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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockBowling Green over Akron26% chance · won 21-6
  • Runner-upNebraska over Michigan State33% chance · won 9-6
  • Runner-upBall State over Western Michigan35% chance · won 42-41

Upsets

Tue, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
65%
35%
41
42
✗
WMU −6.8
–
–

Wed, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Northern Illinois
35%
65%
13
7
✗
NIU −5.6
–
–

Thu, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Toledo@Kent State
78%
22%
56
34
✓
TOL −12.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Tulane@Houston
29%
71%
17
48
✓
HOU −8.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@North Texas
38%
62%
38
41
✓
UNT −4.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Ohio
46%
54%
17
52
✓
OHIO −1.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@SMU
63%
37%
28
18
✓
MEM −5.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@New Mexico
87%
13%
45
14
✓
BOIS −18.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Kentucky
16%
84%
23
34
✓
UK −15.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#12Mississippi State
8.8%
91%
6
52
✓
MSST −21.2
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@Rutgers
97%
2.8%
20
7
✓
PSU −31.1
–
–
Final
#6Ohio State@Maryland
81%
19%
52
51
✓
OSU −14.4
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@NebraskaUpset
67%
33%
6
9
✗
MSU −7.5
–
–
Final
TCU@Baylor
54%
46%
16
9
✓
TCU −2.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Wake Forest
59%
41%
34
13
✓
PITT −4.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
60%
40%
24
14
✓
NU −4.7
–
–
Final
USF@Temple
26%
74%
17
27
✓
TEM −9.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Louisville
85%
15%
52
10
✓
NCSU −17.3
–
–
Final
#24Utah@Colorado
69%
31%
30
7
✓
UTAH −8.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Charlotte
70%
30%
42
35
✓
FIU −8.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
94%
6.5%
29
24
✓
USU −24.6
–
–
Final
Syracusevs#7Notre Dame
22%
78%
3
36
✓
ND −12.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@Marshall
8.9%
91%
0
23
✓
MRSH −21.2
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Appalachian State
4.5%
96%
17
45
✓
APP −26.8
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
22%
78%
17
31
✓
ARST −11.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
82%
18%
21
12
✓
NEV −15.0
–
–
Final
#18Missouri@Tennessee
63%
37%
50
17
✓
MIZ −5.8
–
–
Final
USC@UCLA
65%
35%
27
34
✗
USC −6.6
–
–
Final
#14Iowa@Illinois
90%
10%
63
0
✓
IOWA −20.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas State
61%
39%
6
21
✗
TTU −5.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Florida State
62%
38%
21
22
✗
BC −5.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
36%
64%
27
30
✓
GT −5.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia Tech
58%
42%
38
14
✓
MIA −3.8
–
–
Final
#10West Virginia@Oklahoma StateUpset
61%
39%
41
45
✗
WVU −5.0
–
–
Final
#17Wisconsin@Purdue
49%
51%
47
44
✗
WIS −0.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Southern Miss
50%
50%
20
21
✗
LT −0.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Navy
34%
66%
29
37
✓
NAVY −6.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Akron
26%
74%
21
6
✗
AKR −10.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@Troy
7.5%
92%
7
12
✓
TROY −22.6
–
–
Final
Liberty@#13Auburn
3.4%
97%
0
53
✓
AUB −29.0
–
–
Final
UMass@#4Georgia
0.2%
>99%
27
66
✓
UGA −46.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#3Michigan
3.6%
96%
20
31
✓
MICH −28.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
65%
35%
27
35
✗
AF −6.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#11Washington
2.3%
98%
23
42
✓
WASH −31.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Coastal Carolina
66%
34%
41
17
✓
GASO −6.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
18%
82%
38
48
✓
UL −13.9
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Rice@#9LSU
0.2%
>99%
10
42
✓
LSU −47.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
45%
55%
29
36
✓
VAN −1.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@#5Oklahoma
1.8%
98%
40
55
✓
OU −33.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
16
40
✓
WKU −8.6
–
–
Final
#25Iowa State@#16Texas
38%
62%
10
24
✓
TEX −4.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#15UCF
23%
77%
13
38
✓
UCF −11.5
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
New Mexico State@BYU
4.0%
96%
10
45
✓
BYU −27.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon
50%
50%
29
31
✓
ASU −0.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
22%
78%
28
69
✓
WSU −11.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#20Fresno State
14%
86%
14
23
✓
FRES −17.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
41%
59%
28
35
✓
HAW −3.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
UAB@#19Texas A&M
15%
85%
20
41
✓
TA&M −16.3
–
–
Final
Duke@#2Clemson
6.9%
93%
6
35
✓
CLEM −23.4
–
–
Final
UConn@East Carolina
25%
75%
21
55
✓
ECU −10.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 17 · 12:00 PM ET The Citadel at #1 Alabama Alabama −68.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 12:00 PM ET Idaho at #21 Florida Florida −38.9 99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 7:30 PM ET Chattanooga at South Carolina South Carolina −39.9 99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 3:00 PM ET Western Carolina at North Carolina North Carolina −33.0 98%
Sat, Nov 17 · 12:00 PM ET Colgate at Army Army −42.2 >99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 2:00 PM ET VMI at Old Dominion Old Dominion −34.7 98%