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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2019

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 40

Wilder than 40% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia Tech over Miami (FL)23% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upStanford over Washington27% chance · won 23-13
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Oklahoma State29% chance · won 45-35

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia Southern@South Alabama
76%
24%
20
17
✓
GASO −11.8
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico@San Jose State
48%
52%
21
32
✓
SJSU −1.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Temple@East Carolina
82%
18%
27
17
✓
TEM −15.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Utah State@#7LSU
8.2%
92%
6
42
✓
LSU −23.2
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@Kansas
96%
4.4%
45
20
✓
OU −28.2
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma State@Texas TechUpset
71%
29%
35
45
✗
OKST −9.3
–
–
Final
#17Iowa@#14Michigan
42%
58%
3
10
✓
MICH −3.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
85%
15%
48
7
✓
MD −17.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#8Penn State
6.6%
93%
7
35
✓
PSU −25.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@#10Wisconsin
2.0%
98%
0
48
✓
WIS −34.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
56%
44%
42
33
✓
TULN −2.5
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
79%
21%
48
22
✓
USF −13.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
45%
55%
39
41
✓
LOU −2.2
–
–
Final
#25TCU@Iowa StateUpset
53%
47%
24
49
✗
TCU −1.1
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
59%
41%
16
42
✗
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
#5Auburn@#16Florida
61%
39%
13
24
✗
AUB −4.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas State
45%
55%
31
12
✗
KSU −2.1
–
–
Final
#11Texas@West Virginia
75%
25%
42
31
✓
TEX −11.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
27%
73%
17
40
✓
MINN −10.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Miami (FL)Upset
22%
78%
42
35
✗
MIA −12.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Middle Tennessee
50%
50%
13
24
✓
MTSU −0.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#9Notre Dame
0.1%
>99%
0
52
✓
ND −52.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
49%
51%
25
34
✓
NAVY −0.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
34%
66%
27
20
✗
NIU −6.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
46%
54%
21
20
✗
BUF −1.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
41%
59%
24
31
✓
TOL −4.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia State
71%
29%
38
52
✗
ARST −9.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisiana-Monroe
81%
19%
52
33
✓
MEM −14.4
–
–
Final
Troy@#21Missouri
9.8%
90%
10
42
✓
MIZ −21.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Nebraska
37%
63%
10
13
✓
NEB −5.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
72%
28%
38
22
✓
UNC −9.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
33%
67%
35
30
✗
COLO −7.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Old Dominion
58%
42%
20
3
✓
WKU −3.2
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#4Georgia@Tennessee
91%
9.1%
43
14
✓
UGA −22.1
–
–
Final
UMass@FIU
13%
87%
0
44
✓
FIU −18.8
–
–
Final
Rice@UAB
29%
71%
20
35
✓
UAB −9.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
40%
60%
6
31
✓
MISS −4.2
–
–
Final
#15Michigan State@#2Ohio State
14%
86%
10
34
✓
OSU −18.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
18%
82%
37
43
✓
SMU −15.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UCLA
37%
63%
48
31
✗
UCLA −5.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
70%
30%
24
10
✓
SDSU −8.4
–
–
Final
#12Washington@StanfordUpset
73%
27%
13
23
✗
WASH −10.0
–
–
Final
Boise State@UNLV
88%
12%
38
13
✓
BOIS −19.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#19UCF@CincinnatiUpset
54%
46%
24
27
✗
UCF −1.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Duke
34%
66%
33
30
✗
DUKE −7.1
–
–
Final
California@#13Oregon
17%
83%
7
17
✓
ORE −16.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@UTEP
57%
42%
26
16
✓
UTSA −3.0
–
–
Final
Liberty@New Mexico State
68%
32%
20
13
✓
LIB −7.7
–
–