The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 62 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.6 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Wisconsin4.2% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Missouri12% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Miami (FL)16% chance · won 28-21

Upsets

Thu, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
60%
40%
37
20
✓
UL −4.4
–
–
Final
UCLA@StanfordUpset
19%
81%
34
16
✗
STAN −13.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
South Alabama@Troy
14%
86%
13
37
✓
TROY −17.2
–
–

Fri, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Marshall@Florida Atlantic
26%
74%
36
31
✗
FAU −9.6
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
48%
52%
27
20
✗
SYR −0.5
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Northwestern
95%
5.0%
52
3
✓
OSU −26.7
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@Fresno State
15%
86%
27
56
✓
FRES −16.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#9Auburn@Arkansas
92%
7.5%
51
10
✓
AUB −23.5
–
–
Final
#13Florida@#25South Carolina
57%
43%
38
27
✓
FLA −3.4
–
–
Final
#22Iowa State@Texas Tech
66%
34%
34
24
✓
ISU −7.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#7Oklahoma
6.7%
93%
14
52
✓
OU −23.6
–
–
Final
#4Wisconsin@IllinoisUpset
96%
4.2%
23
24
✗
WIS −28.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@#17Iowa
16%
84%
20
26
✓
IOWA −15.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
46%
54%
24
45
✓
BC −1.2
–
–
Final
#3Clemson@Louisville
94%
6.1%
45
10
✓
CLEM −25.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)Upset
16%
84%
28
21
✗
MIA −15.5
–
–
Final
Houston@UConn
95%
5.4%
24
17
✓
HOU −26.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
41%
59%
38
45
✓
OHIO −3.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Bowling Green
69%
31%
38
20
✓
CMU −8.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
57%
43%
14
52
✗
TOL −3.2
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas State
55%
45%
17
24
✗
TCU −2.4
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
25%
75%
21
17
✗
CAL −10.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Miami (OH)
39%
61%
24
27
✓
M-OH −3.8
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
14%
86%
10
23
✓
WYO −16.8
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia Southern
34%
66%
27
30
✓
GASO −5.9
–
–
Final
#5LSU@Mississippi State
78%
22%
36
13
✓
LSU −13.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Maryland
38%
62%
34
28
✗
MD −4.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Rutgers
92%
8.0%
42
7
✓
MINN −22.8
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
47%
53%
14
48
✓
UVA −0.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia Tech
67%
33%
41
43
✗
UNC −7.5
–
–
Final
#11Oregon@#15Washington
47%
53%
35
31
✗
WASH −0.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
44%
56%
30
45
✓
LT −1.8
–
–
Final
USF@Navy
19%
81%
3
35
✓
NAVY −13.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#24Cincinnati
8.1%
92%
13
24
✓
CIN −21.9
–
–
Final
Temple@SMU
30%
70%
21
45
✓
SMU −7.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
79%
21%
21
0
✓
BUF −13.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Appalachian State
7.7%
92%
7
52
✓
APP −22.4
–
–
Final
#19Missouri@VanderbiltUpset
88%
12%
14
21
✗
MIZ −18.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
38%
62%
45
27
✗
OKST −4.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Western Kentucky
29%
71%
14
30
✓
WKU −8.5
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
37%
63%
30
33
✓
UNT −4.8
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@UAB
14%
86%
14
38
✓
UAB −16.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#8Georgia
9.4%
91%
0
21
✓
UGA −20.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#16Utah
23%
77%
3
21
✓
UTAH −11.1
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
59%
41%
27
31
✗
RICE −4.0
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Kansas@#12Texas
3.2%
97%
48
50
✓
TEX −29.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington State
32%
68%
10
41
✓
WSU −7.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@FIU
5.8%
94%
17
32
✓
FIU −24.8
–
–
Final
Army@Georgia State
65%
35%
21
28
✗
ARMY −6.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
69%
31%
27
17
✓
SDSU −8.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#20UCF
2.1%
98%
28
41
✓
UCF −32.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
44%
56%
17
47
✓
MEM −1.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
70%
30%
27
34
✗
WMU −8.7
–
–
Final
#23Texas A&M@Ole Miss
66%
34%
24
17
✓
TA&M −7.0
–
–
Final
#14Michigan@#6Penn State
27%
73%
21
28
✓
PSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Florida State@Wake Forest
47%
53%
20
22
✓
WAKE −0.8
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#1Alabama
1.3%
99%
13
35
✓
ALA −35.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@#18USC
12%
88%
14
41
✓
USC −18.0
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Boise State@BYU
62%
38%
25
28
✗
BOIS −5.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
13%
87%
10
36
✓
USU −17.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@Hawaii
58%
42%
56
26
✓
AF −3.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 19 · 6:00 PM ET Maine at Liberty Liberty −26.0 95%