The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 40 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 24

Wilder than 24% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana Tech over Miami (FL)25% chance · won 14-0
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Auburn29% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upLiberty over Georgia Southern33% chance · won 23-16

Upsets

Fri, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
BuffalovsCharlotte
67%
33%
31
9
✓
BUF −7.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Utah StatevsKent State
67%
33%
41
51
✗
USU −7.3
–
–

Sat, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Central MichiganvsSan Diego State
35%
65%
11
48
✓
SDSU −5.7
–
–
Final
LibertyvsGeorgia Southern
33%
67%
23
16
✗
GASO −6.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
SMU@Florida Atlantic
49%
51%
28
52
✓
FAU −0.1
–
–
Final
FIUvsArkansas State
41%
59%
26
34
✓
ARST −3.0
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Boise Statevs#16Washington
35%
65%
7
38
✓
WASH −5.7
–
–
Final
#25Appalachian StatevsUAB
89%
11%
31
17
✓
APP −20.1
–
–

Mon, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
#20UCFvsMarshall
87%
13%
48
25
✓
UCF −18.5
–
–

Tue, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
HawaiivsBYU
35%
65%
38
34
✗
BYU −5.7
–
–

Thu, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Louisiana TechvsMiami (FL)Upset
24%
76%
14
0
✗
MIA −10.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsEastern Michigan
78%
22%
34
30
✓
PITT −12.6
–
–

Fri, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
North CarolinavsTemple
64%
36%
55
13
✓
UNC −6.2
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Michigan StatevsWake Forest
64%
36%
27
21
✓
MSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma Statevs#22Texas A&M
40%
60%
21
24
✓
TA&M −3.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#17USCvs#15Iowa
45%
55%
24
49
✓
IOWA −1.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Air ForcevsWashington State
48%
52%
31
21
✗
WSU −0.2
–
–

Sat, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#10Notre Damevs#24Iowa State
73%
27%
33
9
✓
ND −10.2
–
–
Final
#23Memphisvs#8Penn State
25%
75%
39
53
✓
PSU −10.5
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#11Oklahomavs#3LSU
28%
72%
28
63
✓
LSU −8.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Clemsonvs#1Ohio State
38%
62%
29
23
✗
OSU −4.2
–
–

Mon, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Western KentuckyvsWestern Michigan
47%
53%
23
20
✗
WMU −0.5
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Mississippi StatevsLouisville
66%
34%
28
38
✗
MSST −6.9
–
–
Final
CaliforniavsIllinois
54%
46%
35
20
✓
CAL −2.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#13FloridavsVirginia
80%
20%
36
28
✓
FLA −14.2
–
–

Tue, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Virginia TechvsKentucky
40%
60%
30
37
✓
UK −3.4
–
–
Final
Florida StatevsArizona State
43%
57%
14
20
✓
ASU −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
NavyvsKansas State
51%
49%
20
17
✓
NAVY −0.9
–
–
Final
WyomingvsGeorgia State
72%
28%
38
17
✓
WYO −9.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#14Utahvs#18Texas
66%
34%
10
38
✗
UTAH −6.9
–
–

Wed, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#7Michiganvs#4Alabama
31%
68%
16
35
✓
ALA −7.2
–
–
Final
#21Minnesotavs#9Auburn
29%
71%
31
24
✗
AUB −8.2
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#12Oregonvs#6Wisconsin
44%
56%
28
27
✗
WIS −2.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Georgiavs#19Baylor
73%
27%
26
14
✓
UGA −10.3
–
–

Thu, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Boston CollegevsCincinnati
34%
66%
6
38
✓
CIN −6.1
–
–

Fri, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
OhiovsNevada
70%
30%
30
21
✓
OHIO −9.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
IndianavsTennessee
51%
49%
22
23
✗
IU −0.9
–
–

Sat, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Southern MissvsTulane
30%
70%
13
30
✓
TULN −7.9
–
–

Mon, Jan 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
LouisianavsMiami (OH)
80%
20%
27
17
✓
UL −13.7
–
–

Mon, Jan 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#2Clemsonvs#3LSU
55%
45%
25
42
✗
CLEM −2.6
–
–