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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 78 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Carolina over North Carolina9.2% chance · won 41-19
  • Runner-upMaine over Western Kentucky9.2% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Purdue13% chance · won 20-19

Upsets

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
#19Mississippi State@Kansas State
77%
23%
31
10
✓
MSST −11.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Vanderbilt
20%
80%
10
41
✓
VAN −12.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Houston
48%
52%
18
45
✓
HOU −0.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#12Michigan
4.6%
95%
3
49
✓
MICH −25.9
–
–
Final
#25Duke@Northwestern
47%
53%
21
7
✗
NU −0.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@USF
54%
46%
38
49
✗
GT −2.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@PurdueUpset
13%
87%
20
19
✗
PUR −17.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#10Wisconsin
2.0%
98%
14
45
✓
WIS −31.9
–
–
Final
Liberty@Army
48%
52%
14
38
✓
ARMY −0.2
–
–
Final
Georgia State@NC State
4.3%
96%
7
41
✓
NCSU −26.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@#3Oklahoma
5.1%
95%
21
49
✓
OU −25.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@Florida Atlantic
43%
57%
26
33
✓
FAU −2.1
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Kansas@Central Michigan
39%
61%
31
7
✗
CMU −3.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#1Alabama
0.5%
>99%
7
57
✓
ALA −40.5
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@#18South Carolina
65%
35%
41
17
✓
UGA −6.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Nebraska
51%
49%
33
28
✓
COLO −0.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#2Ohio State
1.4%
99%
3
52
✓
OSU −34.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@East CarolinaUpset
91%
9.2%
19
41
✗
UNC −21.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#6Notre Dame
0.8%
99%
16
24
✓
ND −37.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Temple
44%
56%
36
29
✗
TEM −2.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Navy
59%
41%
21
22
✗
MEM −4.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#16Iowa
23%
77%
3
13
✓
IOWA −11.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Bowling Green
90%
9.6%
45
14
✓
MD −20.7
–
–
Final
UMass@Georgia Southern
50%
50%
13
34
✓
MASS −0.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Charlotte
86%
14%
45
9
✓
APP −17.6
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Wyoming@Missouri
15%
85%
13
40
✓
MIZ −15.5
–
–
Final
#7Clemson@Texas A&M
73%
27%
28
26
✓
CLEM −10.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@UTSA
83%
17%
37
20
✓
BAY −15.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Southern MissUpset
22%
78%
21
20
✗
USM −11.6
–
–
Final
UAB@Coastal Carolina
74%
26%
24
47
✗
UAB −10.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Colorado StateUpset
78%
22%
27
34
✗
ARK −12.2
–
–
Final
Kentucky@FloridaUpset
25%
75%
27
16
✗
FLA −10.1
–
–
Final
Utah@Northern Illinois
65%
35%
17
6
✓
UTAH −6.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Indiana
37%
63%
16
20
✓
IU −4.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Minnesota
44%
56%
14
21
✓
MINN −1.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Old Dominion
60%
40%
28
20
✓
FIU −4.3
–
–
Final
#15USC@#11Stanford
36%
64%
3
17
✓
STAN −5.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@UNLV
4.2%
96%
24
52
✓
UNLV −26.6
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
California@BYU
57%
43%
21
18
✓
CAL −3.1
–
–
Final
UConn@Boise State
3.8%
96%
7
62
✓
BOIS −27.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#22Arizona State
39%
61%
13
16
✓
ASU −3.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Washington State
0.9%
99%
0
31
✓
WSU −36.7
–
–
Final
Rice@Hawaii
17%
83%
29
43
✓
HAW −14.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
TCU@SMU
81%
19%
42
12
✓
TCU −13.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#8Penn State@Pittsburgh
86%
14%
51
6
✓
PSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#20Texas
4.8%
95%
21
28
✓
TEX −25.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
8.7%
91%
13
60
✓
USU −20.7
–
–
Final
South Alabama@#21Oklahoma State
3.9%
96%
13
55
✓
OKST −27.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
60%
40%
21
0
✓
CIN −4.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Alabama State at #4 Auburn Auburn −53.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at #14 LSU LSU −58.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 4:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Ole Miss Ole Miss −40.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 4:00 PM ET East Tennessee State at Tennessee Tennessee −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · 2:00 PM ET Portland State at Oregon Oregon −48.6 >99%
Sun, Sep 9 · TBD Southern Utah at Oregon State Oregon State −22.7 93%
Sat, Sep 8 · 5:00 PM ET North Dakota at #9 Washington Washington −49.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Western Illinois at Illinois Illinois −22.0 93%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Boston College Boston College −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:20 PM ET Samford at #24 Florida State Florida State −40.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Louisville Louisville −40.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET Savannah State at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −63.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:30 PM ET Wagner at Syracuse Syracuse −42.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 2:00 PM ET William & Mary at #13 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −49.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 12:00 PM ET Towson at Wake Forest Wake Forest −39.1 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 4:00 PM ET Lamar at Texas Tech Texas Tech −35.2 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #23 West Virginia West Virginia −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Southern at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −44.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Marshall Marshall −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −30.2 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Incarnate Word at North Texas North Texas −43.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:30 PM ET Maine at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −20.2 91%
Sun, Sep 9 · TBD Nicholls at Tulane Tulane −28.5 97%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET South Carolina State at #17 UCF UCF −48.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:30 PM ET Howard at Kent State Kent State −24.1 94%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State at Akron Akron −35.6 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Texas State Texas Southern −0.4 50%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at Troy Troy −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 8 · 9:00 PM ET Sacramento State at San Diego State San Diego State −16.1 86%