The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 64 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 7

Wilder than 7% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 17.0 expected

  • Biggest shockWest Virginia over TCU22% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upSouth Alabama over Arkansas State23% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Illinois29% chance · won 29-10

Upsets

Tue, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Ohio@Akron
91%
8.8%
52
3
✓
OHIO −22.0
–
–

Wed, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
65%
35%
14
17
✗
WMU −6.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
30%
70%
20
21
✓
MSST −7.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Texas Tech@#21Texas
21%
79%
24
49
✓
TEX −12.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
37%
63%
30
39
✓
UVA −4.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
5.6%
94%
7
49
✓
BUF −25.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
40%
60%
34
26
✗
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
45%
55%
27
41
✓
BALL −1.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
40%
60%
7
49
✓
CMU −3.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@Arkansas
77%
23%
24
14
✓
MIZ −12.4
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@Nebraska
69%
31%
27
24
✓
IOWA −8.3
–
–

Afternoon 6 games

Final
Boise State@Colorado State
87%
13%
31
24
✓
BOIS −18.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#24Memphis
38%
62%
24
34
✓
MEM −4.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#19Washington
28%
72%
13
31
✓
WASH −8.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@TCUUpset
22%
78%
20
17
✗
TCU −11.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@South AlabamaUpset
77%
23%
30
34
✗
ARST −12.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Troy
81%
19%
48
13
✓
APP −14.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@#20UCF
6.7%
93%
7
34
✓
UCF −23.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
#5Georgia@Georgia Tech
97%
3.4%
52
7
✓
UGA −29.6
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
32%
68%
13
45
✓
UK −6.9
–
–
Final
#2Clemson@South Carolina
91%
8.6%
38
3
✓
CLEM −22.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
29%
71%
29
10
✗
ILL −8.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
56%
44%
44
41
✓
IU −3.0
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#6Michigan
68%
32%
56
27
✓
OSU −8.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Marshall
28%
72%
27
30
✓
MRSH −8.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
64%
36%
49
24
✓
TLSA −6.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@Coastal Carolina
23%
77%
21
24
✓
CCU −11.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
55%
44%
30
39
✗
WAKE −2.7
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Old Dominion
66%
34%
38
22
✓
CLT −7.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
32%
68%
26
31
✓
WKU −6.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Liberty
15%
85%
28
49
✓
LIB −15.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
23%
77%
6
20
✓
AF −11.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Rice@UTEP
74%
26%
30
16
✓
RICE −10.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
34%
66%
33
30
✗
NEV −6.2
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@#11Auburn
65%
35%
45
48
✗
ALA −6.7
–
–
Final
#22Baylor@Kansas
84%
16%
61
6
✓
BAY −16.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@Michigan State
18%
82%
16
19
✓
MSU −14.3
–
–
Final
#8Wisconsin@#16Minnesota
60%
40%
38
17
✓
WIS −4.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#7Penn State
0.4%
>99%
6
27
✓
PSU −42.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
40%
60%
26
19
✗
PITT −3.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Duke
60%
40%
17
27
✗
MIA −4.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Florida Atlantic
28%
72%
17
34
✓
FAU −8.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
10%
90%
27
41
✓
LT −19.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Temple
4.0%
96%
17
49
✓
TEM −27.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
13%
87%
10
28
✓
TENN −17.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#14Oregon
8.4%
92%
10
24
✓
ORE −21.7
–
–
Final
#10Notre Dame@Stanford
84%
16%
45
24
✓
ND −16.0
–
–
Final
UAB@North Texas
48%
52%
26
21
✗
UNT −0.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
78%
22%
38
25
✓
USU −12.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
36%
64%
20
37
✓
SMU −5.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Georgia Southern
31%
69%
10
38
✓
GASO −7.5
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
Florida State@#13Florida
12%
88%
17
40
✓
FLA −18.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@#9Utah
6.3%
94%
15
45
✓
UTAH −24.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
8.2%
92%
30
31
✓
UL −21.9
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma@#25Oklahoma State
67%
33%
34
16
✓
OU −7.7
–
–
Final
BYU@San Diego State
56%
44%
3
13
✗
BYU −2.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Arizona@Arizona State
19%
81%
14
24
✓
ASU −13.8
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
45%
55%
28
18
✗
UCLA −1.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
63%
37%
16
17
✗
FRES −5.9
–
–
Final
Army@Hawaii
47%
53%
31
52
✓
HAW −0.8
–
–

Sun, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#17Texas A&M@#4LSU
16%
84%
7
50
✓
LSU −15.2
–
–
Final
#23Iowa State@Kansas StateUpset
54%
46%
17
27
✗
ISU −2.3
–
–
Final
North Carolina@NC State
66%
34%
41
10
✓
UNC −7.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Houston
60%
40%
56
41
✓
NAVY −4.6
–
–