56
✓
CIN −21.4
–
–
Final
Oregon@Oregon State
85%
15%
55
15
✓
ORE −17.1
–
–
Final
#12UCF@USF
87%
13%
38
10
✓
UCF −18.7
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#6Oklahoma@#15West Virginia
58%
42%
59
56
✓
OU −3.8
–
–
Final
#14Washington@#18Washington State
48%
52%
28
15
✗
WSU −0.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#22Florida@Florida State
69%
31%
41
14
✓
FLA −8.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#3Georgia
8.5%
92%
21
45
✓
UGA −21.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
62%
38%
28
21
✓
PUR −5.5
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@#7Ohio State
55%
45%
39
62
✗
MICH −2.5
–
–
Final
BaylorvsTexas Tech
34%
66%
35
24
✗
TTU −6.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
40%
60%
42
21
✗
BC −3.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@FIU
48%
52%
28
25
✗
FIU −0.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana TechUpset
17%
83%
30
15
✗
LT −14.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
37%
63%
28
29
✓
TULN −4.6
–
–
Final
#25NC State@North Carolina
80%
20%
34
28
✓
NCSU −13.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@DukeUpset
21%
79%
59
7
✗
DUKE −12.4
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Rice
67%
33%
13
27
✗
ODU −7.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Liberty
17%
84%
21
28
✓
LIB −15.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia State
74%
26%
35
14
✓
GASO −10.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Appalachian State
21%
79%
10
21
✓
APP −12.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
55%
45%
31
3
✓
WYO −2.6
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#23Stanford@UCLA
74%
26%
49
42
✓
STAN −10.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Middle Tennessee
48%
52%
3
27
✓
MTSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTEP
84%
16%
39
7
✓
USM −16.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
53%
47%
31
28
✓
UL −1.7
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@#1Alabama
9.0%
91%
21
52
✓
ALA −21.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Arizona
63%
37%
41
40
✓
ASU −5.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
8.4%
92%
16
24
✓
NU −21.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#8Penn State
17%
83%
3
38
✓
PSU −15.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Miami (FL)
35%
65%
3
24
✓
MIA −5.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#19WisconsinUpset
18%
82%
37
15
✗
WIS −14.2
–
–
Final
Temple@UConn
95%
5.3%
57
7
✓
TEM −26.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
56%
44%
24
27
✗
SMU −2.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
37%
63%
13
38
✓
VAN −4.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Michigan State
5.0%
95%
10
14
✓
MSU −25.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas State
81%
19%
33
7
✓
ARST −14.7
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Florida AtlanticUpset
15%
85%
27
24
✗
FAU −16.3
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
#9LSU@#21Texas A&M
52%
48%
72
74
✗
LSU −1.3
–
–
Final
#5Notre Dame@USC
79%
21%
24
17
✓
ND −13.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@TCU
56%
44%
24
31
✗
OKST −2.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
69%
31%
29
34
✗
NEV −8.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
BYU@#20Utah
18%
82%
27
35
✓
UTAH −14.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
40%
60%
24
33
✓
BOIS −3.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Diego StateUpset
18%
82%
31
30
✗
SDSU −14.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
85%
15%
56
10
✓
UK −17.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#2Clemson
8.4%
92%
35
56
✓
CLEM −21.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@California
38%
62%
21
33
✓
CAL −4.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
22%
78%
38
42
✓
ISU −11.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTSA
88%
12%
24
21
✓
UNT −19.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#24Fresno State
1.2%
99%
13
31
✓
FRES −35.8
–
–