Week 1 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 85 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 20

Wilder than 20% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.4 expected

Biggest shockCentral Arkansas over Western Kentucky6.0% chance · won 35-28
Runner-upGeorgia State over Tennessee7.1% chance · won 38-30
Runner-upWyoming over Missouri25% chance · won 37-31

Upsets

South Carolina 20, North Carolina 24#24 South Carolina lost to unranked North Carolina
Georgia State 38, Tennessee 30Georgia State won; the model gave them 7% before kickoff
Missouri 31, Wyoming 37Wyoming won; the model gave them 25% before kickoff

Sat, Aug 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Miami (FL)vs

#8Florida

28%
72%

20
24

✓

FLA −8.7

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Arizona@

Hawaii

65%
35%

38
45

✗

ARIZ −6.4

–

Thu, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

UCLA@

Cincinnati

36%
64%

14
24

✓

CIN −5.0

–

Final

Texas State@

#12Texas A&M

2.0%
98%

7
41

✓

TA&M −31.9

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Kent State@

Arizona State

11%
89%

7
30

✓

ASU −18.3

–

Final

#21Utah@

BYU

59%
41%

30
12

✓

UTAH −3.9

–

Fri, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Rice@

Army

7.4%
93%

7
14

✓

ARMY −22.0

–

Prime time 4 games

Final

Tulsa@

#20Michigan State

10.0%
90%

7
28

✓

MSU −19.5

–

Final

UMass@

Rutgers

34%
66%

21
48

✓

RUTG −5.7

–

Final

#23Wisconsin@

USF

76%
24%

49
0

✓

WIS −11.2

–

Final

Purdue@

Nevada

62%
38%

31
34

✗

PUR −5.1

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Colorado Statevs

Colorado

18%
82%

31
52

✓

COLO −13.7

–

Final

Oklahoma State@

Oregon State

65%
35%

52
36

✓

OKST −6.5

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Georgia Tech@

#2Clemson

6.3%
94%

14
52

✓

CLEM −23.4

–

Final

FIU@

Tulane

41%
59%

14
42

✓

TULN −3.2

–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

Toledo@

Kentucky

18%
82%

24
38

✓

UK −13.6

–

Final

Ole Miss@

Memphis

40%
60%

10
15

✓

MEM −3.5

–

Final

#16Mississippi Statevs

Louisiana

88%
12%

38
28

✓

MSST −18.3

–

Final

Akron@

Illinois

23%
77%

3
42

✓

ILL −11.1

–

Final

Indianavs

Ball State

84%
16%

34
24

✓

IU −16.2

–

Final

South Alabama@

Nebraska

5.7%
94%

21
35

✓

NEB −24.2

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@

#6Ohio State

7.0%
93%

21
45

✓

OSU −22.5

–

Final

Boise State@

Florida State

32%
68%

36
31

✗

FSU −6.5

–

Final

East Carolina@

NC State

17%
84%

6
34

✓

NCSU −14.6

–

Afternoon 7 games

Final

Dukevs

#1Alabama

7.0%
93%

3
42

✓

ALA −22.6

–

Final

#24South Carolinavs

North CarolinaUpset

71%
29%

20
24

✗

SC −9.0

–

Final

Georgia State@

#25TennesseeUpset

7.1%
93%

38
30

✗

TENN −22.4

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@

Coastal Carolina

57%
42%

30
23

✓

EMU −3.4

–

Final

Northwestern@

#18Stanford

26%
74%

7
17

✓

STAN −9.6

–

Final

Virginia Tech@

Boston College

42%
58%

28
35

✓

BC −2.5

–

Final

Syracuse@

Liberty

77%
23%

24
0

✓

SYR −11.9

–

Prime time 8 games

Final

SMU@

Arkansas State

50%
50%

37
30

✗

SMU −0.3

–

Final

#19Oregonvs

#13Auburn

43%
57%

21
27

✓

AUB −2.4

–

Final

Georgia Southern@

#5LSU

6.6%
93%

3
55

✓

LSU −23.0

–

Final

Missouri@

WyomingUpset

75%
25%

31
37

✗

MIZ −11.0

–

Final

#3Georgia@

Vanderbilt

79%
21%

30
6

✓

UGA −12.7

–

Final

Miami (OH)@

#22Iowa

9.8%
90%

14
38

✓

IOWA −19.7

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@

#4Michigan

4.9%
95%

21
40

✓

MICH −25.4

–

Final

Virginia@

Pittsburgh

42%
58%

30
14

✗

PITT −2.5

–

Late night 2 games

Final

New Mexico State@

Washington State

6.2%
94%

7
58

✓

WSU −23.6

–

Final

Fresno State@

#14USC

20%
80%

23
31

✓

USC −12.7

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Utah State@

Wake Forest

41%
59%

35
38

✓

WAKE −3.1

–

Sun, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Houston@

#9Oklahoma

17%
83%

31
49

✓

OU −14.3

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Louisiana Tech@

