Week 5 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Fri, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Duke@Virginia Tech

54%
46%

45
10

✓

DUKE −1.4

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Arizona State@California

53%
47%

24
17

✓

ASU −1.2

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Navy@Memphis

37%
63%

23
35

✓

MEM −5.7

–

–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final

#20Texas A&MvsArkansas

91%
9.4%

31
27

✓

TA&M −21.7

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Vanderbilt

24%
76%

18
24

✓

VAN −11.8

–

–

Final

Kansas@TCU

18%
82%

14
51

✓

TCU −15.5

–

–

Final

Texas Tech@#9Oklahoma

9.3%
91%

16
55

✓

OU −22.1

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@#21Iowa

6.9%
93%

3
48

✓

IOWA −24.7

–

–

Final

Rutgers@#17Michigan

4.2%
96%

0
52

✓

MICH −28.8

–

–

Final

Northwestern@#6Wisconsin

7.9%
92%

15
24

✓

WIS −23.5

–

–

Final

BYU@Toledo

57%
43%

21
28

✗

BYU −2.9

–

–

Final

Buffalo@Miami (OH)

51%
49%

20
34

✗

BUF −0.2

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Western Michigan

22%
78%

15
31

✓

WMU −12.9

–

–

Afternoon 18 games

Final

Ole Miss@#1Alabama

1.4%
99%

31
59

✓

ALA −36.3

–

–

Final

Iowa State@Baylor

49%
51%

21
23

✓

BAY −0.6

–

–

Final

Indiana@#14Michigan State

16%
84%

31
40

✓

MSU −16.5

–

–

Final

Minnesota@Purdue

50%
50%

38
31

✗

PUR −0.3

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@Boston College

50%
50%

27
24

✗

BC −0.1

–

–

Final

#2Clemson@North Carolina

94%
5.7%

21
20

✓

CLEM −26.1

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@Temple

37%
63%

2
24

✓

TEM −5.5

–

–

Final

Virginia@#7Notre Dame

14%
86%

20
35

✓

ND −17.9

–

–

Final

#15USC@#16Washington

44%
56%

14
28

✓

WASH −2.6

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@Charlotte

55%
45%

45
27

✓

FAU −1.9

–

–

Final

Akron@UMass

61%
39%

29
37

✗

AKR −4.4

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@Appalachian State

13%
87%

37
56

✓

APP −18.7

–

–

Final

SMU@USF

72%
28%

48
21

✓

SMU −9.3

–

–

Final

Cincinnati@Marshall

67%
33%

52
14

✓

CIN −7.4

–

–

Final

East Carolina@Old Dominion

48%
52%

24
21

✗

ODU −1.0

–

–

Final

New Mexico@Liberty

39%
61%

10
17

✓

LIB −4.9

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@Troy

41%
59%

50
43

✗

TROY −3.8

–

–

Final

Louisiana@Georgia Southern

65%
35%

37
24

✓

UL −6.4

–

–

Prime time 12 games

Final

#18Mississippi State@#8Auburn

30%
70%

23
56

✓

AUB −8.6

–

–

Final

Kansas State@#25Oklahoma State

36%
64%

13
26

✓

OKST −6.1

–

–

Final

Stanford@Oregon State

68%
32%

31
28

✓

STAN −7.8

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@Rice

65%
35%

23
20

✓

LT −6.2

–

–

Final

UTEP@Southern Miss

5.3%
95%

13
31

✓

USM −26.8

–

–

Final

UAB@Western Kentucky

62%
38%

13
20

✗

UAB −5.2

–

–

Final

UConn@#19UCF

0.5%
>99%

21
56

✓

UCF −43.3

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Louisiana-Monroe

24%
76%

17
30

✓

ULM −11.9

–

–

Final

Kentucky@South Carolina

52%
48%

7
24

✗

UK −0.5

–

–

Final

#3Ohio State@Nebraska

88%
12%

48
7

✓

OSU −19.0

–

–

Final

NC State@Florida State

39%
61%

13
31

✓

FSU −4.6

–

–

Final

Colorado State@Utah State

9.8%
90%

24
34

✓

USU −21.5

–

–

Late night 3 games

Final

Washington State@#24Utah

35%
65%

13
38

✓

UTAH −6.5

–

–

Final

UCLA@Arizona

43%
57%

17
20

✓

ARIZ −2.9

–

–

Final

Hawaii@Nevada

49%
51%

54
3

✗

NEV −0.6

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

#12Penn State@#22Maryland

59%
41%

59
0

✓

PSU −3.8

–

–

Final

San Jose State@Air Force

14%
86%

24
41

✓

AF −18.1

–

–

Sun, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final

Houston@North Texas

53%
47%

46
25

✓

HOU −1.2

–

–

Final

Fresno State@New Mexico State

90%
9.7%

30
17

✓

FRES −21.5

–

–

Final

UNLV@Wyoming

28%
72%

17
53

✓

WYO −9.8

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 28 · 4:00 PM ET	Towson at #10 Florida	Florida −55.3	>99%
Sat, Sep 28 · 12:30 PM ET	Delaware at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −22.5	91%
Sat, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM ET	Holy Cross at Syracuse	Syracuse −41.5	99%
Sat, Sep 28 · 7:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Texas State	Texas State −15.4	82%