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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 74 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 11.4 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Illinois over UMass15% chance · won 45-20
  • Runner-upCalifornia over Washington15% chance · won 20-19
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over UCLA19% chance · won 23-14

Upsets

Fri, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@Boise State
21%
79%
7
14
✓
BOIS −12.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Ohio@Pittsburgh
24%
76%
10
20
✓
PITT −10.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Missouri
46%
54%
7
38
✓
MIZ −1.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Purdue
44%
56%
24
42
✓
PUR −1.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kansas State
7.8%
92%
0
52
✓
KSU −21.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#20Iowa
8.6%
91%
0
30
✓
IOWA −20.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Maryland
38%
62%
20
63
✓
MD −4.2
–
–
Final
Army@#6Michigan
8.2%
92%
21
24
✓
MICH −21.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#5Ohio State
16%
84%
0
42
✓
OSU −15.3
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Virginia Tech
4.2%
96%
17
31
✓
VT −26.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Akron
57%
43%
31
20
✓
UAB −3.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#16Utah
6.6%
93%
17
35
✓
UTAH −23.0
–
–
Final
USF@Georgia Tech
17%
83%
10
14
✓
GT −14.3
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
Southern Miss@#21Mississippi State
10%
90%
15
38
✓
MSST −19.1
–
–
Final
#12Texas A&M@#2Clemson
13%
87%
10
24
✓
CLEM −16.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@UConn
95%
5.2%
31
23
✓
ILL −25.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Colorado
44%
56%
31
34
✓
COLO −2.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#14Wisconsin
1.0%
99%
0
61
✓
WIS −36.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Appalachian State
8.5%
92%
41
56
✓
APP −20.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#1Alabama
<0.1%
>99%
10
62
✓
ALA −55.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Baylor
7.6%
92%
14
63
✓
BAY −21.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UCLAUpset
19%
81%
23
14
✗
UCLA −13.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Florida State
8.2%
92%
44
45
✓
FSU −21.2
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
BYU@Tennessee
35%
65%
29
26
✗
TENN −5.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Kansas
30%
70%
12
7
✗
KU −7.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
26%
74%
20
14
✗
FIU −9.7
–
–
Final
#23UCF@Florida Atlantic
75%
25%
48
14
✓
UCF −10.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@SMU
34%
66%
27
49
✓
SMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Texas State
76%
24%
23
14
✓
WYO −11.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@#13Auburn
13%
87%
6
24
✓
AUB −16.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#24Kentucky
9.7%
90%
17
38
✓
UK −19.7
–
–
Final
#4LSU@#9Texas
54%
46%
45
38
✓
LSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
24%
76%
17
31
✓
MISS −10.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#18Michigan State
9.7%
90%
17
51
✓
MSU −19.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#11Penn State
3.7%
96%
13
45
✓
PSU −27.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@#22Oregon
13%
87%
6
77
✓
ORE −17.0
–
–
Final
Liberty@Louisiana
23%
77%
14
35
✓
UL −10.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@San Jose State
58%
42%
34
16
✓
TLSA −3.8
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Arkansas State@UNLV
44%
56%
43
17
✗
UNLV −1.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Fresno State
44%
56%
38
35
✗
FRES −1.8
–
–
Final
California@#19WashingtonUpset
15%
85%
20
19
✗
WASH −15.6
–
–
Final
#17Stanford@#15USC
38%
62%
20
45
✓
USC −4.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Hawaii
44%
56%
28
31
✓
HAW −1.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wake Forest@Rice
85%
15%
41
21
✓
WAKE −16.5
–
–

Sun, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
UTEP@Texas Tech
1.8%
98%
3
38
✓
TTU −32.3
–
–
Final
#25Miami (FL)@North CarolinaUpset
57%
43%
25
28
✗
MIA −3.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET UT Martin at #10 Florida Florida −49.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 4:00 PM ET Murray State at #3 Georgia Georgia −62.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at South Carolina South Carolina −42.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET South Dakota at #8 Oklahoma Oklahoma −48.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −35.3 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Indiana Indiana −38.5 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · TBD William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −42.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Richmond at Boston College Boston College −34.2 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Duke Duke −30.1 97%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −29.2 97%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:30 PM ET Western Carolina at NC State NC State −43.5 >99%
Fri, Sep 6 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Arizona State Arizona State −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 7 · 10:45 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −32.2 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 5:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Washington State Washington State −38.0 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Grambling at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −19.6 90%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at UMass UMass −15.9 86%
Sat, Sep 7 · 4:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Colorado State Colorado State −16.3 86%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Stony Brook at Utah State Utah State −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at East Carolina East Carolina −32.3 98%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD Prairie View A&M at Houston Houston −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Southern at Memphis Memphis −44.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Fordham at Ball State Ball State −24.7 95%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Kennesaw State at Kent State Kent State −2.6 58%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:30 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −26.3 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET Maine at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Furman at Georgia State Georgia State −21.8 92%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Jackson State at South Alabama South Alabama −23.0 93%