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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 83

Wilder than 83% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockTulsa over UCF14% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upNevada over San Diego State14% chance · won 17-13
  • Runner-upIllinois over Michigan State19% chance · won 37-34

Upsets

Tue, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
27%
73%
31
35
✓
WMU −9.4
–
–

Wed, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
36%
64%
24
21
✗
OHIO −5.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kent State@Toledo
34%
66%
33
35
✓
TOL −6.2
–
–

Thu, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisiana@Coastal Carolina
75%
25%
48
7
✓
UL −11.1
–
–
Final
Temple@USF
50%
50%
17
7
✗
TEM −0.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
#16Washington@Oregon State
77%
23%
19
7
✓
WASH −12.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Arkansas
37%
63%
45
19
✗
ARK −4.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#13Florida
4.1%
96%
0
56
✓
FLA −27.5
–
–
Final
#25Baylor@TCU
44%
56%
29
23
✗
TCU −1.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@West Virginia
41%
59%
38
17
✗
WVU −3.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#1Ohio State
0.9%
99%
14
73
✓
OSU −37.7
–
–
Final
#5Penn State@#19Minnesota
70%
30%
26
31
✗
PSU −8.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
50%
50%
24
22
✓
PUR −0.5
–
–
Final
Florida State@Boston College
44%
56%
38
31
✗
BC −2.0
–
–
Final
UMass@Army
1.3%
99%
7
63
✓
ARMY −35.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@SMU
5.7%
94%
51
59
✓
SMU −25.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
15%
86%
28
33
✓
UVA −16.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Old Dominion
40%
60%
24
23
✗
ODU −3.5
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
Stanford@Colorado
58%
42%
13
16
✗
STAN −3.5
–
–
Final
Charlotte@UTEP
80%
20%
28
21
✓
CLT −13.7
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Texas State
33%
67%
28
30
✓
TXST −6.5
–
–
Final
#4LSU@#2Alabama
26%
74%
46
41
✗
ALA −9.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@#18Texas
27%
73%
24
27
✓
TEX −9.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#22Michigan StateUpset
19%
82%
37
34
✗
MSU −13.9
–
–
Final
Louisville@Miami (FL)
30%
70%
27
52
✓
MIA −8.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia Tech
56%
44%
17
36
✗
WAKE −3.1
–
–
Final
#21USC@Arizona State
58%
42%
31
26
✓
USC −3.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
36%
64%
2
37
✓
USM −5.3
–
–
Final
UConn@#24Cincinnati
0.9%
99%
3
48
✓
CIN −37.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Troy
54%
46%
28
49
✗
GASO −1.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Ole Miss
3.7%
96%
3
41
✓
MISS −28.2
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@#9Wisconsin
28%
72%
22
24
✓
WIS −8.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
17
52
✓
LT −6.0
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Louisiana-Monroe
55%
45%
31
45
✗
GAST −2.6
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
17%
83%
7
37
✓
FAU −15.0
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
40%
60%
17
13
✗
UK −3.4
–
–
Final
#14Notre Dame@Duke
69%
31%
38
7
✓
ND −8.3
–
–
Final
#3Clemson@NC State
96%
3.5%
55
10
✓
CLEM −29.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@BYU
13%
87%
24
31
✓
BYU −17.7
–
–
Final
#23Iowa State@#7Oklahoma
18%
82%
41
42
✓
OU −14.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Wyoming@Boise State
21%
79%
17
20
✓
BOIS −12.4
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego StateUpset
14%
86%
17
13
✗
SDSU −16.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
28%
72%
40
42
✓
HAW −9.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#17UCF@TulsaUpset
86%
14%
31
34
✗
UCF −17.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Missouri@#6Georgia
12%
88%
0
27
✓
UGA −18.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@South Carolina
43%
57%
20
15
✗
SC −2.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
60%
40%
20
33
✗
WSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Fresno State
38%
62%
37
35
✗
FRES −4.4
–
–