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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2018

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 85

Wilder than 85% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 11.8 expected

  • Biggest shockAkron over Northwestern5.5% chance · won 39-34
  • Runner-upBYU over Wisconsin7.5% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upTemple over Maryland7.7% chance · won 35-14

Upsets

Thu, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Old Dominion@Charlotte
38%
62%
25
28
✓
CLT −4.2
–
–
Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
61%
39%
41
34
✓
BC −5.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia State@Memphis
9.2%
91%
22
59
✓
MEM −20.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@#4Georgia
0.8%
99%
7
49
✓
UGA −37.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tennessee
0.5%
>99%
0
24
✓
TENN −40.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Kansas
55%
45%
14
55
✗
RUTG −2.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
20%
80%
10
38
✓
IU −12.7
–
–
Final
Temple@MarylandUpset
7.7%
92%
35
14
✗
MD −21.7
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@Iowa State
85%
15%
37
27
✓
OU −16.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@#8Clemson
1.8%
98%
7
38
✓
CLEM −32.6
–
–
Final
Florida State@Syracuse
56%
44%
7
30
✗
FSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Toledo
66%
34%
49
24
✓
MIA −6.9
–
–
Final
Troy@NebraskaUpset
19%
81%
24
19
✗
NEB −13.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@#5Penn State
0.5%
>99%
10
63
✓
PSU −40.0
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Army
20%
80%
21
28
✓
ARMY −12.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Pittsburgh
56%
44%
19
24
✗
GT −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@UAB
66%
34%
24
31
✗
TULN −7.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#11Notre Dame
19%
81%
17
22
✓
ND −13.2
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
#19LSU@#6AuburnUpset
23%
77%
22
21
✗
AUB −10.9
–
–
Final
USFvsIllinois
71%
29%
25
19
✓
USF −8.9
–
–
Final
SMU@#9Michigan
1.4%
99%
20
45
✓
MICH −33.9
–
–
Final
#18Duke@Baylor
73%
27%
40
27
✓
DUKE −10.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Minnesota
9.2%
91%
3
26
✓
MINN −20.2
–
–
Final
BYU@#10WisconsinUpset
7.5%
92%
24
21
✗
WIS −22.0
–
–
Final
#23Boise State@#13Oklahoma State
34%
66%
21
44
✓
OKST −5.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
20%
80%
16
24
✓
NIU −12.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arkansas
33%
67%
44
17
✗
ARK −6.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Florida
11%
89%
10
48
✓
FLA −18.7
–
–
Final
UTSA@Kansas State
13%
87%
17
41
✓
KSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas Tech
62%
38%
49
63
✗
HOU −5.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Virginia
25%
75%
31
45
✓
UVA −9.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon
0.6%
99%
22
35
✓
ORE −39.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Buffalo
41%
59%
28
35
✓
BUF −3.1
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#1Alabama@Ole Miss
93%
7.4%
62
7
✓
ALA −22.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Nevada
36%
64%
35
37
✓
NEV −4.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Tulsa
48%
52%
29
20
✗
TLSA −0.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@South Alabama
20%
80%
31
41
✓
USA −12.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#17Mississippi State
1.9%
98%
10
56
✓
MSST −32.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@Purdue
56%
44%
40
37
✓
MIZ −3.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas A&M
2.9%
97%
10
48
✓
TA&M −29.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisville
5.2%
95%
17
20
✓
LOU −24.9
–
–
Final
Akron@NorthwesternUpset
5.5%
94%
39
34
✗
NU −24.5
–
–
Final
UMass@FIU
36%
64%
24
63
✓
FIU −4.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#12Washington@Utah
76%
24%
21
7
✓
WASH −11.3
–
–
Final
#21Arizona State@San Diego StateUpset
76%
24%
21
28
✗
ASU −11.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UCLA
49%
51%
38
14
✗
FRES −0.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#15USC@TexasUpset
52%
48%
14
37
✗
USC −1.1
–
–
Final
#2Ohio StatevsTCU
89%
11%
40
28
✓
OSU −19.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
78%
22%
42
25
✓
UNM −12.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:00 PM ET Murray State at Kentucky Kentucky −44.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 11:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Arizona Arizona −38.8 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 5:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Colorado Colorado −40.8 >99%
Sun, Sep 16 · TBD Eastern Washington at Washington State Washington State −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM ET Idaho State at California California −41.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 2:00 PM ET UC Davis at #7 Stanford Stanford −60.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at #14 Iowa Iowa −41.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −33.0 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Alabama A&M at Cincinnati Cincinnati −42.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:00 PM ET Rhode Island at UConn UConn −16.1 86%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:30 PM ET Lehigh at Navy Navy −24.2 94%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Delaware State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −40.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Bowling Green Bowling Green −19.8 90%
Wed, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at Campbell Coastal Carolina −3.3 57%
Fri, Sep 14 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Utah State Utah State −33.7 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:00 PM ET Wofford at Wyoming Wyoming −20.4 91%
Sat, Sep 15 · 10:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at UNLV UNLV −22.5 93%