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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 13

Wilder than 13% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over Middle Tennessee19% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Kansas State20% chance · won 24-20
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Duke25% chance · won 49-6

Upsets

Tue, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Akron
81%
19%
42
14
✓
EMU −14.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
50%
50%
37
34
✗
WMU −0.5
–
–

Wed, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
12%
88%
3
44
✓
M-OH −18.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
35%
65%
31
28
✗
TOL −5.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Pittsburgh
44%
56%
27
34
✓
PITT −1.9
–
–

Fri, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
49%
51%
7
17
✓
SDSU −0.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Kent State
56%
44%
27
30
✗
BUF −3.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
#2Alabama@Mississippi State
88%
12%
38
7
✓
ALA −18.8
–
–
Final
#13Florida@Missouri
70%
30%
23
6
✓
FLA −9.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
10%
90%
13
31
✓
OKST −20.0
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
53%
47%
33
31
✓
TCU −1.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@#6Penn State
11%
89%
27
34
✓
PSU −19.1
–
–
Final
#25Michigan State@#9Michigan
18%
82%
10
44
✓
MICH −14.2
–
–
Final
#10Wisconsin@Nebraska
83%
17%
37
21
✓
WIS −15.5
–
–
Final
UMass@Northwestern
0.9%
99%
6
45
✓
NU −38.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Temple
55%
45%
21
29
✗
TULN −2.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@UAB
7.2%
93%
10
37
✓
UAB −23.0
–
–
Final
Navy@#14Notre Dame
19%
81%
20
52
✓
ND −13.4
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@Arkansas State
25%
75%
27
28
✓
ARST −10.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia Southern
29%
71%
29
51
✓
GASO −8.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Texas State
70%
30%
63
27
✓
TROY −8.6
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@#7Auburn
48%
52%
21
14
✗
AUB −0.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
38
14
✓
UK −10.3
–
–
Final
#18Texas@#22Iowa State
44%
56%
21
23
✓
ISU −1.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas StateUpset
20%
80%
24
20
✗
KSU −12.8
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Rutgers
>99%
0.1%
56
21
✓
OSU −49.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#3Clemson
3.1%
97%
3
52
✓
CLEM −29.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
57%
43%
45
0
✓
VT −3.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
61%
39%
45
27
✓
MEM −5.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
38%
62%
45
44
✗
BALL −4.3
–
–
Final
#17Minnesota@#15Iowa
36%
64%
19
23
✓
IOWA −5.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Duke
25%
75%
49
6
✗
DUKE −10.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
40%
60%
21
26
✓
USU −3.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
64%
36%
21
7
✓
HAW −6.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
35%
65%
22
49
✓
WSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Middle TennesseeUpset
19%
81%
31
28
✗
MTSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
94%
6.5%
37
27
✓
UL −24.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTSA
84%
16%
36
17
✓
USM −16.5
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
South Carolina@#20Texas A&M
28%
72%
6
30
✓
TA&M −8.8
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma@#24Baylor
69%
31%
34
31
✓
OU −8.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@NC State
52%
48%
34
20
✓
LOU −1.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
55%
45%
34
35
✗
ASU −2.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
82%
18%
56
27
✓
APP −15.1
–
–
Final
UCLA@#12Utah
10%
90%
3
49
✓
UTAH −19.9
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
New Mexico@Boise State
4.0%
96%
9
42
✓
BOIS −27.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#11Oregon
4.4%
96%
6
34
✓
ORE −27.0
–
–
Final
#21USC@California
66%
34%
41
17
✓
USC −6.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana Tech@Marshall
50%
50%
10
31
✗
LT −0.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#4LSU@Ole Miss
90%
10%
58
37
✓
LSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
81%
19%
38
21
✓
AF −14.6
–
–
Final
#23Cincinnati@USF
81%
19%
20
17
✓
CIN −14.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM ET Alabama State at Florida State Florida State −41.4 >99%
Sat, Nov 16 · 12:00 PM ET VMI at Army Army −51.1 >99%
Sat, Nov 16 · 4:00 PM ET Incarnate Word at New Mexico State New Mexico State −26.9 96%
Sat, Nov 16 · 3:00 PM ET Idaho State at BYU BYU −37.9 99%