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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 65

Wilder than 65% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 16.1 expected

  • Biggest shockColorado State over Fresno State9.9% chance · won 41-31
  • Runner-upKansas State over Oklahoma14% chance · won 48-41
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Army20% chance · won 34-29

Upsets

Thu, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@Houston
59%
41%
34
31
✓
SMU −4.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#15USC@Colorado
80%
20%
35
31
✓
USC −13.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Mississippi State@#22Texas A&M
32%
68%
30
49
✓
TA&M −7.0
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Kansas StateUpset
86%
14%
41
48
✗
OU −18.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
28%
72%
24
6
✗
PUR −9.0
–
–
Final
#18Iowa@Northwestern
73%
27%
20
0
✓
IOWA −10.4
–
–
Final
#9Wisconsin@#1Ohio State
18%
82%
7
38
✓
OSU −14.3
–
–
Final
Liberty@Rutgers
57%
43%
34
44
✗
LIB −3.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
39%
61%
16
12
✗
PITT −4.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@ArmyUpset
19%
80%
34
29
✗
ARMY −13.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
7.1%
93%
10
49
✓
WMU −23.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@South Alabama
96%
3.5%
30
3
✓
APP −29.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Rice
69%
31%
20
6
✓
USM −8.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Wyoming
17%
83%
3
31
✓
WYO −14.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Ball State
40%
60%
34
21
✗
BALL −3.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Marshall
39%
61%
23
26
✓
MRSH −3.8
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
New Mexico State@Georgia Southern
16%
84%
7
41
✓
GASO −15.4
–
–
Final
#8Auburn@#4LSU
32%
68%
20
23
✓
LSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#19Iowa StateUpset
29%
71%
34
27
✗
ISU −8.5
–
–
Final
#16Texas@TCUUpset
63%
37%
27
37
✗
TEX −5.7
–
–
Final
Indiana@Nebraska
49%
51%
38
31
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Maryland@#25Minnesota
28%
72%
10
52
✓
MINN −8.8
–
–
Final
#6Penn State@#21Michigan State
68%
32%
28
7
✓
PSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Florida State
31%
69%
17
35
✓
FSU −7.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Louisville
60%
40%
21
28
✗
UVA −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@Stanford
26%
74%
31
41
✓
STAN −9.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Charlotte
59%
41%
38
39
✗
UNT −4.1
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
17
50
✓
MTSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Old Dominion
82%
18%
41
3
✓
FAU −14.8
–
–
Final
UConn@UMass
60%
40%
56
35
✓
CONN −4.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Navy
35%
65%
38
41
✓
NAVY −5.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Northern Illinois
10%
90%
0
49
✓
NIU −19.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
37%
63%
20
43
✓
BUF −4.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
35%
65%
34
37
✓
TOL −5.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
42%
58%
23
16
✗
KENT −2.7
–
–
Final
USF@East Carolina
55%
45%
45
20
✓
USF −2.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Tennessee
59%
41%
21
41
✗
SC −4.0
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
38%
62%
17
20
✓
UNC −4.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico
65%
35%
45
31
✓
HAW −6.7
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Arkansas@#2Alabama
0.5%
>99%
7
48
✓
ALA −41.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas
60%
40%
34
37
✗
TTU −4.7
–
–
Final
#20UCF@Temple
71%
29%
63
21
✓
UCF −9.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulsa
76%
24%
42
41
✓
MEM −11.8
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
19%
81%
14
38
✓
ARST −13.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia State
48%
52%
33
52
✓
GAST −0.4
–
–
Final
#24Missouri@KentuckyUpset
58%
42%
7
29
✗
MIZ −3.8
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@#14Michigan
52%
48%
14
45
✗
ND −1.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@#3Clemson
2.6%
97%
7
59
✓
CLEM −30.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UCLA
56%
44%
32
42
✗
ASU −2.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Fresno StateUpset
9.9%
90%
41
31
✗
FRES −20.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
California@#13Utah
12%
88%
0
35
✓
UTAH −18.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Air Force
35%
65%
7
31
✓
AF −5.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@#11Oregon
18%
82%
35
37
✓
ORE −14.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
71%
29%
20
17
✓
SDSU −9.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
91%
9.1%
42
21
✓
LT −21.8
–
–