Week 11 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Tue, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Kent State@Buffalo

11%
89%

14
48

✓

BUF −18.9

–

–

Wed, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Toledo@Northern Illinois

50%
50%

15
38

✓

TOL −0.4

–

–

Thu, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Wake Forest@#24NC StateUpset

14%
86%

27
23

✗

NCSU −16.5

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Ohio@Miami (OH)

57%
43%

28
30

✗

OHIO −3.4

–

–

Fri, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final

#21Fresno State@Boise StateUpset

58%
42%

17
24

✗

FRES −3.6

–

–

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final

South Carolina@#22Florida

40%
60%

31
35

✓

FLA −3.6

–

–

Final

Vanderbilt@#20Missouri

22%
78%

28
33

✓

MIZ −11.9

–

–

Final

Ole Miss@#23Texas A&M

29%
72%

24
38

✓

TA&M −8.6

–

–

Final

Illinois@Nebraska

23%
77%

35
54

✓

NEB −11.3

–

–

Final

Maryland@Indiana

56%
44%

32
34

✗

MD −3.1

–

–

Final

#6Ohio State@#16Michigan State

62%
38%

26
6

✓

OSU −5.3

–

–

Final

Kansas@Kansas State

24%
76%

17
21

✓

KSU −10.8

–

–

Final

TCU@#15West Virginia

24%
76%

10
47

✓

WVU −10.8

–

–

Final

#19Wisconsin@#8Penn State

28%
72%

10
22

✓

PSU −8.9

–

–

Final

BYU@UMass

80%
20%

35
16

✓

BYU −13.6

–

–

Final

Navy@#14UCF

4.9%
95%

24
35

✓

UCF −26.2

–

–

Final

SMU@UConn

85%
15%

62
50

✓

SMU −16.9

–

–

Final

Tulsa@Memphis

18%
82%

21
47

✓

MEM −14.2

–

–

Final

Akron@Eastern Michigan

25%
75%

7
27

✓

EMU −10.4

–

–

Final

North Carolina@Duke

16%
84%

35
42

✓

DUKE −15.7

–

–

Final

Troy@Georgia Southern

48%
52%

35
21

✗

GASO −0.5

–

–

Final

UCLA@Arizona State

18%
82%

28
31

✓

ASU −14.5

–

–

Final

Charlotte@Marshall

18%
82%

13
30

✓

MRSH −14.1

–

–

Afternoon 22 games

Final

Liberty@Virginia

13%
87%

24
45

✓

UVA −17.2

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@UTEP

89%
11%

48
32

✓

MTSU −19.9

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@Central Michigan

28%
72%

24
13

✗

CMU −8.7

–

–

Final

#11Mississippi State@#1Alabama

7.0%
93%

0
24

✓

ALA −23.2

–

–

Final

Kentucky@Tennessee

62%
38%

7
24

✗

UK −5.3

–

–

Final

Washington State@Colorado

61%
39%

31
7

✓

WSU −4.8

–

–

Final

#3Michigan@Rutgers

99%
0.8%

42
7

✓

MICH −38.7

–

–

Final

Northwestern@#12IowaUpset

26%
74%

14
10

✗

IOWA −9.8

–

–

Final

Baylor@Iowa State

18%
82%

14
28

✓

ISU −13.9

–

–

Final

Oklahoma State@#5Oklahoma

12%
88%

47
48

✓

OU −18.7

–

–

Final

Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh

46%
54%

22
52

✓

PITT −1.2

–

–

Final

#18Purdue@MinnesotaUpset

78%
22%

10
41

✗

PUR −12.7

–

–

Final

North Texas@Old DominionUpset

86%
14%

31
34

✗

UNT −17.8

–

–

Final

New Mexico@Air Force

21%
79%

24
42

✓

AF −12.2

–

–

Final

East Carolina@Tulane

14%
86%

18
24

✓

TULN −17.1

–

–

Final

Appalachian State@Texas State

94%
6.0%

38
7

✓

APP −25.3

–

–

Final

San Jose State@Utah State

2.0%
98%

24
62

✓

USU −32.5

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic

10.0%
90%

15
34

✓

FAU −20.1

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Coastal Carolina

63%
37%

44
16

✓

ARST −5.9

–

–

Final

Georgia State@Louisiana

25%
75%

22
36

✓

UL −10.1

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama

53%
47%

38
10

✓

ULM −1.7

–

–

Final

Oregon@Utah

30%
70%

25
32

✓

UTAH −8.0

–

–

Prime time 6 games

Final

#9LSU@Arkansas

90%
10%

24
17

✓

LSU −20.4

–

–

Final

Florida State@#7Notre Dame

9.6%
90%

13
42

✓

ND −20.4

–

–

Final

#17Texas@Texas Tech

59%
41%

41
34

✓

TEX −3.9

–

–

Final

Southern Miss@UAB

21%
79%

23
26

✓

UAB −12.3

–

–

Final

#2Clemson@Boston College

85%
15%

27
7

✓

CLEM −16.7

–

–

Final

Oregon State@#25Stanford

4.3%
96%

17
48

✓

STAN −27.2

–

–

Late night 3 games

Final

California@USC

26%
74%

15
14

✗

USC −9.9

–

–

Final

Colorado State@Nevada

21%
79%

10
49

✓

NEV −12.5

–

–

Final

UNLV@San Diego StateUpset

13%
87%

27
24

✗

SDSU −17.6

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Louisville@Syracuse

11%
89%

23
54

✓

SYR −19.1

–

–

Sun, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final

#13Auburn@#4Georgia

19%
81%

10
27

✓

UGA −13.4

–

–

Final

Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech

48%
52%

21
27

✓

GT −0.1

–

–

Final

FIU@UTSA

74%
26%

45
7

✓

FIU −11.0

–

–

Final

Rice@Louisiana Tech

6.0%
94%

13
28

✓

LT −24.5

–

–

Final

USF@Cincinnati

22%
78%

23
35

✓

CIN −12.0

–

–

Final

Temple@Houston

37%
63%

59
49

✗

HOU −4.9

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Nov 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Lafayette at Army	Army −31.1	98%