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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 16.5 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Georgia Southern22% chance · won 44-25
  • Runner-upSMU over Houston24% chance · won 45-31
  • Runner-upTexas State over Georgia State28% chance · won 40-30

Upsets

Wed, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ball State@Toledo
16%
84%
13
45
✓
TOL −15.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
54%
46%
35
28
✓
KENT −2.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
32%
68%
42
51
✓
BUF −7.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
62%
38%
36
26
✓
NIU −5.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
45%
55%
59
14
✗
WMU −1.3
–
–
Final
Temple@#13UCF
16%
84%
40
52
✓
UCF −15.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia
35%
65%
23
13
✗
UVA −5.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado@Arizona
46%
54%
34
42
✓
ARIZ −0.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Air Force@Army
22%
78%
14
17
✓
ARMY −11.7
–
–
Final
#24Texas A&M@#12Auburn
32%
68%
24
28
✓
AUB −6.8
–
–
Final
#25South Carolina@Ole Miss
56%
44%
48
44
✓
SC −3.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#17Wisconsin
2.6%
97%
17
31
✓
WIS −31.0
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@Maryland
54%
46%
24
3
✓
MSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Baylor
67%
33%
31
35
✗
OKST −7.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
84%
16%
27
3
✓
ISU −16.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@#2Clemson
0.7%
99%
16
77
✓
CLEM −38.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Wake Forest
64%
36%
41
24
✓
SYR −6.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#6Ohio State
5.6%
94%
31
36
✓
OSU −25.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
82%
18%
59
41
✓
MEM −15.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
18%
82%
7
17
✓
EMU −13.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
69%
31%
38
28
✓
GT −8.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Georgia State
28%
72%
40
30
✗
GAST −9.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Wyoming
21%
79%
9
24
✓
WYO −12.6
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Marshall@Southern Miss
59%
41%
24
26
✗
MRSH −3.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
19%
81%
14
38
✓
ARST −13.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
78%
22%
25
44
✗
GASO −12.8
–
–
Final
#3Georgia@Kentucky
78%
22%
34
17
✓
UGA −13.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
70%
30%
31
55
✗
MINN −8.8
–
–
Final
#10Iowa@#20Purdue
52%
48%
36
38
✗
IOWA −1.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@TCU
27%
73%
13
14
✓
TCU −9.4
–
–
Final
Florida State@NC State
26%
74%
28
47
✓
NCSU −9.7
–
–
Final
#16West Virginia@#18Texas
43%
57%
42
41
✗
TEX −2.2
–
–
Final
Liberty@UMass
58%
42%
59
62
✗
LIB −3.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Rice
39%
61%
34
26
✗
RICE −3.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Cincinnati
22%
78%
0
42
✓
CIN −11.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@USF
34%
66%
41
15
✗
USF −6.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
28%
72%
16
26
✓
TROY −8.8
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@#4Michigan
35%
65%
7
42
✓
MICH −5.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia Tech
53%
47%
31
21
✓
BC −1.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@#14FloridaUpset
34%
66%
38
17
✗
FLA −6.3
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Tennessee
7.3%
93%
3
14
✓
TENN −22.9
–
–
Final
#19Utah@Arizona StateUpset
55%
45%
20
38
✗
UTAH −2.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Coastal Carolina
86%
14%
23
7
✓
APP −18.1
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Duke@Miami (FL)
36%
64%
20
12
✗
MIA −5.2
–
–
Final
UConn@Tulsa
18%
82%
19
49
✓
TLSA −14.2
–
–
Final
Houston@SMUUpset
76%
24%
31
45
✗
HOU −11.9
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@Northwestern
72%
28%
31
21
✓
ND −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#15Mississippi State
8.4%
92%
3
45
✓
MSST −21.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon
30%
70%
21
42
✓
ORE −7.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@FIU
39%
61%
49
14
✗
FIU −4.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@UAB
10%
90%
3
52
✓
UAB −19.6
–
–
Final
#23Stanford@#11Washington
32%
68%
23
27
✓
WASH −7.0
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
USC@Oregon State
88%
12%
38
21
✓
USC −18.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Boise State
25%
75%
16
21
✓
BOIS −10.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
68%
32%
31
23
✓
SDSU −7.9
–
–
Final
#21Fresno State@UNLV
94%
6.3%
48
3
✓
FRES −24.9
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
22%
78%
13
19
✓
WSU −12.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Hawaii
85%
15%
56
17
✓
USU −17.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
14%
86%
10
29
✓
MTSU −17.2
–
–

Sun, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#1Alabama@#9LSU
77%
23%
29
0
✓
ALA −12.4
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Texas Tech
83%
17%
51
46
✓
OU −15.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 3 · 4:00 PM ET Alcorn State at New Mexico State New Mexico State −17.8 87%