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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 58

Wilder than 58% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico State over Liberty14% chance · won 49-41
  • Runner-upUtah over Stanford20% chance · won 40-21
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over Boise State24% chance · won 19-13

Upsets

Thu, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia State@Troy
24%
76%
20
37
✓
TROY −12.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Georgia Tech@Louisville
55%
45%
66
31
✓
GT −1.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Marshall
38%
62%
34
24
✗
MRSH −5.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@BYU
42%
58%
45
20
✗
BYU −3.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Tulsa@Houston
17%
83%
26
41
✓
HOU −16.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#1Alabama@Arkansas
99%
1.3%
65
31
✓
ALA −36.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#21South Carolina
35%
65%
35
37
✓
SC −6.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Rutgers
59%
41%
38
17
✓
ILL −3.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@#6Michigan
15%
85%
21
42
✓
MICH −17.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#24Michigan StateUpset
31%
69%
29
19
✗
MSU −8.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#18West Virginia
8.7%
91%
22
38
✓
WVU −22.6
–
–
Final
#15Texasvs#5Oklahoma
29%
71%
48
45
✗
OU −9.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Cincinnati
33%
67%
21
37
✓
CIN −7.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
24%
76%
6
49
✓
TEM −12.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Central Michigan
66%
34%
34
24
✓
BUF −6.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
36%
64%
24
27
✓
WMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Pittsburgh
69%
31%
37
44
✗
SYR −8.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#16NC State
28%
72%
23
28
✓
NCSU −9.8
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
50%
50%
24
16
✓
NIU −0.1
–
–
Final
#11LSU@#17Florida
55%
45%
19
27
✗
LSU −1.9
–
–
Final
#23Iowa@Minnesota
64%
36%
48
31
✓
IOWA −5.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Baylor
36%
64%
34
37
✓
BAY −6.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#20Oklahoma StateUpset
30%
70%
48
42
✗
OKST −8.9
–
–
Final
#7Clemson@Wake Forest
86%
14%
63
3
✓
CLEM −17.9
–
–
Final
Florida State@#19Miami (FL)
24%
76%
27
28
✓
MIA −12.1
–
–
Final
USF@UMass
84%
16%
58
42
✓
USF −16.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Air Force
53%
47%
7
35
✗
NAVY −1.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
9.9%
90%
36
52
✓
TOL −21.4
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
65%
35%
27
26
✓
OHIO −6.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
39%
61%
41
17
✗
AKR −4.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Georgia Southern
26%
74%
13
48
✓
GASO −10.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Boise StateUpset
24%
76%
19
13
✗
BOIS −11.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Ole Miss
5.2%
95%
21
70
✓
MISS −27.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Colorado
56%
44%
21
28
✗
ASU −2.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@#2Ohio State
4.3%
96%
26
49
✓
OSU −28.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
37%
63%
50
14
✗
UNLV −5.5
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Florida Atlantic
23%
77%
33
52
✓
FAU −12.5
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Kentucky@Texas A&M
45%
55%
14
20
✓
TA&M −2.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana Tech
30%
70%
28
7
✗
LT −8.9
–
–
Final
UTSA@Rice
51%
49%
20
3
✓
UTSA −0.2
–
–
Final
SMU@#13UCF
6.7%
93%
20
48
✓
UCF −24.9
–
–
Final
UConn@Memphis
4.6%
95%
14
55
✓
MEM −28.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas State
67%
33%
42
27
✓
UL −7.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#3Georgia
6.2%
94%
13
41
✓
UGA −25.6
–
–
Final
#9Auburn@#22Mississippi State
63%
37%
9
23
✗
AUB −5.6
–
–
Final
#10Washington@UCLA
90%
9.9%
31
24
✓
WASH −21.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#12Wisconsin
6.8%
93%
24
41
✓
WIS −24.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTEP
98%
2.2%
27
24
✓
UNT −33.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
85%
15%
56
37
✓
WSU −17.0
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
California@Arizona
44%
56%
17
24
✓
ARIZ −2.4
–
–
Final
Utah@#14StanfordUpset
20%
80%
40
21
✗
STAN −13.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Jose State
60%
40%
42
30
✓
CSU −3.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
83%
17%
21
3
✓
FRES −15.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
35%
65%
13
17
✓
HAW −6.6
–
–

Sun, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#8Notre Dame@#25Virginia Tech
68%
32%
45
23
✓
ND −7.8
–
–
Final
Liberty@New Mexico StateUpset
86%
14%
41
49
✗
LIB −17.7
–
–