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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 13.2 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Southern over Appalachian State10% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upMiami (FL) over Florida State35% chance · won 27-10
  • Runner-upOregon State over Arizona39% chance · won 56-38

Upsets

Fri, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
West Virginia@#25Baylor
19%
80%
14
17
✓
BAY −13.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian StateUpset
10.0%
90%
24
21
✗
APP −20.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
UTSA@#20Texas A&M
0.7%
99%
14
45
✓
TA&M −39.2
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@Maryland
81%
19%
38
7
✓
MICH −14.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Purdue
44%
56%
27
31
✓
PUR −1.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
44%
56%
58
27
✗
SYR −2.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
29%
71%
10
44
✓
WAKE −8.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@FIU
17%
83%
17
24
✓
FIU −15.1
–
–
Final
Liberty@UMass
87%
13%
63
21
✓
LIB −18.4
–
–
Final
Houston@#17UCF
13%
87%
29
44
✓
UCF −17.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Eastern Michigan
49%
51%
43
14
✗
BUF −0.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
53%
47%
10
48
✗
NIU −1.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
32%
68%
6
35
✓
BGSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#13Notre Dame
6.0%
94%
20
21
✓
ND −24.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Troy@Coastal Carolina
43%
57%
35
36
✓
CCU −2.4
–
–
Final
#6Georgiavs#12Florida
61%
39%
24
17
✓
UGA −5.0
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
68%
32%
38
10
✓
KSU −7.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Oklahoma State
40%
60%
27
34
✓
OKST −3.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Illinois
10%
90%
10
38
✓
ILL −19.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Florida State
35%
65%
27
10
✗
FSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Charlotte
60%
40%
20
34
✗
MTSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Rice
68%
32%
20
7
✓
MRSH −8.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
5.5%
94%
26
52
✓
UNT −25.3
–
–
Final
Army@Air Force
16%
84%
13
17
✓
AF −15.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
36%
64%
17
37
✓
CSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
56%
44%
48
41
✓
ARST −2.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
71%
29%
54
24
✓
MSST −9.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
64%
36%
20
10
✓
PITT −6.1
–
–
Final
#11Utah@#16Washington
49%
51%
33
28
✗
UTAH −0.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Western Kentucky
60%
40%
35
24
✓
FAU −4.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
20%
80%
26
38
✓
TULN −12.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
39%
61%
56
38
✗
ARIZ −3.9
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
5.9%
94%
3
31
✓
UL −24.6
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Ole Miss@#7Auburn
6.0%
94%
14
20
✓
AUB −24.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Tennessee
18%
82%
7
30
✓
TENN −14.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
25%
75%
3
34
✓
IU −10.1
–
–
Final
#22Cincinnati@East Carolina
93%
6.6%
46
43
✓
CIN −24.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
15%
86%
7
24
✓
SC −16.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
42%
58%
38
31
✗
UNC −2.7
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
42%
58%
48
54
✓
MEM −2.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@UCLA
35%
65%
14
31
✓
UCLA −5.6
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
BYU@Utah State
40%
60%
42
14
✗
USU −3.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@San Jose State
84%
16%
52
42
✓
BOIS −16.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Nevada
37%
63%
10
21
✓
NEV −4.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
55%
45%
41
38
✓
FRES −2.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Navy@UConn
95%
5.3%
56
10
✓
NAVY −26.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#14Oregon@#18USC
47%
53%
56
24
✗
USC −0.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 2 · 4:00 PM ET Wofford at #3 Clemson Clemson −61.0 >99%