Week 13 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Tue, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois

37%
63%

45
17

✗

NIU −4.7

–

–

Final

Ohio@Bowling Green

82%
18%

66
24

✓

OHIO −15.2

–

–

Wed, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Akron@Miami (OH)

3.7%
96%

17
20

✓

M-OH −28.3

–

–

Final

Toledo@Buffalo

33%
67%

30
49

✓

BUF −6.7

–

–

Thu, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

NC State@Georgia Tech

48%
52%

26
28

✓

GT −0.5

–

–

Fri, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Colorado State@Wyoming

20%
80%

7
17

✓

WYO −12.8

–

–

Sat, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final

Kansas@#22Iowa State

7.2%
93%

31
41

✓

ISU −22.9

–

–

Final

Oklahoma State@West Virginia

66%
34%

20
13

✓

OKST −7.2

–

–

Final

Illinois@#15Iowa

13%
87%

10
19

✓

IOWA −17.6

–

–

Final

Michigan State@Rutgers

90%
9.8%

27
0

✓

MSU −21.1

–

–

Final

#17Minnesota@Northwestern

80%
20%

38
22

✓

MINN −13.8

–

–

Final

#6Penn State@#1Ohio State

17%
83%

17
28

✓

OSU −14.9

–

–

Final

Liberty@Virginia

9.8%
90%

27
55

✓

UVA −20.2

–

–

Final

BYU@UMass

99%
1.1%

56
24

✓

BYU −37.3

–

–

Final

#21UCF@Tulane

67%
33%

34
31

✓

UCF −7.5

–

–

Final

East Carolina@UConn

69%
31%

31
24

✓

ECU −8.3

–

–

Final

Ball State@Kent State

46%
54%

38
41

✓

KENT −1.2

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Georgia State

18%
82%

15
28

✓

GAST −14.2

–

–

Final

Air Force@New Mexico

91%
9.0%

44
22

✓

AF −21.8

–

–

Final

Boston College@#14Notre Dame

9.9%
90%

7
40

✓

ND −20.2

–

–

Final

Texas State@#25Appalachian State

1.5%
98%

13
35

✓

APP −34.5

–

–

Afternoon 22 games

Final

Georgia Southern@Arkansas State

46%
54%

33
38

✓

ARST −1.2

–

–

Final

#18Texas A&M@#5Georgia

18%
82%

13
19

✓

UGA −14.0

–

–

Final

#20Texas@#23Baylor

48%
52%

10
24

✓

BAY −0.2

–

–

Final

#7Michigan@Indiana

75%
25%

39
14

✓

MICH −11.4

–

–

Final

Nebraska@Maryland

46%
54%

54
7

✗

MD −1.3

–

–

Final

Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech

44%
56%

0
28

✓

VT −1.8

–

–

Final

UCLA@#19USC

16%
84%

35
52

✓

USC −15.8

–

–

Final

Marshall@Charlotte

65%
35%

13
24

✗

MRSH −6.5

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@UAB

52%
48%

14
20

✗

LT −1.4

–

–

Final

North Texas@Rice

60%
40%

14
20

✗

UNT −4.4

–

–

Final

Western Kentucky@Southern Miss

32%
68%

28
10

✗

USM −7.1

–

–

Final

SMU@Navy

41%
59%

28
35

✓

NAVY −3.1

–

–

Final

Purdue@#8Wisconsin

7.4%
93%

24
45

✓

WIS −22.8

–

–

Final

Syracuse@Louisville

38%
62%

34
56

✓

LOU −4.3

–

–

Final

California@Stanford

38%
62%

24
20

✗

STAN −4.3

–

–

Final

UTEP@New Mexico State

28%
72%

35
44

✓

NMSU −8.7

–

–

Final

San Jose State@UNLV

54%
46%

35
38

✗

SJSU −2.1

–

–

Final

Memphis@USF

77%
23%

49
10

✓

MEM −12.1

–

–

Final

Old Dominion@Middle Tennessee

16%
84%

17
38

✓

MTSU −15.6

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@Louisiana-Monroe

43%
57%

42
45

✓

ULM −2.4

–

–

Final

Troy@Louisiana

19%
80%

3
53

✓

UL −13.3

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@UTSA

90%
10%

40
26

✓

FAU −20.9

–

–

Prime time 6 games

Final

Tennessee@Missouri

40%
60%

24
20

✗

MIZ −3.4

–

–

Final

Duke@Wake Forest

35%
65%

27
39

✓

WAKE −5.7

–

–

Final

#12Oregon@Arizona StateUpset

77%
23%

28
31

✗

ORE −12.4

–

–

Final

Houston@Tulsa

50%
50%

24
14

✗

HOU −0.3

–

–

Final

TCU@#11Oklahoma

15%
86%

24
28

✓

OU −16.5

–

–

Final

Oregon State@Washington State

22%
78%

53
54

✓

WSU −11.8

–

–

Late night 5 games

Final

#10Utah@Arizona

91%
8.6%

35
7

✓

UTAH −22.3

–

–

Final

#16Washington@ColoradoUpset

79%
21%

14
20

✗

WASH −13.6

–

–

Final

Boise State@Utah State

62%
38%

56
21

✓

BOIS −5.2

–

–

Final

Nevada@Fresno StateUpset

16%
84%

35
28

✗

FRES −15.6

–

–

Final

San Diego State@Hawaii

48%
52%

11
14

✓

HAW −0.3

–

–

Sun, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

Arkansas@#4LSU

0.7%
99%

20
56

✓

LSU −39.2

–

–

Final

Kansas State@Texas Tech

51%
49%

30
27

✓

KSU −1.0

–

–

Final

Miami (FL)@FIUUpset

86%
14%

24
30

✗

MIA −17.6

–

–

Final

Temple@#24Cincinnati

19%
81%

13
15

✓

CIN −13.7

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM ET	Western Carolina at #2 Alabama	Alabama −77.5	>99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM ET	Samford at #9 Auburn	Auburn −50.8	>99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 3:30 PM ET	UT Martin at Kentucky	Kentucky −43.3	>99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 7:30 PM ET	Abilene Christian at Mississippi State	Mississippi State −50.1	>99%
Sat, Nov 23 · 3:30 PM ET	East Tennessee State at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt −26.3	95%
Sat, Nov 23 · 3:30 PM ET	Mercer at North Carolina	North Carolina −33.9	98%