#10Texas

9.1%
91%

14
45

✓

TEX −20.3

–

Tue, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#7Notre Dame@

Louisville

83%
17%

35
17

✓

ND −15.0

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Aug 31 · 4:00 PM ET	Portland State at Arkansas	Arkansas −32.1	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at Baylor	Baylor −43.1	>99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET	Northern Iowa at Iowa State	Iowa State −31.5	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET	Indiana State at Kansas	Kansas −32.6	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Kansas State	Kansas State −29.5	97%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD	Arkansas-Pine Bluff at TCU	TCU −42.5	>99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 4:00 PM ET	Montana State at Texas Tech	Texas Tech −26.7	96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 2:00 PM ET	James Madison at West Virginia	West Virginia −10.1	75%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET	Howard at Maryland	Maryland −41.5	>99%
Thu, Aug 29 · 9:00 PM ET	South Dakota State at Minnesota	Minnesota −31.7	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET	Idaho at #11 Penn State	Penn State −39.8	>99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:30 PM ET	UC Davis at California	California −32.1	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:00 PM ET	Eastern Washington at #15 Washington	Washington −41.3	>99%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD	Alabama State at UAB	UAB −29.5	97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:30 PM ET	VMI at Marshall	Marshall −44.0	>99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET	Abilene Christian at North Texas	North Texas −34.0	99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Norfolk State at Old Dominion	Old Dominion −16.8	87%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Alcorn State at Southern Miss	Southern Miss −34.3	99%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD	Houston Christian at UTEP	UTEP −16.7	87%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET	Incarnate Word at UTSA	UTSA −27.1	96%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky −23.7	94%
Thu, Aug 29 · 10:00 PM ET	Northern Colorado at San Jose State	San Jose State −10.7	77%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET	Colgate at Air Force	Air Force −33.9	99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET	Sam Houston at New Mexico	New Mexico −9.6	74%
Sat, Aug 31 · 9:00 PM ET	Weber State at San Diego State	San Diego State −32.3	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 10:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at UNLV	UNLV −28.1	97%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET	Florida A&M at #17 UCF	UCF −51.6	>99%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET	Wagner at UConn	UConn −20.2	91%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET	Holy Cross at Navy	Navy −27.9	96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:00 PM ET	Bucknell at Temple	Temple −24.0	94%
Thu, Aug 29 · 8:50 PM ET	UAlbany at Central Michigan	Central Michigan −18.4	89%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET	Morgan State at Bowling Green	Bowling Green −30.6	98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET	Robert Morris at Buffalo	Buffalo −15.2	84%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Illinois State at Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois −19.0	89%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Monmouth at Western Michigan	Western Michigan −25.3	95%
Sat, Aug 31 · 2:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Ohio	Ohio −33.0	98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:30 PM ET	East Tennessee State at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −36.5	99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET	Campbell at Troy	Troy −27.6	96%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD	Grambling at Louisiana-Monroe	Louisiana-Monroe −31.6	98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET	Gardner-Webb at Charlotte	Charlotte −30.2	98%